Dialogue assistants are rapidly becoming an indispensable daily aid. To avoid the significant effort needed to hand-craft the required dialogue flow, the Dialogue Management (DM) module can be cast as a continuous Markov Decision Process (MDP) and trained through Reinforcement Learning (RL). Several RL models have been investigated over recent years. However, the lack of a common benchmarking framework makes it difficult to perform a fair comparison between different models and their capability to generalise to different environments. Therefore, this paper proposes a set of challenging simulated environments for dialogue model development and evaluation. To provide some baselines, we investigate a number of representative parametric algorithms, namely deep reinforcement learning algorithms - DQN, A2C and Natural Actor-Critic and compare them to a non-parametric model, GP-SARSA. Both the environments and policy models are implemented using the publicly available PyDial toolkit and released on-line, in order to establish a testbed framework for further experiments and to facilitate experimental reproducibility.

We analyse multimodal time-series data corresponding to weight, sleep and steps measurements. We focus on predicting whether a user will successfully achieve his/her weight objective. For this, we design several deep long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures, including a novel cross-modal LSTM (X-LSTM), and demonstrate their superiority over baseline approaches. The X-LSTM improves parameter efficiency by processing each modality separately and allowing for information flow between them by way of recurrent cross-connections. We present a general hyperparameter optimisation technique for X-LSTMs, which allows us to significantly improve on the LSTM and a prior state-of-the-art cross-modal approach, using a comparable number of parameters. Finally, we visualise the model's predictions, revealing implications about latent variables in this task.

The TensorFlow Distributions library implements a vision of probability theory adapted to the modern deep-learning paradigm of end-to-end differentiable computation. Building on two basic abstractions, it offers flexible building blocks for probabilistic computation. Distributions provide fast, numerically stable methods for generating samples and computing statistics, e.g., log density. Bijectors provide composable volume-tracking transformations with automatic caching. Together these enable modular construction of high dimensional distributions and transformations not possible with previous libraries (e.g., pixelCNNs, autoregressive flows, and reversible residual networks). They are the workhorse behind deep probabilistic programming systems like Edward and empower fast black-box inference in probabilistic models built on deep-network components. TensorFlow Distributions has proven an important part of the TensorFlow toolkit within Google and in the broader deep learning community.

Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms.

Building machines that can learn from examples, experience, or even from another machines at human level are the main goal of solving AI. That goal in other words is to create a machine that pass the Turing test: when a human is interacting with it, for the human it will not possible to conclude if it he is interacting with a human or a machine [Turing, A.M 1950]. The fundamental algorithms of deep learning were developed in the middle of 20th century. Since them the field was developed as a theory branch of stochastic operations research and computer science, but without any breakthrough application. But, in the last 20 years the synergy between big data sets, specially labeled data, and augmentation of computer power using graphics processor units, those algorithms have been developed in more complex techniques, technologies and reasoning logics enable to achieve several goals as reducing word error rates in speech recognition; cutting the error rate in an image recognition competition [Krizhevsky et al 2012] and beating a human champion at Go [Silver et al 2016].

Markov chains, named after Andrey Markov, are mathematical systems that hop from one "state" (a situation or set of values) to another. For example, if you made a Markov chain model of a baby's behavior, you might include "playing," "eating", "sleeping," and "crying" as states, which together with other behaviors could form a'state space': a list of all possible states. In addition, on top of the state space, a Markov chain tells you the probabilitiy of hopping, or "transitioning," from one state to any other state---e.g., the chance that a baby currently playing will fall asleep in the next five minutes without crying first. A simple, two-state Markov chain is shown below. With two states (A and B) in our state space, there are 4 possible transitions (not 2, because a state can transition back into itself).

We investigate the low-dimensional structure of deterministic transformations between random variables, i.e., transport maps between probability measures. In the context of statistics and machine learning, these transformations can be used to couple a tractable "reference" measure (e.g., a standard Gaussian) with a target measure of interest. Direct simulation from the desired measure can then be achieved by pushing forward reference samples through the map. Yet characterizing such a map---e.g., representing and evaluating it---grows challenging in high dimensions. The central contribution of this paper is to establish a link between the Markov properties of the target measure and the existence of low-dimensional couplings, induced by transport maps that are sparse and/or decomposable. Our analysis not only facilitates the construction of transformations in high-dimensional settings, but also suggests new inference methodologies for continuous non-Gaussian graphical models. For instance, in the context of nonlinear state-space models, we describe new variational algorithms for filtering, smoothing, and sequential parameter inference. These algorithms can be understood as the natural generalization---to the non-Gaussian case---of the square-root Rauch-Tung-Striebel Gaussian smoother.

We present a new algorithm that significantly improves the efficiency of exploration for deep Q-learning agents in dialogue systems. Our agents explore via Thompson sampling, drawing Monte Carlo samples from a Bayes-by-Backprop neural network. Our algorithm learns much faster than common exploration strategies such as $\epsilon$-greedy, Boltzmann, bootstrapping, and intrinsic-reward-based ones. Additionally, we show that spiking the replay buffer with experiences from just a few successful episodes can make Q-learning feasible when it might otherwise fail.

We propose a Las Vegas transformation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs). We denote our approach Markov Chain Las Vegas (MCLV). MCLV gives statistical guarantees in exchange for random running times. MCLV uses a stopping set built from the training data and has maximum number of Markov chain steps K (referred as MCLV-K). We present a MCLV-K gradient estimator (LVS-K) for RBMs and explore the correspondence and differences between LVS-K and Contrastive Divergence (CD-K), with LVS-K significantly outperforming CD-K training RBMs over the MNIST dataset, indicating MCLV to be a promising direction in learning generative models.

New KDnuggets Poll is asking: Which Data Science / Machine Learning methods and tools you used in the past 12 months for work or a real-world project? Please vote below and we will summarize the results and examine the trends in early December. Poll Which Data Science / Machine Learning methods and tools you used in the past 12 months for a real-world application? Kaggle survey asked: What data science methods are used at work? and the top answers were Gradient Boosted Machines