Algorithmic assurances from advanced autonomous systems assist human users in understanding, trusting, and using such systems appropriately. Designing these systems with the capacity of assessing their own capabilities is one approach to creating an algorithmic assurance. The idea of `machine self-confidence' is introduced for autonomous systems. Using a factorization based framework for self-confidence assessment, one component of self-confidence, called `solver-quality', is discussed in the context of Markov decision processes for autonomous systems. Markov decision processes underlie much of the theory of reinforcement learning, and are commonly used for planning and decision making under uncertainty in robotics and autonomous systems. A `solver quality' metric is formally defined in the context of decision making algorithms based on Markov decision processes. A method for assessing solver quality is then derived, drawing inspiration from empirical hardness models. Finally, numerical experiments for an unmanned autonomous vehicle navigation problem under different solver, parameter, and environment conditions indicate that the self-confidence metric exhibits the desired properties. Discussion of results, and avenues for future investigation are included.

This paper develops a low-nonnegative-rank approximation method to identify the state aggregation structure of a finite-state Markov chain under an assumption that the state space can be mapped into a handful of meta-states. The number of meta-states is characterized by the nonnegative rank of the Markov transition matrix. Motivated by the success of the nuclear norm relaxation in low rank minimization problems, we propose an atomic regularizer as a convex surrogate for the nonnegative rank and formulate a convex optimization problem. Because the atomic regularizer itself is not computationally tractable, we instead solve a sequence of problems involving a nonnegative factorization of the Markov transition matrices by using the proximal alternating linearized minimization method. Two methods for adjusting the rank of factorization are developed so that local minima are escaped. One is to append an additional column to the factorized matrices, which can be interpreted as an approximation of a negative subgradient step. The other is to reduce redundant dimensions by means of linear combinations. Overall, the proposed algorithm very likely converges to the global solution. The efficiency and statistical properties of our approach are illustrated on synthetic data. We also apply our state aggregation algorithm on a Manhattan transportation data set and make extensive comparisons with an existing method.

In this paper, a novel circular and structural operator tracker (CSOT) is proposed for high performance visual tracking, it not only possesses the powerful discriminative capability of SOSVM but also efficiently inherits the superior computational efficiency of DCF. Based on the proposed circular and structural operators, a set of primal confidence score maps can be obtained by circular correlating feature maps with their corresponding structural correlation filters. Furthermore, an implicit interpolation is applied to convert the multi-resolution feature maps to the continuous domain and make all primal confidence score maps have the same spatial resolution. Then, we exploit an efficient ensemble post-processor based on relative entropy, which can coalesce primal confidence score maps and create an optimal confidence score map for more accurate localization. The target is localized on the peak of the optimal confidence score map. Besides, we introduce a collaborative optimization strategy to update circular and structural operators by iteratively training structural correlation filters, which significantly reduces computational complexity and improves robustness. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in mean AUC scores of 71.5% and 69.4% on the OTB-2013 and OTB-2015 benchmarks respectively, and obtains a third-best expected average overlap (EAO) score of 29.8% on the VOT-2017 benchmark.

The Universal Turing Machine (TM) is a model for VonNeumann computers --- general-purpose computers. A human brain can inside-skull-automatically learn a universal TM so that he acts as a general-purpose computer and writes a computer program for any practical purposes. It is unknown whether a machine can accomplish the same. This theoretical work shows how the Developmental Network (DN) can accomplish this. Unlike a traditional TM, the TM learned by DN is a super TM --- Grounded, Emergent, Natural, Incremental, Skulled, Attentive, Motivated, and Abstractive (GENISAMA). A DN is free of any central controller (e.g., Master Map, convolution, or error back-propagation). Its learning from a teacher TM is one transition observation at a time, immediate, and error-free until all its neurons have been initialized by early observed teacher transitions. From that point on, the DN is no longer error-free but is always optimal at every time instance in the sense of maximal likelihood, conditioned on its limited computational resources and the learning experience. This letter also extends the Church-Turing thesis to automatic programming for general purposes and sketchily proved it.

Computer simulation provides an automatic and safe way for training robotic control policies to achieve complex tasks such as locomotion. However, a policy trained in simulation usually does not transfer directly to the real hardware due to the differences between the two environments. Transfer learning using domain randomization is a promising approach, but it usually assumes that the target environment is close to the distribution of the training environments, thus relying heavily on accurate system identification. In this paper, we present a different approach that leverages domain randomization for transferring control policies to unknown environments. The key idea that, instead of learning a single policy in the simulation, we simultaneously learn a family of policies that exhibit different behaviors. When tested in the target environment, we directly search for the best policy in the family based on the task performance, without the need to identify the dynamic parameters. We evaluate our method on five simulated robotic control problems with different discrepancies in the training and testing environment and demonstrate that our method can overcome larger modeling errors compared to training a robust policy or an adaptive policy. Recent developments in Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) have shown the potential to learn complex robotic controllers in an automatic way with minimal human intervention. However, due to the high sample complexity of DRL algorithms, directly training control policies on the hardware still remains largely impractical for agile tasks such as locomotion. A promising direction to address this issue is to use the idea of transfer learning which learns a model in a source environment and transfers it to a target environment of interest. In the context of learning robotic control policies, we can consider the real world the target environment and the computer simulation the source environment.

E-learning systems are capable of providing more adaptive and efficient learning experiences for students than the traditional classroom setting. A key component of such systems is the learning strategy, the algorithm that designs the learning paths for students based on information such as the students' current progresses, their skills, learning materials, and etc. In this paper, we address the problem of finding the optimal learning strategy for an E-learning system. To this end, we first develop a model for students' hierarchical skills in the E-learning system. Based on the hierarchical skill model and the classical cognitive diagnosis model, we further develop a framework to model various proficiency levels of hierarchical skills. The optimal learning strategy on top of the hierarchical structure is found by applying a model-free reinforcement learning method, which does not require information on students' learning transition process. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated via numerical experiments.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has achieved outstanding results in recent years. This has led to a dramatic increase in the number of applications and methods. Recent works have explored learning beyond single-agent scenarios and have considered multiagent scenarios. Initial results report successes in complex multiagent domains, although there are several challenges to be addressed. In this context, first, this article provides a clear overview of current multiagent deep reinforcement learning (MDRL) literature. Second, it provides guidelines to complement this emerging area by (i) showcasing examples on how methods and algorithms from DRL and multiagent learning (MAL) have helped solve problems in MDRL and (ii) providing general lessons learned from these works. We expect this article will help unify and motivate future research to take advantage of the abundant literature that exists in both areas (DRL and MAL) in a joint effort to promote fruitful research in the multiagent community.

The Viterbi process is the limiting maximum a-posteriori estimate of the unobserved path in a hidden Markov model as the length of the time horizon grows. The existence of such a process suggests that approximate estimation using optimization algorithms which process data segments in parallel may be accurate. For models on state-space $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ satisfying a new "decay-convexity" condition, we approach the existence of the Viterbi process through fixed points of ordinary differential equations in a certain infinite dimensional Hilbert space. Quantitative bounds on the distance to the Viterbi process show that approximate estimation via parallelization can indeed be accurate and scaleable to high-dimensional problems because the rate of convergence to the Viterbi process does not necessarily depend on $d$.

Information theory has been very successful in obtaining performance limits for various problems such as communication, compression and hypothesis testing. Likewise, stochastic control theory provides a characterization of optimal policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) using dynamic programming. However, finding optimal policies for these problems is computationally hard in general and thus, heuristic solutions are employed in practice. Deep learning can be used as a tool for designing better heuristics in such problems. In this paper, the problem of active sequential hypothesis testing is considered. The goal is to design a policy that can reliably infer the true hypothesis using as few samples as possible by adaptively selecting appropriate queries. This problem can be modeled as a POMDP and bounds on its value function exist in literature. However, optimal policies have not been identified and various heuristics are used. In this paper, two new heuristics are proposed: one based on deep reinforcement learning and another based on a KL-divergence zero-sum game. These heuristics are compared with state-of-the-art solutions and it is demonstrated using numerical experiments that the proposed heuristics can achieve significantly better performance than existing methods in some scenarios.

State representation learning aims at learning compact representations from raw observations in robotics and control applications. Approaches used for this objective are auto-encoders, learning forward models, inverse dynamics or learning using generic priors on the state characteristics. However, the diversity in applications and methods makes the field lack standard evaluation datasets, metrics and tasks. This paper provides a set of environments, data generators, robotic control tasks, metrics and tools to facilitate iterative state representation learning and evaluation in reinforcement learning settings.