Markov Models
Fake News: A Survey of Research, Detection Methods, and Opportunities
The explosive growth in fake news and its erosion to democracy, justice, and public trust has increased the demand for fake news analysis, detection and intervention. This survey comprehensively and systematically reviews fake news research. The survey identifies and specifies fundamental theories across various disciplines, e.g., psychology and social science, to facilitate and enhance the interdisciplinary research of fake news. Current fake news research is reviewed, summarized and evaluated. These studies focus on fake news from four perspective: (1) the false knowledge it carries, (2) its writing style, (3) its propagation patterns, and (4) the credibility of its creators and spreaders. We characterize each perspective with various analyzable and utilizable information provided by news and its spreaders, various strategies and frameworks that are adaptable, and techniques that are applicable. By reviewing the characteristics of fake news and open issues in fake news studies, we highlight some potential research tasks at the end of this survey.
Plan-Recognition-Driven Attention Modeling for Visual Recognition
Zha, Yantian, Li, Yikang, Yu, Tianshu, Kambhampati, Subbarao, Li, Baoxin
Human visual recognition of activities or external agents involves an interplay between high-level plan recognition and low-level perception. Given that, a natural question to ask is: can low-level perception be improved by high-level plan recognition? We formulate the problem of leveraging recognized plans to generate better top-down attention maps \cite{gazzaniga2009,baluch2011} to improve the perception performance. We call these top-down attention maps specifically as plan-recognition-driven attention maps. To address this problem, we introduce the Pixel Dynamics Network. Pixel Dynamics Network serves as an observation model, which predicts next states of object points at each pixel location given observation of pixels and pixel-level action feature. This is like internally learning a pixel-level dynamics model. Pixel Dynamics Network is a kind of Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet), with specially-designed architecture. Therefore, Pixel Dynamics Network could take the advantage of parallel computation of ConvNets, while learning the pixel-level dynamics model. We further prove the equivalence between Pixel Dynamics Network as an observation model, and the belief update in partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) framework. We evaluate our Pixel Dynamics Network in event recognition tasks. We build an event recognition system, ER-PRN, which takes Pixel Dynamics Network as a subroutine, to recognize events based on observations augmented by plan-recognition-driven attention.
Learning Curriculum Policies for Reinforcement Learning
Narvekar, Sanmit, Stone, Peter
Curriculum learning in reinforcement learning is a training methodology that seeks to speed up learning of a difficult target task, by first training on a series of simpler tasks and transferring the knowledge acquired to the target task. Automatically choosing a sequence of such tasks (i.e. a curriculum) is an open problem that has been the subject of much recent work in this area. In this paper, we build upon a recent method for curriculum design, which formulates the curriculum sequencing problem as a Markov Decision Process. We extend this model to handle multiple transfer learning algorithms, and show for the first time that a curriculum policy over this MDP can be learned from experience. We explore various representations that make this possible, and evaluate our approach by learning curriculum policies for multiple agents in two different domains. The results show that our method produces curricula that can train agents to perform on a target task as fast or faster than existing methods.
Discovering hierarchies using Imitation Learning from hierarchy aware policies
Deshpande, Ameet, K, Harshavardhan P, Ravindran, Balaraman
Learning options that allow agents to exhibit temporally higher order behavior has proven to be useful in increasing exploration, reducing sample complexity and for various transfer scenarios. Deep Discovery of Options (DDO) is a generative algorithm that learns a hierarchical policy along with options directly from expert trajectories. We perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of options inferred from DDO in different domains. To this end, we suggest different value metrics like option termination condition, hinge value function error and KL-Divergence based distance metric to compare different methods. Analyzing the termination condition of the options and number of time steps the options were run revealed that the options were terminating prematurely. We suggest modifications which can be incorporated easily and alleviates the problem of shorter options and a collapse of options to the same mode.
Online abstraction with MDP homomorphisms for Deep Learning
Abstraction of Markov Decision Processes is a useful tool for solving complex problems, as it can ignore unimportant aspects of an environment, simplifying the process of learning an optimal policy. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for finding abstract MDPs in environments with continuous state spaces. It is based on MDP homomorphisms, a structure-preserving mapping between MDPs. We demonstrate our algorithm's ability to learns abstractions from collected experience and show how to reuse the abstractions to guide exploration in new tasks the agent encounters. Our novel task transfer method beats a baseline based on a deep Q-network.
Flexible and Scalable State Tracking Framework for Goal-Oriented Dialogue Systems
Goel, Rahul, Paul, Shachi, Chung, Tagyoung, Lecomte, Jeremie, Mandal, Arindam, Hakkani-Tur, Dilek
Goal-oriented dialogue systems typically rely on components specifically developed for a single task or domain. This limits such systems in two different ways: If there is an update in the task domain, the dialogue system usually needs to be updated or completely re-trained. It is also harder to extend such dialogue systems to different and multiple domains. The dialogue state tracker in conventional dialogue systems is one such component - it is usually designed to fit a well-defined application domain. For example, it is common for a state variable to be a categorical distribution over a manually-predefined set of entities (Henderson et al., 2013), resulting in an inflexible and hard-to-extend dialogue system. In this paper, we propose a new approach for dialogue state tracking that can generalize well over multiple domains without incorporating any domain-specific knowledge. Under this framework, discrete dialogue state variables are learned independently and the information of a predefined set of possible values for dialogue state variables is not required. Furthermore, it enables adding arbitrary dialogue context as features and allows for multiple values to be associated with a single state variable. These characteristics make it much easier to expand the dialogue state space. We evaluate our framework using the widely used dialogue state tracking challenge data set (DSTC2) and show that our framework yields competitive results with other state-of-the-art results despite incorporating little domain knowledge. We also show that this framework can benefit from widely available external resources such as pre-trained word embeddings.
Simulated Tempering Langevin Monte Carlo II: An Improved Proof using Soft Markov Chain Decomposition
Ge, Rong, Lee, Holden, Risteski, Andrej
A key task in Bayesian machine learning is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). One prevalent example of this is sampling posteriors in parametric distributions, such as latent-variable generative models. However sampling (even very approximately) can be #P-hard. Classical results going back to Bakry and \'Emery (1985) on sampling focus on log-concave distributions, and show a natural Markov chain called Langevin diffusion mixes in polynomial time. However, all log-concave distributions are uni-modal, while in practice it is very common for the distribution of interest to have multiple modes. In this case, Langevin diffusion suffers from torpid mixing. We address this problem by combining Langevin diffusion with simulated tempering. The result is a Markov chain that mixes more rapidly by transitioning between different temperatures of the distribution. We analyze this Markov chain for a mixture of (strongly) log-concave distributions of the same shape. In particular, our technique applies to the canonical multi-modal distribution: a mixture of gaussians (of equal variance). Our algorithm efficiently samples from these distributions given only access to the gradient of the log-pdf. For the analysis, we introduce novel techniques for proving spectral gaps based on decomposing the action of the generator of the diffusion. Previous approaches rely on decomposing the state space as a partition of sets, while our approach can be thought of as decomposing the stationary measure as a mixture of distributions (a "soft partition"). Additional materials for the paper can be found at http://tiny.cc/glr17. The proof and results have been improved and generalized from the precursor at www.arxiv.org/abs/1710.02736.
Early Stratification of Patients at Risk for Postoperative Complications after Elective Colectomy
Wang, Wen, Padman, Rema, Shah, Nirav
Stratifying patients at risk for postoperative complications may facilitate timely and accurate workups and reduce the burden of adverse events on patients and the health system. Currently, a widely-used surgical risk calculator created by the American College of Surgeons, NSQIP, uses 21 preoperative covariates to assess risk of postoperative complications, but lacks dynamic, real-time capabilities to accommodate postoperative information. We propose a new Hidden Markov Model sequence classifier for analyzing patients' postoperative temperature sequences that incorporates their time-invariant characteristics in both transition probability and initial state probability in order to develop a postoperative "real-time" complication detector. Data from elective Colectomy surgery indicate that our method has improved classification performance compared to 8 other machine learning classifiers when using the full temperature sequence associated with the patients' length of stay. Additionally, within 44 hours after surgery, the performance of the model is close to that of full-length temperature sequence.
Smoothed Analysis in Unsupervised Learning via Decoupling
Bhaskara, Aditya, Chen, Aidao, Perreault, Aidan, Vijayaraghavan, Aravindan
Smoothed analysis is a powerful paradigm in overcoming worst-case intractability in unsupervised learning and high-dimensional data analysis. While polynomial time smoothed analysis guarantees have been obtained for worst-case intractable problems like tensor decompositions and learning mixtures of Gaussians, such guarantees have been hard to obtain for several other important problems in unsupervised learning. A core technical challenge is obtaining lower bounds on the least singular value for random matrix ensembles with dependent entries, that are given by low-degree polynomials of a few base underlying random variables. In this work, we address this challenge by obtaining high-confidence lower bounds on the least singular value of new classes of structured random matrix ensembles of the above kind. We then use these bounds to obtain polynomial time smoothed analysis guarantees for the following three important problems in unsupervised learning: 1. Robust subspace recovery, when the fraction $\alpha$ of inliers in the d-dimensional subspace $T \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ is at least $\alpha > (d/n)^\ell$ for any constant integer $\ell>0$. This contrasts with the known worst-case intractability when $\alpha< d/n$, and the previous smoothed analysis result which needed $\alpha > d/n$ (Hardt and Moitra, 2013). 2. Higher order tensor decompositions, where we generalize the so-called FOOBI algorithm of Cardoso to find order-$\ell$ rank-one tensors in a subspace. This allows us to obtain polynomially robust decomposition algorithms for $2\ell$'th order tensors with rank $O(n^{\ell})$. 3. Learning overcomplete hidden markov models, where the size of the state space is any polynomial in the dimension of the observations. This gives the first polynomial time guarantees for learning overcomplete HMMs in a smoothed analysis model.
Restricted Boltzmann Machine with Multivalued Hidden Variables: a model suppressing over-fitting
Yokoyama, Yuuki, Katsumata, Tomu, Yasuda, Muneki
Generalization is one of the most important issues in machine learning problems. In this paper, we consider the generalization in restricted Boltzmann machines. We propose a restricted Boltzmann machine with multivalued hidden variables, which is a simple extension of conventional restricted Boltzmann machines. We demonstrate that our model is better than the conventional one via numerical experiments: experiments for a contrastive divergence learning with artificial data and for a classification problem with MNIST.