We study the $p$-generalized probit regression model, which is a generalized linear model for binary responses. It extends the standard probit model by replacing its link function, the standard normal cdf, by a $p$-generalized normal distribution for $p\in[1, \infty)$. The $p$-generalized normal distributions \citep{Sub23} are of special interest in statistical modeling because they fit much more flexibly to data. Their tail behavior can be controlled by choice of the parameter $p$, which influences the model's sensitivity to outliers. Special cases include the Laplace, the Gaussian, and the uniform distributions. We further show how the maximum likelihood estimator for $p$-generalized probit regression can be approximated efficiently up to a factor of $(1+\varepsilon)$ on large data by combining sketching techniques with importance subsampling to obtain a small data summary called coreset.

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This is Chapter 8 on the book Grokking Machine Learning. Check out the author's YouTube channel Serrano.Academy for lots of machine learning videos! Take 40% off Grokking Machine Learning by entering fccserrano into the discount code box at checkout at manning.com. Naive Bayes is an important machine learning model used for prediction. The naive Bayes model is a purely probabilistic classification model, which means the prediction is a number between 0 and 1, indicating the probability that a label is positive.

The right to be forgotten has been legislated in many countries, but its enforcement in the AI industry would cause unbearable costs. When single data deletion requests come, companies may need to delete the whole models learned with massive resources. Existing works propose methods to remove knowledge learned from data for explicitly parameterized models, which however are not appliable to the sampling-based Bayesian inference, i.e., Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), as MCMC can only infer implicit distributions. In this paper, we propose the first machine unlearning algorithm for MCMC. We first convert the MCMC unlearning problem into an explicit optimization problem. Based on this problem conversion, an MCMC influence function is designed to provably characterize the learned knowledge from data, which then delivers the MCMC unlearning algorithm. Theoretical analysis shows that MCMC unlearning would not compromise the generalizability of the MCMC models. Experiments on Gaussian mixture models and Bayesian neural networks confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. "The right to be forgotten" refers to the right of individuals to request data controllers such as tech giants to delete the data collected from them. It has been recognized in many countries through legislation, including the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation (2016) and the California Consumer Privacy Act (2018).

Energy-based latent variable models (EBLVMs) are more expressive than conventional energy-based models. However, its potential on visual tasks are limited by its training process based on maximum likelihood estimate that requires sampling from two intractable distributions. In this paper, we propose Bi-level doubly variational learning (BiDVL), which is based on a new bi-level optimization framework and two tractable variational distributions to facilitate learning EBLVMs. Particularly, we lead a decoupled EBLVM consisting of a marginal energy-based distribution and a structural posterior to handle the difficulties when learning deep EBLVMs on images. By choosing a symmetric KL divergence in the lower level of our framework, a compact BiDVL for visual tasks can be obtained. Our model achieves impressive image generation performance over related works. It also demonstrates the significant capacity of testing image reconstruction and out-of-distribution detection.

Now we have seen the parameters of a Reparameterization layer. We can start writing the models. First, let's start with how we could create a normal CNN: We will convert this model to a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network. And note that this model has 98.442 parameters in total. Since Reparameterization layers are different from DenseVariational layers in terms of method parameters, we need to consider this when a writing a custom prior & posterior.

We propose a new differentiable probabilistic model over DAGs (DP-DAG). DP-DAG allows fast and differentiable DAG sampling suited to continuous optimization. To this end, DP-DAG samples a DAG by successively (1) sampling a linear ordering of the node and (2) sampling edges consistent with the sampled linear ordering. We further propose VI-DP-DAG, a new method for DAG learning from observational data which combines DP-DAG with variational inference. Hence, VI-DP-DAG approximates the posterior probability over DAG edges given the observed data. VI-DP-DAG is guaranteed to output a valid DAG at any time during training and does not require any complex augmented Lagrangian optimization scheme in contrast to existing differentiable DAG learning approaches. In our extensive experiments, we compare VI-DP-DAG to other differentiable DAG learning baselines on synthetic and real datasets. VI-DP-DAG significantly improves DAG structure and causal mechanism learning while training faster than competitors. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are important mathematical objects in many machine learning tasks. For example, a direct application of DAGs is to represent causal relationships in a system of variables. In this case, variables are represented as nodes and causal relationships are represented as directed edges. Hence, DAG learning has found many applications for causal discovery in biology, economics or planning (Pearl, 1988; Ramsey et al., 2017; Sachs et al., 2005; Zhang et al., 2013). However, DAG learning is a challenging problem for two reasons. First, while DAG learning with data from randomized and controlled experiments is the gold-standard for causal discovery, experimental data might be hard or unethical to obtain in practice.

A common problem in natural sciences is the comparison of competing models in the light of observed data. Bayesian model comparison provides a statistically sound framework for this comparison based on the evidence each model provides for the data. However, this framework relies on the calculation of likelihood functions which are intractable for most models used in practice. Previous approaches in the field of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) circumvent the evaluation of the likelihood and estimate the model evidence based on rejection sampling, but they are typically computationally intense. Here, I propose a new efficient method to perform Bayesian model comparison in ABC. Based on recent advances in posterior density estimation, the method approximates the posterior over models in parametric form. In particular, I train a mixture-density network to map features of the observed data to the posterior probability of the models. The performance is assessed with two examples. On a tractable model comparison problem, the underlying exact posterior probabilities are predicted accurately. In a use-case scenario from computational neuroscience -- the comparison between two ion channel models -- the underlying ground-truth model is reliably assigned a high posterior probability. Overall, the method provides a new efficient way to perform Bayesian model comparison on complex biophysical models independent of the model architecture.

State-of-the-art spectral energy distribution (SED) analyses use a Bayesian framework to infer the physical properties of galaxies from observed photometry or spectra. They require sampling from a high-dimensional space of SED model parameters and take $>10-100$ CPU hours per galaxy, which renders them practically infeasible for analyzing the $billions$ of galaxies that will be observed by upcoming galaxy surveys ($e.g.$ DESI, PFS, Rubin, Webb, and Roman). In this work, we present an alternative scalable approach to rigorous Bayesian inference using Amortized Neural Posterior Estimation (ANPE). ANPE is a simulation-based inference method that employs neural networks to estimate the posterior probability distribution over the full range of observations. Once trained, it requires no additional model evaluations to estimate the posterior. We present, and publicly release, ${\rm SED}{flow}$, an ANPE method to produce posteriors of the recent Hahn et al. (2022) SED model from optical photometry. ${\rm SED}{flow}$ takes ${\sim}1$ $second~per~galaxy$ to obtain the posterior distributions of 12 model parameters, all of which are in excellent agreement with traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling results. We also apply ${\rm SED}{flow}$ to 33,884 galaxies in the NASA-Sloan Atlas and publicly release their posteriors: see https://changhoonhahn.github.io/SEDflow.

Given a supervised machine learning problem where the training set has been subject to a known sampling bias, how can a model be trained to fit the original dataset? We achieve this through the Bayesian inference framework by altering the posterior distribution to account for the sampling function. We then apply this solution to binary logistic regression, and discuss scenarios where a dataset might be subject to intentional sample bias such as label imbalance. This technique is widely applicable for statistical inference on big data, from the medical sciences to image recognition to marketing. Familiarity with it will give the practitioner tools to improve their inference pipeline from data collection to model selection.