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Markov Models

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Invented by Geoffrey Hinton in 1985, Restricted Boltzmann Machine which falls under the category of unsupervised learning algorithms is a network of symmetrically connected neuron-like units that make stochastic decisions. This deep learning algorithm became very popular after the Netflix Competition where RBM was used as a collaborative filtering technique to predict user ratings for movies and beat most of its competition. It is useful for regression, classification, dimensionality reduction, feature learning, topic modelling and collaborative filtering. Restricted Boltzmann Machines are stochastic two layered neural networks which belong to a category of energy based models that can detect inherent patterns automatically in the data by reconstructing input. They have two layers visible and hidden.

Markov chain - Wikipedia


A Markov chain is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event.[1][2][3] A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov. Markov chains have many applications as statistical models of real-world processes,[1][4][5][6] such as studying cruise control systems in motor vehicles, queues or lines of customers arriving at an airport, currency exchange rates and animal population dynamics.[7] Markov processes are the basis for general stochastic simulation methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, which are used for simulating sampling from complex probability distributions, and have found application in Bayesian statistics and artificial intelligence.[7][8][9] The adjective Markovian is used to describe something that is related to a Markov process.[1][10] A Markov process is a stochastic process that satisfies the Markov property[1] (sometimes characterized as "memorylessness"). In simpler terms, it is a process for which predictions can be made regarding future outcomes based solely on its present state and--most importantly--such predictions are just as good as the ones that could be made knowing the process's full history.[11] In other words, conditional on the present state of the system, its future and past states are independent. A Markov chain is a type of Markov process that has either a discrete state space or a discrete index set (often representing time), but the precise definition of a Markov chain varies.[12]

Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python


Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto-generated], Portuguese [Auto-generated] Students also bought Data Science: Natural Language Processing (NLP) in Python Bayesian Machine Learning in Python: A/B Testing Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python Ensemble Machine Learning in Python: Random Forest, AdaBoost The Complete Python Course Learn Python by Doing Preview this course GET COUPON CODE Description The Hidden Markov Model or HMM is all about learning sequences. A lot of the data that would be very useful for us to model is in sequences. Stock prices are sequences of prices. Language is a sequence of words. Credit scoring involves sequences of borrowing and repaying money, and we can use those sequences to predict whether or not you're going to default.

Strategies for navigating a dynamic world


One of the most difficult problems for an adaptable agent is gauging how to behave in a nonstationary environment. When conditions are stable, an organism generally pursues a strategy known to provide the best outcome. However, when environmental conditions change, an organism abandons the current action plan and searches for a new best option. The most challenging aspect of this search—calculating the exact time point at which to change strategies—requires the brain to integrate past and present observations and evaluate whether they remain consistent with current environmental conditions. On page 1076 of this issue, Domenech et al. ([ 1 ][1]) report on the modeling of rare direct electrical recordings from the prefrontal cortices (PFCs) of a small group of human epilepsy patients as they flexibly negotiated a nonstationary environment. To understand the brain's mode of navigation, consider for example a sailor at sea (see the figure). The winds and the currents determine the waves that drive the sailor to continuously adjust the rudder so as to stay on course. By observing the wave patterns, he can anticipate the navigational effects of his actions and adapt accordingly. But when the currents or the weather changes, the sailor must adapt his course to reach the next port of call. At that time, the sailor observes essentially the same stimulus (the waves) but has to remap his action plan (rudder adjustments) to the new wind conditions and currents. This difficult-decision problem—how to detect and then adapt to a nonstationary environment—is captured perfectly in the exploration-exploitation dilemma: When should I stop exploiting my current action plan and start exploring different ways to reach my goals? An optimal solution tracks the discounted sum of normalized future rewards. However, this approach applies strictly to stationary environments and thus does not capture the dynamic changes that organisms encounter in their daily lives ([ 2 ][2]). Yet the human brain and those of other species seem to smoothly solve the exploration-exploitation dilemma in nonstationary environments. Decision neuroscience has investigated the flexible adaptation to changing environmental contingencies with diverse experimental paradigms and assorted computational models. The simplest paradigm is probabilistic reversal learning, in which the agent has to search for reward among two options with complementary reward probabilities. This adaptation problem can be solved by hidden Markov models ([ 3 ][3]), which are well-approximated by reinforcement learning (RL) models that also update nonchosen actions ([ 4 ][4]). Extension of this paradigm to include independently changing reward probabilities reveals two distinct neural responses: Expected-value signals, which reflect “exploitative” choices, spur activation of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC); and “explorative” choices (that is, the choosing of a currently lesser valued option) activate the frontopolar cortex ([ 5 ][5]). ![Figure][6] A sailor solves a dilemma at sea As the ship nears bad weather, the sailor's ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) evaluates the ongoing (orange) action plan (exploitation) and the prospective (brown, red) plans (exploration). Once the red (calm waters) plan is exploited, the sailor's dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) uses trial-and-error learning to map the proper rudder adjustments. GRAPHIC: A. KITTERMAN/ SCIENCE Another task with both rapid and slow changes in the reward probabilities of various options was used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that estimates the volatility of the environment and adjusts the learning rate accordingly ([ 6 ][7]). This model has found its generalization in the hierarchical Gaussian filter (HGF) framework ([ 7 ][8]), which is widely used in modeling social and nonsocial human decision-making in nonstationary environments. Although these computational modeling frameworks differ, all are trying to solve similar problems: How to infer the latent structure of the world from discrete observations and how to detect transitions between different states of the world. Domenech et al. address the same problems with yet another experimental paradigm, this one carried out with a small group of human epilepsy patients. Electrodes deeply implanted in the patients' PFCs delivered direct electrical recordings from the vmPFC and dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) while the patients performed a multioption decision task. The participants had to associate three different stimuli with three distinct actions, thus constituting an action plan. The mapping changed every 33 to 57 trials, and participants had to relearn the association of the same stimuli with a different combination of actions, much like our sailor at sea who faces changes in weather and currents that alter wave patterns. The computational model ([ 8 ][9]) generates a reliability value for the ongoing action plan and other concurrently monitored plans. When the ongoing action plan is deemed reliable, the model is in “exploitation” mode and learns the stimulus-action mapping through RL mechanisms. When the ongoing action plan is deemed unreliable, the model switches to “exploration” mode. New provisional action plans are created and evaluated, until one emerges as a reliable predictor for successful stimulus-action mapping (see the figure). Using a state-of-the-art model-based analysis that associates the model-derived variables with the brain activity in various frequency bands of the neural recordings, the authors found a delicate interplay between the vmPFC and dmPFC that supports a predictive coding interpretation for resolution of the exploration-exploitation dilemma. vmPFC monitors and represents the reliability of the ongoing action plan. vmPFC relays the ongoing action plan to the dmPFC as either a “stay” or “switch” trial. A stay trial triggers additional learning through RL mechanisms in the dmPFC. In contrast, the dmPFC responds to a switch trial by suppressing activity related to maintaining the ongoing action plan. These findings resonate with and extend earlier results obtained with functional neuroimaging ([ 5 ][5], [ 9 ][10]). These computational approaches to the problem of behavioral flexibility in a nonstationary environment share one commonality: They are all building a model of the environment and the transition therein, either explicitly (as in the HGF framework) or implicitly (by evaluating the ongoing action plan, as in the Domenech et al. study). Although all of these models strive for generality, each was developed for a specific experimental context. It remains to be seen which of these provides the best account of flexible decision-making in humans and other species, preferably using a unified experimental paradigm. A model-free RL account ([ 10 ][11]) likely will not suffice, as several studies have demonstrated the superiority of more-complex models over this “vanilla” RL model. Rather, an agent requires a rich representation of the environment and its dynamic transitions (often referred to as model-based learning) ([ 10 ][11]) to solve the exploration-exploitation dilemma and flexibly respond to a changing world. 1. [↵][12]1. P. Domenech, 2. S. Rheims, 3. E. Koechlin , Science 369, eabb0184 (2020). [OpenUrl][13][CrossRef][14] 2. [↵][15]1. J. D. Cohen, 2. S. M. McClure, 3. A. J. Yu , Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B 362, 933 (2007). [OpenUrl][16][CrossRef][17][PubMed][18] 3. [↵][19]1. A. N. Hampton, 2. P. Bossaerts, 3. J. P. O'Doherty , J. Neurosci. 26, 8360 (2006). [OpenUrl][20][Abstract/FREE Full Text][21] 4. [↵][22]1. J. Gläscher, 2. A. N. Hampton, 3. J. P. O'Doherty , Cereb. Cortex 19, 483 (2009). [OpenUrl][23][CrossRef][24][PubMed][25][Web of Science][26] 5. [↵][27]1. N. D. Daw, 2. J. P. O'Doherty, 3. P. Dayan, 4. B. Seymour, 5. R. J. Dolan , Nature 441, 876 (2006). [OpenUrl][28][CrossRef][29][PubMed][30][Web of Science][31] 6. [↵][32]1. T. E. J. Behrens, 2. M. W. Woolrich, 3. M. E. Walton, 4. M. F. S. Rushworth , Nat. Neurosci. 10, 1214 (2007). [OpenUrl][33][CrossRef][34][PubMed][35][Web of Science][36] 7. [↵][37]1. C. Mathys, 2. J. Daunizeau, 3. K. J. Friston, 4. K. E. Stephan , Front. Hum. Neurosci. 5, 39 (2011). [OpenUrl][38][CrossRef][39][PubMed][40] 8. [↵][41]1. A. Collins, 2. E. Koechlin , PLOS Biol. 10, e1001293 (2012). [OpenUrl][42][CrossRef][43][PubMed][44] 9. [↵][45]1. M. Donoso, 2. A. G. E. Collins, 3. E. Koechlin , Science 344, 1481 (2014). [OpenUrl][46][Abstract/FREE Full Text][47] 10. [↵][48]1. N. D. Daw, 2. P. Dayan , Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B 369, 20130478 (2014). 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Upsampling Minority Classes in Imbalanced Text Classification Problems Using Markov Chains


Classification problems in supervised machine learning are often troubled by the issue of imbalanced class sizes. Given binary classified data, an imbalanced stratification of the two classes will bias the predictions of a model fit to it. A model trained on data made up of 1,000 samples labeled class "0" and 100 samples labeled class "1" could naively predict class "0" for every test instance and report 90% accuracy. Such an accuracy score is deceptive, as the model is not actually "learning" any trends from the data. This can cause serious problems in deployment.

IBM details research on AI to measure Parkinson's disease progression


IBM says it has made progress toward developing ways to estimate the severity of Parkinson's symptoms by analyzing physical activity as motor impairment increases. In a paper published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, scientists at IBM Research, Pfizer, the Spivack Center for Clinical and Translational Neuroscience, and Tufts created statistical representations of patients' movement that could be evaluated using AI either in-clinic or from a more natural setting, such as a patient's home. And at the 2020 Machine Learning for Healthcare Conference (MLHC), IBM and the Michael J. Fox Foundation intend to detail a disease progression model that pinpoints how far a person's Parkinson's has advanced. The human motor system relies on a series of discrete movements, like arm swinging while walking, running, or jogging, to perform tasks. These movements and the transitions linking them create patterns of activity that can be measured and analyzed for signs of Parkinson's, a disease that's anticipated to affect nearly 1 million people in the U.S. this year alone.

Deep Learning: Convolutional Neural Networks in Python


Online Courses Udemy Deep Learning: Convolutional Neural Networks in Python, Computer Vision and Data Science and Machine Learning combined! In Theano and TensorFlow Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto-generated], Indonesian [Auto-generated], 6 more Students also bought Advanced AI: Deep Reinforcement Learning in Python Deep Learning: Recurrent Neural Networks in Python Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python Bayesian Machine Learning in Python: A/B Testing Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python Preview this course GET COUPON CODE Description This is the 3rd part in my Data Science and Machine Learning series on Deep Learning in Python. At this point, you already know a lot about neural networks and deep learning, including not just the basics like backpropagation, but how to improve it using modern techniques like momentum and adaptive learning rates. You've already written deep neural networks in Theano and TensorFlow, and you know how to run code using the GPU. This course is all about how to use deep learning for computer vision using convolutional neural networks.

Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python


Online Courses Udemy Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python, Full Guide to Implementing Classic Machine Learning Algorithms in Python and with Sci-Kit Learn Created by Lazy Programmer Inc. English [Auto-generated], Spanish [Auto-generated] Students also bought Advanced AI: Deep Reinforcement Learning in Python Deep Learning: Convolutional Neural Networks in Python Deep Learning: Recurrent Neural Networks in Python Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python Bayesian Machine Learning in Python: A/B Testing Preview this course GET COUPON CODE Description In recent years, we've seen a resurgence in AI, or artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Machine learning has led to some amazing results, like being able to analyze medical images and predict diseases on-par with human experts. Google's AlphaGo program was able to beat a world champion in the strategy game go using deep reinforcement learning. Machine learning is even being used to program self driving cars, which is going to change the automotive industry forever. Imagine a world with drastically reduced car accidents, simply by removing the element of human error.

Markov Decision Process


A machine learning algorithm may be tasked with an optimization problem. Using reinforcement learning, the algorithm will attempt to optimize the actions taken within an environment, in order to maximize the potential reward. Where supervised learning techniques require correct input/output pairs to create a model, reinforcement learning uses Markov decision processes to determine an optimal balance of exploration and exploitation. Machine learning may use reinforcement learning by way of the Markov decision process when the probabilities and rewards of an outcome are unspecified or unknown.

Natural Language Processing (NLP) with Python: 2020


Bestseller Created by Ankit Mistry, Vijay Gadhave, Data Science & Machine Learning Academy English [Auto] Students also bought Unsupervised Deep Learning in Python Recommender Systems and Deep Learning in Python Deep Learning: Advanced Computer Vision (GANs, SSD, More!) Deep Learning: GANs and Variational Autoencoders Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python Machine Learning and AI: Support Vector Machines in Python Preview this course GET COUPON CODE Description Recent reviews: "Very practical and interesting, Loved the course material, organization and presentation. Thank you so much" "This is the best course to learn NLP from the basic. According to statista dot com which field of AI is predicted to reach $43 billion by 2025? If answer is'Natural Language Processing', You are at right place. How Android speech recognition recognize your voice with such high accuracy.