We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma-Poisson construction--a natural choice for count data--and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an efficient MCMC inference algorithmthat advances recent work on augmentation schemes for inference in negative binomial models. Finally, we demonstrate the model's inductive bias using a variety of real-world data sets, showing that it exhibits superior predictive performance over other models and infers highly interpretable latent structure.

Solving statistical learning problems often involves nonconvex optimization. Despite the empirical success of nonconvex statistical optimization methods, their global dynamics, especially convergence to the desirable local minima, remain less well understood in theory. In this paper, we propose a new analytic paradigm based on diffusion processes to characterize the global dynamics of nonconvex statistical optimization. As a concrete example, we study stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for the tensor decomposition formulation of independent component analysis. In particular, we cast different phases of SGD into diffusion processes, i.e., solutions to stochastic differential equations. Initialized from an unstable equilibrium, the global dynamics of SGD transit over three consecutive phases: (i) an unstable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process slowly departing from the initialization, (ii) the solution to an ordinary differential equation, which quickly evolves towards the desirable local minimum, and (iii) a stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process oscillating around the desirable local minimum. Our proof techniques are based upon Stroock and Varadhan’s weak convergence of Markov chains to diffusion processes, which are of independent interest.

We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the posterior embedding estimator, which is faster and has comparable performance to the squared regularization in kernel Bayes' rule. This regularization coincides with a former thresholding approach used in kernel POMDPs whose consistency remains to be established. Our theoretical work solves this open problem and provides consistency analysis in regression settings. Based on our optimizational formulation, we propose a flexible Bayesian posterior regularization framework which for the first time enables us to put regularization at the distribution level. We apply this method to nonparametric state-space filtering tasks with extremely nonlinear dynamics and show performance gains over all other baselines.

Matching users to the right items at the right time is a fundamental task in recommendation systems. As users interact with different items over time, users' and items' feature may evolve and co-evolve over time. Traditional models based on static latent features or discretizing time into epochs can become ineffective for capturing the fine-grained temporal dynamics in the user-item interactions. We propose a coevolutionary latent feature process model that accurately captures the coevolving nature of users' and items' feature. To learn parameters, we design an efficient convex optimization algorithm with a novel low rank space sharing constraints. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in user behavior prediction compared to state-of-the-arts.

In classical reinforcement learning agents accept arbitrary short term loss for long term gain when exploring their environment. This is infeasible for safety critical applications such as robotics, where even a single unsafe action may cause system failure or harm the environment. In this paper, we address the problem of safely exploring finite Markov decision processes (MDP). We define safety in terms of an a priori unknown safety constraint that depends on states and actions and satisfies certain regularity conditions expressed via a Gaussian process prior. We develop a novel algorithm, SAFEMDP, for this task and prove that it completely explores the safely reachable part of the MDP without violating the safety constraint. To achieve this, it cautiously explores safe states and actions in order to gain statistical confidence about the safety of unvisited state-action pairs from noisy observations collected while navigating the environment. Moreover, the algorithm explicitly considers reachability when exploring the MDP, ensuring that it does not get stuck in any state with no safe way out. We demonstrate our method on digital terrain models for the task of exploring an unknown map with a rover.

We study probability measures induced by set functions with constraints. Such measures arise in a variety of real-world settings, where prior knowledge, resource limitations, or other pragmatic considerations impose constraints. We consider the task of rapidly sampling from such constrained measures, and develop fast Markov chain samplers for them. Our first main result is for MCMC sampling from Strongly Rayleigh (SR) measures, for which we present sharp polynomial bounds on the mixing time. As a corollary, this result yields a fast mixing sampler for Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), yielding (to our knowledge) the first provably fast MCMC sampler for DPPs since their inception over four decades ago. Beyond SR measures, we develop MCMC samplers for probabilistic models with hard constraints and identify sufficient conditions under which their chains mix rapidly. We illustrate our claims by empirically verifying the dependence of mixing times on the key factors governing our theoretical bounds.

Observable operator models (OOMs) and related models are one of the most important and powerful tools for modeling and analyzing stochastic systems. They exactly describe dynamics of finite-rank systems and can be efficiently and consistently estimated through spectral learning under the assumption of identically distributed data. In this paper, we investigate the properties of spectral learning without this assumption due to the requirements of analyzing large-time scale systems, and show that the equilibrium dynamics of a system can be extracted from nonequilibrium observation data by imposing an equilibrium constraint. In addition, we propose a binless extension of spectral learning for continuous data. In comparison with the other continuous-valued spectral algorithms, the binless algorithm can achieve consistent estimation of equilibrium dynamics with only linear complexity.

Factorial Hidden Markov Models (FHMMs) are powerful models for sequential data but they do not scale well with long sequences. We propose a scalable inference and learning algorithm for FHMMs that draws on ideas from the stochastic variational inference, neural network and copula literatures. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed algorithm requires no message passing procedure among latent variables and can be distributed to a network of computers to speed up learning. Our experiments corroborate that the proposed algorithm does not introduce further approximation bias compared to the proven structured mean-field algorithm, and achieves better performance with long sequences and large FHMMs.

For an autonomous system to be helpful to humans and to pose no unwarranted risks, it needs to align its values with those of the humans in its environment in such a way that its actions contribute to the maximization of value for the humans. We propose a formal definition of the value alignment problem as cooperative inverse reinforcement learning (CIRL). A CIRL problem is a cooperative, partial- information game with two agents, human and robot; both are rewarded according to the human’s reward function, but the robot does not initially know what this is. In contrast to classical IRL, where the human is assumed to act optimally in isolation, optimal CIRL solutions produce behaviors such as active teaching, active learning, and communicative actions that are more effective in achieving value alignment. We show that computing optimal joint policies in CIRL games can be reduced to solving a POMDP, prove that optimality in isolation is suboptimal in CIRL, and derive an approximate CIRL algorithm.

The correlation between events is ubiquitous and important for temporal events modelling. In many cases, the correlation exists between not only events' emitted observations, but also their arrival times. State space models (e.g., hidden Markov model) and stochastic interaction point process models (e.g., Hawkes process) have been studied extensively yet separately for the two types of correlations in the past. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach that considers both types of correlations via unifying and generalizing hidden semi-Markov model and interaction point process model. The proposed approach can simultaneously model both the observations and arrival times of temporal events, and determine the number of latent states from data. A Metropolis-within-particle-Gibbs sampler with ancestor resampling is developed for efficient posterior inference. The approach is tested on both synthetic and real-world data with promising outcomes.