Reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable settings is challenging because the agent’s observations are not Markov. Recently proposed methods can learn variable-order Markov models of the underlying process but have steep memory requirements and are sensitive to aliasing between observation histories due to sensor noise. This paper proposes dynamic-depth context tree weighting (D2-CTW), a model-learning method that addresses these limitations. D2-CTW dynamically expands a suffix tree while ensuring that the size of the model, but not its depth, remains bounded. We show that D2-CTW approximately matches the performance of state-of-the-art alternatives at stochastic time-series prediction while using at least an order of magnitude less memory. We also apply D2-CTW to model-based RL, showing that, on tasks that require memory of past observations, D2-CTW can learn without prior knowledge of a good state representation, or even the length of history upon which such a representation should depend.

The option framework integrates temporal abstraction into the reinforcement learning model through the introduction of macro-actions (i.e., options). Recent works leveraged on the mapping of Markov decision processes (MDPs) with options to semi-MDPs (SMDPs) and introduced SMDP-versions of exploration-exploitation algorithms (e.g., RMAX-SMDP and UCRL-SMDP) to analyze the impact of options on the learning performance. Nonetheless, the PAC-SMDP sample complexity of RMAX-SMDP can hardly be translated into equivalent PAC-MDP theoretical guarantees, while UCRL-SMDP requires prior knowledge of the parameters characterizing the distributions of the cumulative reward and duration of each option, which are hardly available in practice. In this paper, we remove this limitation by combining the SMDP view together with the inner Markov structure of options into a novel algorithm whose regret performance matches UCRL-SMDP's up to an additive regret term. We show scenarios where this term is negligible and the advantage of temporal abstraction is preserved. We also report preliminary empirical result supporting the theoretical findings.

Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate inference algorithm on a specific data set. This paper introduces the auxiliary inference divergence estimator (AIDE), an algorithm for measuring the accuracy of approximate inference algorithms. AIDE is based on the observation that inference algorithms can be treated as probabilistic models and the random variables used within the inference algorithm can be viewed as auxiliary variables. This view leads to a new estimator for the symmetric KL divergence between the approximating distributions of two inference algorithms. The paper illustrates application of AIDE to algorithms for inference in regression, hidden Markov, and Dirichlet process mixture models. The experiments show that AIDE captures the qualitative behavior of a broad class of inference algorithms and can detect failure modes of inference algorithms that are missed by standard heuristics.

Learning cooperative policies for multi-agent systems is often challenged by partial observability and a lack of coordination. In some settings, the structure of a problem allows a distributed solution with limited communication. Here, we consider a scenario where no communication is available, and instead we learn local policies for all agents that collectively mimic the solution to a centralized multi-agent static optimization problem. Our main contribution is an information theoretic framework based on rate distortion theory which facilitates analysis of how well the resulting fully decentralized policies are able to reconstruct the optimal solution. Moreover, this framework provides a natural extension that addresses which nodes an agent should communicate with to improve the performance of its individual policy.

Count-based exploration algorithms are known to perform near-optimally when used in conjunction with tabular reinforcement learning (RL) methods for solving small discrete Markov decision processes (MDPs). It is generally thought that count-based methods cannot be applied in high-dimensional state spaces, since most states will only occur once. Recent deep RL exploration strategies are able to deal with high-dimensional continuous state spaces through complex heuristics, often relying on optimism in the face of uncertainty or intrinsic motivation. In this work, we describe a surprising finding: a simple generalization of the classic count-based approach can reach near state-of-the-art performance on various high-dimensional and/or continuous deep RL benchmarks. States are mapped to hash codes, which allows to count their occurrences with a hash table. These counts are then used to compute a reward bonus according to the classic count-based exploration theory. We find that simple hash functions can achieve surprisingly good results on many challenging tasks. Furthermore, we show that a domain-dependent learned hash code may further improve these results. Detailed analysis reveals important aspects of a good hash function: 1) having appropriate granularity and 2) encoding information relevant to solving the MDP. This exploration strategy achieves near state-of-the-art performance on both continuous control tasks and Atari 2600 games, hence providing a simple yet powerful baseline for solving MDPs that require considerable exploration.

We consider the problem of estimating multiple related functions computed by weighted automata (WFA). We first present a natural notion of relatedness between WFAs by considering to which extent several WFAs can share a common underlying representation.We then introduce the novel model of vector-valued WFA which conveniently helps us formalize this notion of relatedness. Finally, we propose a spectral learning algorithm for vector-valued WFAs to tackle the multitask learning problem. By jointly learning multiple tasks in the form of a vector-valued WFA, our algorithm enforces the discovery of a representation space shared between tasks. The benefits of the proposed multitask approach are theoretically motivated and showcased through experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets.

Markov random fields are a popular model for high-dimensional probability distributions. Over the years, many mathematical, statistical and algorithmic problems on them have been studied. Until recently, the only known algorithms for provably learning them relied on exhaustive search, correlation decay or various incoherence assumptions. Bresler gave an algorithm for learning general Ising models on bounded degree graphs. His approach was based on a structural result about mutual information in Ising models. Here we take a more conceptual approach to proving lower bounds on the mutual information. Our proof generalizes well beyond Ising models, to arbitrary Markov random fields with higher order interactions. As an application, we obtain algorithms for learning Markov random fields on bounded degree graphs on $n$ nodes with $r$-order interactions in $n^r$ time and $\log n$ sample complexity. Our algorithms also extend to various partial observation models.

We present an algorithm to identify sparse dependence structure in continuous and non-Gaussian probability distributions, given a corresponding set of data. The conditional independence structure of an arbitrary distribution can be represented as an undirected graph (or Markov random field), but most algorithms for learning this structure are restricted to the discrete or Gaussian cases. Our new approach allows for more realistic and accurate descriptions of the distribution in question, and in turn better estimates of its sparse Markov structure. Sparsity in the graph is of interest as it can accelerate inference, improve sampling methods, and reveal important dependencies between variables. The algorithm relies on exploiting the connection between the sparsity of the graph and the sparsity of transport maps, which deterministically couple one probability measure to another.

We present a data-efficient reinforcement learning method for continuous state-action systems under significant observation noise. Data-efficient solutions under small noise exist, such as PILCO which learns the cartpole swing-up task in 30s. PILCO evaluates policies by planning state-trajectories using a dynamics model. However, PILCO applies policies to the observed state, therefore planning in observation space. We extend PILCO with filtering to instead plan in belief space, consistent with partially observable Markov decisions process (POMDP) planning. This enables data-efficient learning under significant observation noise, outperforming more naive methods such as post-hoc application of a filter to policies optimised by the original (unfiltered) PILCO algorithm. We test our method on the cartpole swing-up task, which involves nonlinear dynamics and requires nonlinear control.

Technological breakthroughs allow us to collect data with increasing spatio-temporal resolution from complex interaction systems. The combination of high-resolution observations, expressive dynamic models, and efficient machine learning algorithms can lead to crucial insights into complex interaction dynamics and the functions of these systems. In this paper, we formulate the dynamics of a complex interacting network as a stochastic process driven by a sequence of events, and develop expectation propagation algorithms to make inferences from noisy observations. To avoid getting stuck at a local optimum, we formulate the problem of minimizing Bethe free energy as a constrained primal problem and take advantage of the concavity of dual problem in the feasible domain of dual variables guaranteed by duality theorem. Our expectation propagation algorithms demonstrate better performance in inferring the interaction dynamics in complex transportation networks than competing models such as particle filter, extended Kalman filter, and deep neural networks.