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 Markov Models


Deep learning with t-exponential Bayesian kitchen sinks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian learning has been recently considered as an effective means of accounting for uncertainty in trained deep network parameters. This is of crucial importance when dealing with small or sparse training datasets. On the other hand, shallow models that compute weighted sums of their inputs, after passing them through a bank of arbitrary randomized nonlinearities, have been recently shown to enjoy good test error bounds that depend on the number of nonlinearities. Inspired from these advances, in this paper we examine novel deep network architectures, where each layer comprises a bank of arbitrary nonlinearities, linearly combined using multiple alternative sets of weights. We effect model training by means of approximate inference based on a t-divergence measure; this generalizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence in the context of the t-exponential family of distributions. We adopt the t-exponential family since it can more flexibly accommodate real-world data, that entail outliers and distributions with fat tails, compared to conventional Gaussian model assumptions. We extensively evaluate our approach using several challenging benchmarks, and provide comparative results to related state-of-the-art techniques.


Learning robot objectives from physical human interaction

Robohub

Humans physically interact with each other every day โ€“ from grabbing someone's hand when they are about to spill their drink, to giving your friend a nudge to steer them in the right direction, physical interaction is an intuitive way to convey information about personal preferences and how to perform a task correctly. So why aren't we physically interacting with current robots the way we do with each other? Seamless physical interaction between a human and a robot requires a lot: lightweight robot designs, reliable torque or force sensors, safe and reactive control schemes, the ability to predict the intentions of human collaborators, and more! Luckily, robotics has made many advances in the design of personal robots specifically developed with humans in mind. However, consider the example from the beginning where you grab your friend's hand as they are about to spill their drink.


Personalizing a Dialogue System With Transfer Reinforcement Learning

AAAI Conferences

It is difficult to train a personalized task-oriented dialogue system because the data collected from each individual is often insufficient. Personalized dialogue systems trained on a small dataset is likely to overfit and make it difficult to adapt to different user needs. One way to solve this problem is to consider a collection of multiple users as a source domain and an individual user as a target domain, and to perform transfer learning from the source domain to the target domain. By following this idea, we propose a PErsonalized Task-oriented diALogue (PETAL) system, a transfer reinforcement learning framework based on POMDP, to construct a personalized dialogue system. The PETAL system first learns common dialogue knowledge from the source domain and then adapts this knowledge to the target domain. The proposed PETAL system can avoid the negative transfer problem by considering differences between the source and target users in a personalized Q-function. Experimental results on a real-world coffee-shopping data and simulation data show that the proposed PETAL system can learn optimal policies for different users, and thus effectively improve the dialogue quality under the personalized setting.


A Spherical Hidden Markov Model for Semantics-Rich Human Mobility Modeling

AAAI Conferences

We study the problem of modeling human mobility from semantic trace data, wherein each GPS record in a trace is associated with a text message that describes the user's activity. Existing methods fall short in unveiling human movement regularities for such data, because they either do not model the text data at all or suffer from text sparsity severely. We propose SHMM, a multi-modal spherical hidden Markov model for semantics-rich human mobility modeling. Under the hidden Markov assumption, SHMM models the generation process of a given trace by jointly considering the observed location, time, and text at each step of the trace. The distinguishing characteristic of SHMM is the text modeling part. We use fixed-size vector representations to encode the semantics of the text messages, and model the generation of the l2-normalized text embeddings on a unit sphere with the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution. Compared with other alternatives like multi-variate Gaussian, our choice of the vMF distribution not only incurs much fewer parameters, but also better leverages the discriminative power of text embeddings in a directional metric space. The parameter inference for the vMF distribution is non-trivial since it involves functional inversion of ratios of Bessel functions. We theoretically prove, for the first time, that: 1) the classical Expectation-Maximization algorithm is able to work with vMF distributions; and 2) while closed-form solutions are hard to be obtained for the M-step, Newton's method is guaranteed to converge to the optimal solution with quadratic convergence rate. We have performed extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-life data. The results on synthetic data verify our theoretical analysis; while the results on real-life data demonstrate that SHMM learns meaningful semantics-rich mobility models, outperforms state-of-the-art mobility models for next location prediction, and incurs lower training cost.


From Monte Carlo to Las Vegas: Improving Restricted Boltzmann Machine Training Through Stopping Sets

AAAI Conferences

We propose a Las Vegas transformation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs). We denote our approach Markov Chain Las Vegas (MCLV). MCLV gives statistical guarantees in exchange for random running times. MCLV uses a stopping set built from the training data and has maximum number of Markov chain steps K (referred as MCLV-K). We present a MCLV-K gradient estimator (LVS-K) for RBMs and explore the correspondence and differences between LVS-K and Contrastive Divergence (CD-K), with LVS-K significantly outperforming CD-K training RBMs over the MNIST dataset, indicating MCLV to be a promising direction in learning generative models.


MDP-Based Cost Sensitive Classification Using Decision Trees

AAAI Conferences

In classification, an algorithm learns to classify a given instance based on a set of observed attribute values. In many real world cases testing the value of an attribute incurs a cost. Furthermore, there can also be a cost associated with the misclassification of an instance. Cost sensitive classification attempts to minimize the expected cost of classification, by deciding after each observed attribute value, which attribute to measure next. In this paper we suggest Markov Decision Processes as a modeling tool for cost sensitive classification. We construct standard decision trees over all attribute subsets, and the leaves of these trees become the state space of our MDP. At each phase we decide on the next attribute to measure, balancing the cost of the measurement and the classification accuracy. We compare our approach to a set of previous approaches, showing our approach to work better for a range of misclassification costs.


Learning Predictive State Representations From Non-Uniform Sampling

AAAI Conferences

Predictive state representations (PSR) have emerged as a powerful method for modelling partially observable environments. PSR learning algorithms can build models for predicting all observable variables, or predicting only some of them conditioned on others (e.g., actions or exogenous variables). In the latter case, which we call conditional modelling, the accuracy of different estimates of the conditional probabilities for a fixed dataset can vary significantly, due to the limited sampling of certain conditions. This can have negative consequences on the PSR parameter estimation process, which are not taken into account by the current state-of-the-art PSR spectral learning algorithms. In this paper, we examine closely conditional modelling within the PSR framework. We first establish a new positive but surprisingly non-trivial result: a conditional model can never be larger than the complete model. Then, we address the core shortcoming of existing PSR spectral learning methods for conditional models by incorporating an additional step in the process, which can be seen as a type of matrix denoising. We further refine this objective by adding penalty terms for violations of the system dynamics matrix structure, which improves the PSR predictive performance. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets highlight the advantages of the proposed approach.


Norm Conflict Resolution in Stochastic Domains

AAAI Conferences

Artificial agents will need to be aware of human moral and social norms, and able to use them in decision-making. In particular, artificial agents will need a principled approach to managing conflicting norms, which are common in human social interactions. Existing logic-based approaches suffer from normative explosion and are typically designed for deterministic environments; reward-based approaches lack principled ways of determining which normative alternatives exist in a given environment. We propose a hybrid approach, using Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) representations in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), that manages norm conflicts in a systematic manner while accommodating domain stochasticity. We provide a proof-of-concept implementation in a simulated vacuum cleaning domain.


Efficiency and Safety in Autonomous Vehicles Through Planning With Uncertainty

AAAI Conferences

Autonomous vehicles are quickly becoming an important part of human society for transportation, monitoring, agriculture, and other applications. In these applications, there is a fundamental tradeoff between safety and efficiency that is especially salient when the autonomous vehicles interact directly with humans. A key to maintaining safety without sacrificing efficiency is dealing with uncertainty properly so that robots can be assertive when it is appropriate and careful in dangerous situations. The research that will be presented in my thesis uses the partially observable Markov decision process framework to approach this challenge, exploring several applications and proposing a new solution approach that is able to handle continuous action and observation spaces, a qualitative improvement over current methods.


Learning Mixtures of MLNs

AAAI Conferences

Weight learning is a challenging problem in Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) due to the large size of the ground propositional probabilistic graphical model that underlies the first-order representation of MLNs. Though more sophisticated weight learning methods that use lifted inference have been proposed, such methods can typically scale up only in the absence of evidence, namely in generative weight learning. In discriminative learning, where the evidence typically destroys symmetries, existing approaches are lacking in scalability. In this paper, we propose a novel, intuitive approach for learning MLNs discriminatively by utilizing approximate symmetries. Specifically, we reduce the size of the training database by clustering approximately symmetric atoms together and selecting a representative atom from each cluster. However, each choice made from the clusters induces a different distribution, increasing the uncertainty in our learned model. To reduce this uncertainty, we learn a finite mixture model by stacking the different distributions, where the parameters of the model are learned using an EM approach. Our results on several benchmarks show that our approach is much more scalable and accurate as compared to existing state-of-the-art MLN learning methods.