As technology becomes more advanced, those who design, use and are otherwise affected by it want to know that it will perform correctly, and understand why it does what it does, and how to use it appropriately. In essence they want to be able to trust the systems that are being designed. In this survey we present assurances that are the method by which users can understand how to trust autonomous systems. Trust between humans and autonomy is reviewed, and the implications for the design of assurances are highlighted. A survey of existing research related to assurances is presented. Much of the surveyed research originates from fields such as interpretable, comprehensible, transparent, and explainable machine learning, as well as human-computer interaction, human-robot interaction, and e-commerce. Several key ideas are extracted from this work in order to refine the definition of assurances. The design of assurances is found to be highly dependent not only on the capabilities of the autonomous system, but on the characteristics of the human user, and the appropriate trust-related behaviors. Several directions for future research are identified and discussed.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a nonparametric inference method, which iteratively transports a set of randomly initialized particles to approximate a differentiable target distribution, along the direction that maximally decreases the KL divergence within a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Compared to Monte Carlo methods, SVGD is particle-efficient because of the repulsive force induced by kernels. In this paper, we develop the first analysis about the high dimensional performance of SVGD and emonstrate that the repulsive force drops at least polynomially with increasing dimensions, which results in poor marginal approximation. To improve the marginal inference of SVGD, we propose Marginal SVGD (M-SVGD), which incorporates structural information described by a Markov random field (MRF) into kernels. M-SVGD inherits the particle efficiency of SVGD and can be used as a general purpose marginal inference tool for MRFs. Experimental results on grid based Markov random fields show the effectiveness of our methods.

We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness allowing deviation from a canonical pattern of transitions and emissions, under the hypothesis that the averaged features of hidden states would serve to informatively characterize classes of patients/controls. We propose a Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a latent-state model, emitting 3D-acceleration vectors. Transitions and emissions are inferred from data. We fit separate models per unique device and training label. Hidden Markov Models (HMM) force geometric distributions of the duration spent at each state before transition to a new state. Instead, our HSMM allows us to specify the distribution of state duration. This modified version is more effective because we are interested more in each state's duration than the sequence of distinct states, allowing inclusion of these durations the feature vector.

Many efforts have been made to use various forms of domain knowledge in malware detection. Currently there exist two common approaches to malware detection without domain knowledge, namely byte n-grams and strings. In this work we explore the feasibility of applying neural networks to malware detection and feature learning. We do this by restricting ourselves to a minimal amount of domain knowledge in order to extract a portion of the Portable Executable (PE) header. By doing this we show that neural networks can learn from raw bytes without explicit feature construction, and perform even better than a domain knowledge approach that parses the PE header into explicit features.

Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks (specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm the quality of our proposal.

We consider the problem of predicting the next observation given a sequence of past observations, and consider the extent to which accurate prediction requires complex algorithms that explicitly leverage long-range dependencies. Perhaps surprisingly, our positive results show that for a broad class of sequences, there is an algorithm that predicts well on average, and bases its predictions only on the most recent few observation together with a set of simple summary statistics of the past observations. Specifically, we show that for any distribution over observations, if the mutual information between past observations and future observations is upper bounded by $I$, then a simple Markov model over the most recent $I/\epsilon$ observations obtains expected KL error $\epsilon$---and hence $\ell_1$ error $\sqrt{\epsilon}$---with respect to the optimal predictor that has access to the entire past and knows the data generating distribution. For a Hidden Markov Model with $n$ hidden states, $I$ is bounded by $\log n$, a quantity that does not depend on the mixing time, and we show that the trivial prediction algorithm based on the empirical frequencies of length $O(\log n/\epsilon)$ windows of observations achieves this error, provided the length of the sequence is $d^{\Omega(\log n/\epsilon)}$, where $d$ is the size of the observation alphabet. We also establish that this result cannot be improved upon, even for the class of HMMs, in the following two senses: First, for HMMs with $n$ hidden states, a window length of $\log n/\epsilon$ is information-theoretically necessary to achieve expected $\ell_1$ error $\sqrt{\epsilon}$. Second, the $d^{\Theta(\log n/\epsilon)}$ samples required to estimate the Markov model for an observation alphabet of size $d$ is necessary for any computationally tractable learning algorithm, assuming the hardness of strongly refuting a certain class of CSPs.

Speech recognition systems have achieved high recognition performance for several tasks. However, the performance of such systems is dependent on the tremendously costly development work of preparing vast amounts of task-matched transcribed speech data for supervised training. The key problem here is the cost of transcribing speech data. The cost is repeatedly required to support new languages and new tasks. Assuming broad network services for transcribing speech data for many users, a system would become more self-sufficient and more useful if it possessed the ability to learn from very light feedback from the users without annoying them. In this paper, we propose a general reinforcement learning framework for speech recognition systems based on the policy gradient method. As a particular instance of the framework, we also propose a hypothesis selection-based reinforcement learning method. The proposed framework provides a new view for several existing training and adaptation methods. The experimental results show that the proposed method improves the recognition performance compared to unsupervised adaptation.

We review the problem of defining and inferring a "state" for a control system based on complex, high-dimensional, highly uncertain measurement streams such as videos. Such a state, or representation, should contain all and only the information needed for control, and discount nuisance variability in the data. It should also have finite complexity, ideally modulated depending on available resources. This representation is what we want to store in memory in lieu of the data, as it "separates" the control task from the measurement process. For the trivial case with no dynamics, a representation can be inferred by minimizing the Information Bottleneck Lagrangian in a function class realized by deep neural networks. The resulting representation has much higher dimension than the data, already in the millions, but it is smaller in the sense of information content, retaining only what is needed for the task. This process also yields representations that are invariant to nuisance factors and having maximally independent components. We extend these ideas to the dynamic case, where the representation is the posterior density of the task variable given the measurements up to the current time, which is in general much simpler than the prediction density maintained by the classical Bayesian filter. Again this can be finitely-parametrized using a deep neural network, and already some applications are beginning to emerge. No explicit assumption of Markovianity is needed; instead, complexity trades off approximation of an optimal representation, including the degree of Markovianity.

We study the problem of learning overcomplete HMMs---those that have many hidden states but a small output alphabet. Despite having significant practical importance, such HMMs are poorly understood with no known positive or negative results for efficient learning. In this paper, we present several new results---both positive and negative---which help define the boundaries between the tractable and intractable settings. Specifically, we show positive results for a large subclass of HMMs whose transition matrices are sparse, well-conditioned, and have small probability mass on short cycles. On the other hand, we show that learning is impossible given only a polynomial number of samples for HMMs with a small output alphabet and whose transition matrices are random regular graphs with large degree. We also discuss these results in the context of learning HMMs which can capture long-term dependencies.

We first removed irrelevant tweets. A step we were able to take thanks to our "Small Data" situation. We then used Jeremy Singer-Vine's markovify -- a Markov chains implementation -- to model Netanyahu's original tweets. That alone actually gave us a pretty good baseline, in a very short time. We also expanded the Markov model to obey sentence structure using spaCy, a part-of-speech tagger.