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 Markov Models


Root-cause Analysis for Time-series Anomalies via Spatiotemporal Graphical Modeling in Distributed Complex Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Performance monitoring, anomaly detection, and root-cause analysis in complex cyber-physical systems (CPSs) are often highly intractable due to widely diverse operational modes, disparate data types, and complex fault propagation mechanisms. This paper presents a new data-driven framework for root-cause analysis, based on a spatiotemporal graphical modeling approach built on the concept of symbolic dynamics for discovering and representing causal interactions among sub-systems of complex CPSs. We formulate the root-cause analysis problem as a minimization problem via the proposed inference based metric and present two approximate approaches for root-cause analysis, namely the sequential state switching ($S^3$, based on free energy concept of a restricted Boltzmann machine, RBM) and artificial anomaly association ($A^3$, a classification framework using deep neural networks, DNN). Synthetic data from cases with failed pattern(s) and anomalous node(s) are simulated to validate the proposed approaches. Real dataset based on Tennessee Eastman process (TEP) is also used for comparison with other approaches. The results show that: (1) $S^3$ and $A^3$ approaches can obtain high accuracy in root-cause analysis under both pattern-based and node-based fault scenarios, in addition to successfully handling multiple nominal operating modes, (2) the proposed tool-chain is shown to be scalable while maintaining high accuracy, and (3) the proposed framework is robust and adaptive in different fault conditions and performs better in comparison with the state-of-the-art methods.


The Actor Search Tree Critic (ASTC) for Off-Policy POMDP Learning in Medical Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Off-policy reinforcement learning enables near-optimal policy from suboptimal experience, thereby provisions opportunity for artificial intelligence applications in healthcare. Previous works have mainly framed patient-clinician interactions as Markov decision processes, while true physiological states are not necessarily fully observable from clinical data. We capture this situation with partially observable Markov decision process, in which an agent optimises its actions in a belief represented as a distribution of patient states inferred from individual history trajectories. A Gaussian mixture model is fitted for the observed data. Moreover, we take into account the fact that nuance in pharmaceutical dosage could presumably result in significantly different effect by modelling a continuous policy through a Gaussian approximator directly in the policy space, i.e. the actor. To address the challenge of infinite number of possible belief states which renders exact value iteration intractable, we evaluate and plan for only every encountered belief, through heuristic search tree by tightly maintaining lower and upper bounds of the true value of belief. We further resort to function approximations to update value bounds estimation, i.e. the critic, so that the tree search can be improved through more compact bounds at the fringe nodes that will be back-propagated to the root. Both actor and critic parameters are learned via gradient-based approaches. Our proposed policy trained from real intensive care unit data is capable of dictating dosing on vasopressors and intravenous fluids for sepsis patients that lead to the best patient outcomes.


Virtuously Safe Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We show that when a third party, the adversary, steps into the two-party setting (agent and operator) of safely interruptible reinforcement learning, a trade-off has to be made between the probability of following the optimal policy in the limit, and the probability of escaping a dangerous situation created by the adversary. So far, the work on safely interruptible agents has assumed a perfect perception of the agent about its environment (no adversary), and therefore implicitly set the second probability to zero, by explicitly seeking a value of one for the first probability. We show that (1) agents can be made both interruptible and adversary-resilient, and (2) the interruptibility can be made safe in the sense that the agent itself will not seek to avoid it. We also solve the problem that arises when the agent does not go completely greedy, i.e. issues with safe exploration in the limit. Resilience to perturbed perception, safe exploration in the limit, and safe interruptibility are the three pillars of what we call \emph{virtuously safe reinforcement learning}.


Propositional Knowledge Representation and Reasoning in Restricted Boltzmann Machines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While knowledge representation and reasoning are considered the keys for human-level artificial intelligence, connectionist networks have been shown successful in a broad range of applications due to their capacity for robust learning and flexible inference under uncertainty. The idea of representing symbolic knowledge in connectionist networks has been well-received and attracted much attention from research community as this can establish a foundation for integration of scalable learning and sound reasoning. In previous work, there exist a number of approaches that map logical inference rules with feed-forward propagation of artificial neural networks (ANN). However, the discriminative structure of an ANN requires the separation of input/output variables which makes it difficult for general reasoning where any variables should be inferable. Other approaches address this issue by employing generative models such as symmetric connectionist networks, however, they are difficult and convoluted. In this paper we propose a novel method to represent propositional formulas in restricted Boltzmann machines which is less complex, especially in the cases of logical implications and Horn clauses. An integration system is then developed and evaluated in real datasets which shows promising results.


Fast Abstractive Summarization with Reinforce-Selected Sentence Rewriting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inspired by how humans summarize long documents, we propose an accurate and fast summarization model that first selects salient sentences and then rewrites them abstractively (i.e., compresses and paraphrases) to generate a concise overall summary. We use a novel sentence-level policy gradient method to bridge the non-differentiable computation between these two neural networks in a hierarchical way, while maintaining language fluency. Empirically, we achieve the new state-of-the-art on all metrics (including human evaluation) on the CNN/Daily Mail dataset, as well as significantly higher abstractiveness scores. Moreover, by first operating at the sentence-level and then the word-level, we enable parallel decoding of our neural generative model that results in substantially faster (10-20x) inference speed as well as 4x faster training convergence than previous long-paragraph encoder-decoder models. We also demonstrate the generalization of our model on the test-only DUC-2002 dataset, where we achieve higher scores than a state-of-the-art model.


Training Medical Image Analysis Systems like Radiologists

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The training of medical image analysis systems using machine learning approaches follows a common script: collect and annotate a large dataset, train the classifier on the training set, and test it on a holdout test set. This process bears no direct resemblance with radiologist training, which is based on solving a series of tasks of increasing difficulty, where each task involves the use of significantly smaller datasets than those used in machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel training approach inspired by how radiologists are trained. In particular, we explore the use of meta-training that models a classifier based on a series of tasks. Tasks are selected using teacher-student curriculum learning, where each task consists of simple classification problems containing small training sets. We hypothesize that our proposed meta-training approach can be used to pre-train medical image analysis models. This hypothesis is tested on the automatic breast screening classification from DCE-MRI trained with weakly labeled datasets. The classification performance achieved by our approach is shown to be the best in the field for that application, compared to state of art baseline approaches: DenseNet, multiple - instance learning and multi-task learning.


GAN Q-learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Distributional reinforcement learning (distributional RL) has seen empirical success in complex Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) in the setting of nonlinear function approximation. However there are many different ways in which one can leverage the distributional approach to reinforcement learning. In this paper, we propose GAN Q-learning, a novel distributional RL method based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) and analyze its performance in simple tabular environments, as well as OpenAI Gym. We empirically show that our algorithm leverages the flexibility and blackbox approach of deep learning models while providing a viable alternative to traditional methods.


Contextual Graph Markov Model: A Deep and Generative Approach to Graph Processing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce the Contextual Graph Markov Model, an approach combining ideas from generative models and neural networks for the processing of graph data. It founds on a constructive methodology to build a deep architecture comprising layers of probabilistic models that learn to encode the structured information in an incremental fashion. Context is diffused in an efficient and scalable way across the graph vertexes and edges. The resulting graph encoding is used in combination with discriminative models to address structure classification benchmarks.


Classification-Based Machine Learning for Finance

@machinelearnbot

Finally, a comprehensive hands-on machine learning course with specific focus on classification based models for the investment community and passionate investors. In the past few years, there has been a massive adoption and growth in the use of data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning to find alpha. However, information on and application of machine learning to investment are scarce. This course has been designed to address that. It is meant to spark your creative juices and get you started in this space.


Non-Technical Person's Guide To Entering The Machine Learning Industry

#artificialintelligence

As the buzz around data science grows every day, there is a slew of self-taught professionals who have kick-started the machine learning journey with Andrew Ng's online courses. Many enthusiasts are gravitating towards the computer science field. But if one wants to pursue a career in Machine Learning, they need to be familiar with statistics and linear algebra. With computer science and ML applications becoming more pervasive in everyday life, people from a non-technical background are also interested in joining the field. In this article, we have discussed in-depth roles a person from non-tech background can explore in the data science/AI field.