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 Markov Models


Gen-Oja: Simple & Efficient Algorithm for Streaming Generalized Eigenvector Computation

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we study the problems of principle Generalized Eigenvector computation and Canonical Correlation Analysis in the stochastic setting. We propose a simple and efficient algorithm for these problems. We prove the global convergence of our algorithm, borrowing ideas from the theory of fast-mixing Markov chains and two-Time-Scale Stochastic Approximation, showing that it achieves the optimal rate of convergence. In the process, we develop tools for understanding stochastic processes with Markovian noise which might be of independent interest.


rho-POMDPs have Lipschitz-Continuous epsilon-Optimal Value Functions

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many state-of-the-art algorithms for solving Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) rely on turning the problem into a โ€œfully observableโ€ problemโ€”a belief MDPโ€”and exploiting the piece-wise linearity and convexity (PWLC) of the optimal value function in this new state space (the belief simplex โˆ†). This approach has been extended to solving ฯ-POMDPsโ€”i.e., for information-oriented criteriaโ€”when the reward ฯ is convex in โˆ†. General ฯ-POMDPs can also be turned into โ€œfully observableโ€ problems, but with no means to exploit the PWLC property. In this paper, we focus on POMDPs and ฯ-POMDPs with ฮป ฯ -Lipschitz reward function, and demonstrate that, for finite horizons, the optimal value function is Lipschitz-continuous. Then, value function approximators are proposed for both upper- and lower-bounding the optimal value function, which are shown to provide uniformly improvable bounds. This allows proposing two algorithms derived from HSVI which are empirically evaluated on various benchmark problems.


Policy Regret in Repeated Games

Neural Information Processing Systems

The notion of ``policy regret'' in online learning is supposed to capture the reactions of the adversary to the actions taken by the learner, which more traditional notions such as external regret do not take into account. We revisit this notion of policy regret, and first show that there are online learning settings in which policy regret and external regret are incompatible: any sequence of play which does well with respect to one must do poorly with respect to the other. We then focus on the game theoretic setting, when the adversary is a self-interested agent. In this setting we show that the external regret and policy regret are not in conflict, and in fact that a wide class of algorithms can ensure both as long as the adversary is also using such an algorithm. We also define a new notion of equilibrium which we call a ``policy equilibrium'', and show that no-policy regret algorithms will have play which converges to such an equilibrium. Relating this back to external regret, we show that coarse correlated equilibria (which no-external regret players will converge to) are a strict subset of policy equilibria. So in game-theoretic settings every sequence of play with no external regret also has no policy regret, but the converse is not true.


Large-Scale Stochastic Sampling from the Probability Simplex

Neural Information Processing Systems

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space the time-discretization error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that because of this, current SGMCMC methods for the simplex struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. Unfortunately, many popular large-scale Bayesian models, such as network or topic models, require inference on sparse simplex spaces. To avoid the biases caused by this discretization error, we propose the stochastic Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process (SCIR), which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the SCIR process are asymptotically unbiased. We discuss how this idea can be extended to target other constrained spaces. Use of the SCIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.


Modeling Dynamic Missingness of Implicit Feedback for Recommendation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Implicit feedback is widely used in collaborative filtering methods for recommendation. It is well known that implicit feedback contains a large number of values that are \emph{missing not at random} (MNAR); and the missing data is a mixture of negative and unknown feedback, making it difficult to learn user's negative preferences. Recent studies modeled \emph{exposure}, a latent missingness variable which indicates whether an item is missing to a user, to give each missing entry a confidence of being negative feedback. However, these studies use static models and ignore the information in temporal dependencies among items, which seems to be a essential underlying factor to subsequent missingness. To model and exploit the dynamics of missingness, we propose a latent variable named ``\emph{user intent}'' to govern the temporal changes of item missingness, and a hidden Markov model to represent such a process. The resulting framework captures the dynamic item missingness and incorporate it into matrix factorization (MF) for recommendation. We also explore two types of constraints to achieve a more compact and interpretable representation of \emph{user intents}. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art recommender systems.


Gamma-Poisson Dynamic Matrix Factorization Embedded with Metadata Influence

Neural Information Processing Systems

A conjugate Gamma-Poisson model for Dynamic Matrix Factorization incorporated with metadata influence (mGDMF for short) is proposed to effectively and efficiently model massive, sparse and dynamic data in recommendations. Modeling recommendation problems with a massive number of ratings and very sparse or even no ratings on some users/items in a dynamic setting is very demanding and poses critical challenges to well-studied matrix factorization models due to the large-scale, sparse and dynamic nature of the data. Our proposed mGDMF tackles these challenges by introducing three strategies: (1) constructing a stable Gamma-Markov chain model that smoothly drifts over time by combining both static and dynamic latent features of data; (2) incorporating the user/item metadata into the model to tackle sparse ratings; and (3) undertaking stochastic variational inference to efficiently handle massive data. mGDMF is conjugate, dynamic and scalable. Experiments show that mGDMF significantly (both effectively and efficiently) outperforms the state-of-the-art static and dynamic models on large, sparse and dynamic data.


Learning Others' Intentional Models in Multi-Agent Settings Using Interactive POMDPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Interactive partially observable Markov decision processes (I-POMDPs) provide a principled framework for planning and acting in a partially observable, stochastic and multi-agent environment. It extends POMDPs to multi-agent settings by including models of other agents in the state space and forming a hierarchical belief structure. In order to predict other agents' actions using I-POMDPs, we propose an approach that effectively uses Bayesian inference and sequential Monte Carlo sampling to learn others' intentional models which ascribe to them beliefs, preferences and rationality in action selection. Empirical results show that our algorithm accurately learns models of the other agent and has superior performance than methods that use subintentional models. Our approach serves as a generalized Bayesian learning algorithm that learns other agents' beliefs, strategy levels, and transition, observation and reward functions.


Near-Optimal Time and Sample Complexities for Solving Markov Decision Processes with a Generative Model

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper we consider the problem of computing an $\epsilon$-optimal policy of a discounted Markov Decision Process (DMDP) provided we can only access its transition function through a generative sampling model that given any state-action pair samples from the transition function in $O(1)$ time. Given such a DMDP with states $\states$, actions $\actions$, discount factor $\gamma\in(0,1)$, and rewards in range $[0, 1]$ we provide an algorithm which computes an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with probability $1 - \delta$ where {\it both} the run time spent and number of sample taken is upper bounded by \[ O\left[\frac{|\cS||\cA|}{(1-\gamma)^3 \epsilon^2} \log \left(\frac{|\cS||\cA|}{(1-\gamma)\delta \epsilon} \right) \log\left(\frac{1}{(1-\gamma)\epsilon}\right)\right] ~. \] For fixed values of $\epsilon$, this improves upon the previous best known bounds by a factor of $(1 - \gamma)^{-1}$ and matches the sample complexity lower bounds proved in \cite{azar2013minimax} up to logarithmic factors. We also extend our method to computing $\epsilon$-optimal policies for finite-horizon MDP with a generative model and provide a nearly matching sample complexity lower bound.


Interpreting Neural Network Judgments via Minimal, Stable, and Symbolic Corrections

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a new algorithm to generate minimal, stable, and symbolic corrections to an input that will cause a neural network with ReLU activations to change its output. We argue that such a correction is a useful way to provide feedback to a user when the network's output is different from a desired output. Our algorithm generates such a correction by solving a series of linear constraint satisfaction problems. The technique is evaluated on three neural network models: one predicting whether an applicant will pay a mortgage, one predicting whether a first-order theorem can be proved efficiently by a solver using certain heuristics, and the final one judging whether a drawing is an accurate rendition of a canonical drawing of a cat.


Is Q-Learning Provably Efficient?

Neural Information Processing Systems

Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms directly parameterize and update value functions or policies, bypassing the modeling of the environment. They are typically simpler, more flexible to use, and thus more prevalent in modern deep RL than model-based approaches. However, empirical work has suggested that they require large numbers of samples to learn. The theoretical question of whether not model-free algorithms are in fact \emph{sample efficient} is one of the most fundamental questions in RL. The problem is unsolved even in the basic scenario with finitely many states and actions. We prove that, in an episodic MDP setting, Q-learning with UCB exploration achieves regret $\tlO(\sqrt{H^3 SAT})$ where $S$ and $A$ are the numbers of states and actions, $H$ is the number of steps per episode, and $T$ is the total number of steps. Our regret matches the optimal regret up to a single $\sqrt{H}$ factor. Thus we establish the sample efficiency of a classical model-free approach. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first model-free analysis to establish $\sqrt{T}$ regret \emph{without} requiring access to a ``simulator.''