In this paper, we use a well-known Deep Learning technique called Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks to find sessions that are prone to code failure in applications that rely on telemetry data for system health monitoring. We also use LSTM networks to extract telemetry patterns that lead to a specific code failure. For code failure prediction, we treat the telemetry events, sequence of telemetry events and the outcome of each sequence as words, sentence and sentiment in the context of sentiment analysis, respectively. Our proposed method is able to process a large set of data and can automatically handle edge cases in code failure prediction. We take advantage of Bayesian optimization technique to find the optimal hyper parameters as well as the type of LSTM cells that leads to the best prediction performance. We then introduce the Contributors and Blockers concepts. In this paper, contributors are the set of events that cause a code failure, while blockers are the set of events that each of them individually prevents a code failure from happening, even in presence of one or multiple contributor(s). Once the proposed LSTM model is trained, we use a greedy approach to find the contributors and blockers. To develop and test our proposed method, we use synthetic (simulated) data in the first step. The synthetic data is generated using a number of rules for code failures, as well as a number of rules for preventing a code failure from happening. The trained LSTM model shows over 99% accuracy for detecting code failures in the synthetic data. The results from the proposed method outperform the classical learning models such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. Using the proposed greedy method, we are able to find the contributors and blockers in the synthetic data in more than 90% of the cases, with a performance better than sequential rule and pattern mining algorithms.

We introduce and analyse two algorithms for exploration-exploitation in discrete and continuous Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) based on exploration bonuses. SCAL$^+$ is a variant of SCAL (Fruit et al., 2018) that performs efficient exploration-exploitation in any unknown weakly-communicating MDP for which an upper bound C on the span of the optimal bias function is known. For an MDP with $S$ states, $A$ actions and $\Gamma \leq S$ possible next states, we prove that SCAL$^+$ achieves the same theoretical guarantees as SCAL (i.e., a high probability regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(C\sqrt{\Gamma SAT})$), with a much smaller computational complexity. Similarly, C-SCAL$^+$ exploits an exploration bonus to achieve sublinear regret in any undiscounted MDP with continuous state space. We show that C-SCAL$^+$ achieves the same regret bound as UCCRL (Ortner and Ryabko, 2012) while being the first implementable algorithm with regret guarantees in this setting. While optimistic algorithms such as UCRL, SCAL or UCCRL maintain a high-confidence set of plausible MDPs around the true unknown MDP, SCAL$^+$ and C-SCAL$^+$ leverage on an exploration bonus to directly plan on the empirically estimated MDP, thus being more computationally efficient.

We provide high-probability sample complexity guarantees for exact structure recovery and accurate Predictive Learning using noise-corrupted samples from an acyclic (tree-shaped) graphical model. The hidden variables follow a tree-structured Ising model distribution whereas the observable variables are generated by a binary symmetric channel, taking the hidden variables as its input. This model arises naturally in a variety of applications, such as in physics, biology, computer science, and finance. The noiseless structure learning problem has been studied earlier by Bresler and Karzand (2018); this paper quantifies how noise in the hidden model impacts the sample complexity of structure learning and predictive distributional inference by proving upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity. Quite remarkably, for any tree with $p$ vertices and probability of incorrect recovery $\delta>0$, the order of necessary number of samples remains logarithmic as in the noiseless case, i.e., $\mathcal{O}(\log(p/\delta))$, for both aforementioned tasks. We also present a new equivalent of Isserlis' Theorem for sign-valued tree-structured distributions, yielding a new low-complexity algorithm for higher order moment estimation.

This paper considers the problem of recognizing eating gestures by tracking wrist motion. Eating gestures can have large variability in motion depending on the subject, utensil, and type of food or beverage being consumed. Previous works have shown viable proofs-of-concept of recognizing eating gestures in laboratory settings with small numbers of subjects and food types, but it is unclear how well these methods would work if tested on a larger population in natural settings. As more subjects, locations and foods are tested, a larger amount of motion variability could cause a decrease in recognition accuracy. To explore this issue, this paper describes the collection and annotation of 51,614 eating gestures taken by 269 subjects eating a meal in a cafeteria. Experiments are described that explore the complexity of hidden Markov models (HMMs) and the amount of training data needed to adequately capture the motion variability across this large data set. Results found that HMMs needed a complexity of 13 states and 5 Gaussians to reach a plateau in accuracy, signifying that a minimum of 65 samples per gesture type are needed. Results also found that 500 training samples per gesture type were needed to identify the point of diminishing returns in recognition accuracy. Overall, the findings provide evidence that the size a data set typically used to demonstrate a laboratory proofs-of-concept may not be sufficiently large enough to capture all the motion variability that could be expected in transitioning to deployment with a larger population. Our data set, which is 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than all data sets tested in previous works, is being made publicly available.

This paper develops algorithms for high-dimensional stochastic control problems based on deep learning and dynamic programming (DP). Differently from the classical approximate DP approach, we first approximate the optimal policy by means of neural networks in the spirit of deep reinforcement learning, and then the value function by Monte Carlo regression. This is achieved in the DP recursion by performance or hybrid iteration, and regress now or later/quantization methods from numerical probabilities. We provide a theoretical justification of these algorithms. Consistency and rate of convergence for the control and value function estimates are analyzed and expressed in terms of the universal approximation error of the neural networks. Numerical results on various applications are presented in a companion paper [2] and illustrate the performance of our algorithms.

Non-intrusive load monitoring or energy disaggregation involves estimating the power consumption of individual appliances from measurements of the total power consumption of a home. Deep neural networks have been shown to be effective for energy disaggregation. In this work, we present a deep neural network architecture which achieves state of the art disaggregation performance with substantially improved computational efficiency, reducing model training time by a factor of 32 and prediction time by a factor of 43. This improvement in efficiency could be especially useful for applications where disaggregation must be performed in home on lower power devices, or for research experiments which involve training a large number of models.

Tasks such as social network analysis, human behavior recognition, or modeling biochemical reactions, can be solved elegantly by using the probabilistic inference framework. However, standard probabilistic inference algorithms work at a propositional level, and thus cannot capture the symmetries and redundancies that are present in these tasks. Algorithms that exploit those symmetries have been devised in different research fields, for example by the lifted inference-, multiple object tracking-, and modeling and simulation-communities. The common idea, that we call state space abstraction, is to perform inference over compact representations of sets of symmetric states. Although they are concerned with a similar topic, the relationship between these approaches has not been investigated systematically. This survey provides the following contributions. We perform a systematic literature review to outline the state of the art in probabilistic inference methods exploiting symmetries. From an initial set of more than 4,000 papers, we identify 116 relevant papers. Furthermore, we provide new high-level categories that classify the approaches, based on common properties of the approaches. The research areas underlying each of the categories are introduced concisely. Researchers from different fields that are confronted with a state space explosion problem in a probabilistic system can use this classification to identify possible solutions. Finally, based on this conceptualization, we identify potentials for future research, as some relevant application domains are not addressed by current approaches.

This paper proposes a method for modeling event sequences with ambiguous timestamps, a time-discounting convolution. Unlike in ordinary time series, time intervals are not constant, small time-shifts have no significant effect, and inputting timestamps or time durations into a model is not effective. The criteria that we require for the modeling are providing robustness against time-shifts or timestamps uncertainty as well as maintaining the essential capabilities of time-series models, i.e., forgetting meaningless past information and handling infinite sequences. The proposed method handles them with a convolutional mechanism across time with specific parameterizations, which efficiently represents the event dependencies in a time-shift invariant manner while discounting the effect of past events, and a dynamic pooling mechanism, which provides robustness against the uncertainty in timestamps and enhances the time-discounting capability by dynamically changing the pooling window size. In our learning algorithm, the decaying and dynamic pooling mechanisms play critical roles in handling infinite and variable length sequences. Numerical experiments on real-world event sequences with ambiguous timestamps and ordinary time series demonstrated the advantages of our method.

Online crowdsourcing provides a scalable and inexpensive means to collect knowledge (e.g. labels) about various types of data items (e.g. text, audio, video). However, it is also known to result in large variance in the quality of recorded responses which often cannot be directly used for training machine learning systems. To resolve this issue, a lot of work has been conducted to control the response quality such that low-quality responses cannot adversely affect the performance of the machine learning systems. Such work is referred to as the quality control for crowdsourcing. Past quality control research can be divided into two major branches: quality control mechanism design and statistical models. The first branch focuses on designing measures, thresholds, interfaces and workflows for payment, gamification, question assignment and other mechanisms that influence workers' behaviour. The second branch focuses on developing statistical models to perform effective aggregation of responses to infer correct responses. The two branches are connected as statistical models (i) provide parameter estimates to support the measure and threshold calculation, and (ii) encode modelling assumptions used to derive (theoretical) performance guarantees for the mechanisms. There are surveys regarding each branch but they lack technical details about the other branch. Our survey is the first to bridge the two branches by providing technical details on how they work together under frameworks that systematically unify crowdsourcing aspects modelled by both of them to determine the response quality. We are also the first to provide taxonomies of quality control papers based on the proposed frameworks. Finally, we specify the current limitations and the corresponding future directions for the quality control research.

One approach to deal with the statistical inefficiency of neural networks is to rely on auxiliary losses that help to build useful representations. However, it is not always trivial to know if an auxiliary task will be helpful for the main task and when it could start hurting. We propose to use the cosine similarity between gradients of tasks as an adaptive weight to detect when an auxiliary loss is helpful to the main loss. We show that our approach is guaranteed to converge to critical points of the main task and demonstrate the practical usefulness of the proposed algorithm in a few domains: multi-task supervised learning on subsets of ImageNet, reinforcement learning on gridworld, and reinforcement learning on Atari games.