Diagnosing an inherited disease often requires identifying the pattern of inheritance in a patient's family. We represent family trees with genetic patterns of inheritance using hypergraphs and latent state space models to provide explainable inheritance pattern predictions. Our approach allows for exact causal inference over a patient's possible genotypes given their relatives' phenotypes. By design, inference can be examined at a low level to provide explainable predictions. Furthermore, we make use of human intuition by providing a method to assign hypothetical evidence to any inherited gene alleles. Our analysis supports the application of latent state space models to improve patient care in cases of rare inherited diseases where access to genetic specialists is limited.

Text-based adventure games provide a platform on which to explore reinforcement learning in the context of a combinatorial action space, such as natural language. We present a deep reinforcement learning architecture that represents the game state as a knowledge graph which is learned during exploration. This graph is used to prune the action space, enabling more efficient exploration. The question of which action to take can be reduced to a question-answering task, a form of transfer learning that pre-trains certain parts of our architecture. In experiments using the TextWorld framework, we show that our proposed technique can learn a control policy faster than baseline alternatives.

Autonomous vehicles have to navigate the surrounding environment with partial observability of other objects sharing the road. Sources of uncertainty in autonomous vehicle measurements include sensor fusion errors, limited sensor range due to weather or object detection latency, occlusion, and hidden parameters such as other human driver intentions. Behavior planning must consider all sources of uncertainty in deciding future vehicle maneuvers. This paper presents a scalable framework for risk-averse behavior planning under uncertainty by incorporating QMDP, unscented transform, and Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS). It is shown that upper confidence bound (UCB) for expanding the tree results in noisy Q-value estimates by the MCTS and a degraded performance of QMDP. A modification to action selection procedure in MCTS is proposed to achieve robust performance.

Deep reinforcement learning is the combination of reinforcement learning (RL) and deep learning. This field of research has been able to solve a wide range of complex decision-making tasks that were previously out of reach for a machine. Thus, deep RL opens up many new applications in domains such as healthcare, robotics, smart grids, finance, and many more. This manuscript provides an introduction to deep reinforcement learning models, algorithms and techniques. Particular focus is on the aspects related to generalization and how deep RL can be used for practical applications. We assume the reader is familiar with basic machine learning concepts.

As more data have become available, the size and complexity of neural network (NN)s has risen sharply with modern NNs containing millions or even billions of trainable parameters [1], [2]. These massive NNs come with the cost of large computational and storage demands. The current state of the art is to train large NNs on Graphical Processing Unit (GPU)s in the cloud - a process that can take days to weeks even on powerful GPUs [1]-[3] or similar programmable processorswith multiply-accumulate accelerators [4]. Once trained, the model can be used for inference which is less computationally intensive and is typically performed on more general purpose processors (i.e., Central Processing Unit (CPU)s). It is increasingly desirable to run inference, and even some retraining, on embedded processors which have limited resources for computation and storage. In this regard, model reduction has been identified as a key to NN acceleration by several prominent researchers [5]. This is generally performed post-training to reduce the memory requirements to store the model for inference - e.g., methods for quantization, compression, and grouping parameters [6]-[9]. Decreasing the time, computation, storage, and energy costs for training and inference is therefore a highly relevant goal.

Hypothesis testing is an important problem with applications in target localization, clinical trials etc. Many active hypothesis testing strategies operate in two phases: an exploration phase and a verification phase. In the exploration phase, selection of experiments is such that a moderate level of confidence on the true hypothesis is achieved. Subsequent experiment design aims at improving the confidence level on this hypothesis to the desired level. In this paper, the focus is on the verification phase. A confidence measure is defined and active hypothesis testing is formulated as a confidence maximization problem in an infinite-horizon average-reward Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) setting. The problem of maximizing confidence conditioned on a particular hypothesis is referred to as the hypothesis verification problem. The relationship between hypothesis testing and verification problems is established. The verification problem can be formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Optimal solutions for the verification MDP are characterized and a simple heuristic adaptive strategy for verification is proposed based on a zero-sum game interpretation of Kullback-Leibler divergences. It is demonstrated through numerical experiments that the heuristic performs better in some scenarios compared to existing methods in literature.

Markov networks are widely used in many Machine Learning applications including natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics . Learning Markov networks have many complications ranging from intractable computations involved to the possibility of learning a model with a huge number of parameters. In this report, we provide a computationally tractable greedy heuristic for learning Markov networks structure. The proposed heuristic results in a model with a limited predefined number of parameters. We ran our method on 3 fully-observed real datasets, and we observed that our method is doing comparably good to the state of the art methods.

An agent with an inaccurate model of its environment faces a difficult choice: it can ignore the errors in its model and act in the real world in whatever way it determines is optimal with respect to its model. Alternatively, it can take a more conservative stance and eschew its model in favor of optimizing its behavior solely via real-world interaction. This latter approach can be exceedingly slow to learn from experience, while the former can lead to "planner overfitting" - aspects of the agent's behavior are optimized to exploit errors in its model. This paper explores an intermediate position in which the planner seeks to avoid overfitting through a kind of regularization of the plans it considers. We present three different approaches that demonstrably mitigate planner overfitting in reinforcement-learning environments.

Modeling disease progression in healthcare administrative databases is complicated by the fact that patients are observed only at irregular intervals when they seek healthcare services. In a longitudinal cohort of 76,888 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), we used a continuous-time hidden Markov model with a generalized linear model to model healthcare utilization events. We found that the fitted model provides interpretable results suitable for summarization and hypothesis generation.

StarCraft (SC) is one of the most popular and successful Real Time Strategy (RTS) games. In recent years, SC is also considered as a testbed for AI research, due to its enormous state space, hidden information, multi-agent collaboration and so on. Thanks to the annual AIIDE and CIG competitions, a growing number of bots are proposed and being continuously improved. However, a big gap still remains between the top bot and the professional human players. One vital reason is that current bots mainly rely on predefined rules to perform macro actions. These rules are not scalable and efficient enough to cope with the large but partially observed macro state space in SC. In this paper, we propose a DRL based framework to do macro action selection. Our framework combines the reinforcement learning approach Ape-X DQN with Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to improve the macro action selection in bot. We evaluate our bot, named as LastOrder, on the AIIDE 2017 StarCraft AI competition bots set. Our bot achieves overall 83% win-rate, outperforming 26 bots in total 28 entrants.