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 Markov Models


A Goal-Based Movement Model for Continuous Multi-Agent Tasks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite increasing attention paid to the need for fast, scalable methods to analyze next-generation neuroscience data, comparatively little attention has been paid to the development of similar methods for behavioral analysis. Just as the volume and complexity of brain data have grown, behavioral paradigms in systems neuroscience have likewise become more naturalistic and less constrained, necessitating an increase in the flexibility and scalability of the models used to study them. In particular, key assumptions made in the analysis of typical decision paradigms --- optimality; analytic tractability; discrete, low-dimensional action spaces --- may be untenable in richer tasks. Here, using the case of a two-player, real-time, continuous strategic game as an example, we show how the use of modern machine learning methods allows us to relax each of these assumptions. Following an inverse reinforcement learning approach, we are able to succinctly characterize the joint distribution over players' actions via a generative model that allows us to simulate realistic game play. We compare simulated play from a number of generative time series models and show that ours successfully resists mode collapse while generating trajectories with the rich variability of real behavior. Together, these methods offer a rich class of models for the analysis of continuous action tasks at the single-trial level.


Tensor network language model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new statistical model suitable for machine learning of systems with long distance correlations such as natural languages. The model is based on directed acyclic graph decorated by multi-linear tensor maps in the vertices and vector spaces in the edges, called tensor network. Such tensor networks have been previously employed for effective numerical computation of the renormalization group flow on the space of effective quantum field theories and lattice models of statistical mechanics. We provide explicit algebro-geometric analysis of the parameter moduli space for tree graphs, discuss model properties and applications such as statistical translation.


Time-lagged autoencoders: Deep learning of slow collective variables for molecular kinetics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Inspired by the success of deep learning techniques in the physical and chemical sciences, we apply a modification of an autoencoder type deep neural network to the task of dimension reduction of molecular dynamics data. We can show that our time-lagged autoencoder reliably finds low-dimensional embeddings for highdimensional feature spaces which capture the slow dynamics of the underlying stochastic processes-beyond the capabilities of linear dimension reduction techniques. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation allows us to probe the full spatiotemporal detail of molecular processes, but its usefulness has long been limited by the sampling problem. If we do not want to choose the library of feature functions by hand, but instead want to optimize the nonlinear mapping E by employing a neural network, we have again two options: (1) employ the variational approach. In this paper we investigate option (2), which naturally leads to using a time-lagged autoencoder (TAE).


Robust and Efficient Transfer Learning with Hidden-Parameter Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new formulation of the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework for modeling families of related tasks using low-dimensional latent embeddings. Our new framework correctly models the joint uncertainty in the latent parameters and the state space. We also replace the original Gaussian Process-based model with a Bayesian Neural Network, enabling more scalable inference. Thus, we expand the scope of the HiP-MDP to applications with higher dimensions and more complex dynamics.


A Markov Chain Theory Approach to Characterizing the Minimax Optimality of Stochastic Gradient Descent (for Least Squares)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work provides a simplified proof of the statistical minimax optimality of (iterate averaged) stochastic gradient descent (SGD), for the special case of least squares. This result is obtained by analyzing SGD as a stochastic process and by sharply characterizing the stationary covariance matrix of this process. The finite rate optimality characterization captures the constant factors and addresses model mis-specification.


Learning Hidden Quantum Markov Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HQMMs) can be thought of as quantum probabilistic graphical models that can model sequential data. We extend previous work on HQMMs with three contributions: (1) we show how classical hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be simulated on a quantum circuit, (2) we reformulate HQMMs by relaxing the constraints for modeling HMMs on quantum circuits, and (3) we present a learning algorithm to estimate the parameters of an HQMM from data. While our algorithm requires further optimization to handle larger datasets, we are able to evaluate our algorithm using several synthetic datasets. We show that on HQMM generated data, our algorithm learns HQMMs with the same number of hidden states and predictive accuracy as the true HQMMs, while HMMs learned with the Baum-Welch algorithm require more states to match the predictive accuracy.


Mastering Machine Learning Algorithms PACKT Books

@machinelearnbot

Machine learning is a subset of AI which aims at making modern-day computers smarter, and intelligent. The real power of machine learning resides in its algorithms which make even the most difficult things possible for machines to handle. However, with the advancement in the technology and requirement of data, our machines will have to be smarter than they are today to meet the overwhelming needs, and knowing how different algorithms work to make ML effective is the need of the hour. Mastering Machine Learning Algorithms is your tool, your guide to get to grips quickly with the most widely used algorithms. You start with learning various ML models along with an introduction to semi-supervised learning.


Mastering Machine Learning with scikit-learn PACKT Books

@machinelearnbot

This book examines machine learning models including logistic regression, decision trees, and support vector machines, and applies them to common problems such as categorizing documents and classifying images. It begins with the fundamentals of machine learning, introducing you to the supervised-unsupervised spectrum, the uses of training and test data, and evaluating models. You will learn how to use generalized linear models in regression problems, as well as solve problems with text and categorical features. You will be acquainted with the use of logistic regression, regularization, and the various loss functions that are used by generalized linear models. The book will also walk you through an example project that prompts you to label the most uncertain training examples.


Linear-Time Algorithm in Bayesian Image Denoising based on Gaussian Markov Random Field

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian image processing [1] based on a probabilistic graphical model has a long and rich history [2]. In Bayesian image processing, one constructs a posterior distribution and then infers restored images based on the posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is derived from a prior distribution that captures the statistical properties of the images. One of the major challenges of Bayesian image processing is the construction of an effective prior for the images. For this purpose, a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model (or Gaussian graphical model) is a possible choice.


Getting Started with Particle Metropolis-Hastings for Inference in Nonlinear Dynamical Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm (and the particle filter within) together with the reader. This final implementation is also available as the package pmhtutorial in the CRAN repository. Throughout the tutorial, we provide some intuition as to how the algorithm operates and discuss some solutions to problems that might occur in practice. To illustrate the use of PMH, we consider parameter inference in a linear Gaussian state-space model with synthetic data and a nonlinear stochastic volatility model with real-world data.