Bayesian Learning
Epileptic Seizure Classification Using Combined Labels and a Genetic Algorithm
Davidson, Scot, McCallan, Niamh, Ng, Kok Yew, Biglarbeigi, Pardis, Finlay, Dewar, Lan, Boon Leong, McLaughlin, James
Epilepsy affects 50 million people worldwide and is one of the most common serious neurological disorders. Seizure detection and classification is a valuable tool for diagnosing and maintaining the condition. An automated classification algorithm will allow for accurate diagnosis. Utilising the Temple University Hospital (TUH) Seizure Corpus, six seizure types are compared; absence, complex partial, myoclonic, simple partial, tonic and tonic- clonic models. This study proposes a method that utilises unique features with a novel parallel classifier - Parallel Genetic Naive Bayes (NB) Seizure Classifier (PGNBSC). The PGNBSC algorithm searches through the features and by reclassifying the data each time, the algorithm will create a matrix for optimum search criteria. Ictal states from the EEGs are segmented into 1.8 s windows, where the epochs are then further decomposed into 13 different features from the first intrinsic mode function (IMF). The features are compared using an original NB classifier in the first model. This is improved upon in a second model by using a genetic algorithm (Binary Grey Wolf Optimisation, Option 1) with a NB classifier. The third model uses a combination of the simple partial and complex partial seizures to provide the highest classification accuracy for each of the six seizures amongst the three models (20%, 53%, and 85% for first, second, and third model, respectively).
Variational Kalman Filtering with Hinf-Based Correction for Robust Bayesian Learning in High Dimensions
Das, Niladri, Duersch, Jed A., Catanach, Thomas A.
In this paper, we address the problem of convergence of sequential variational inference filter (VIF) through the application of a robust variational objective and Hinf-norm based correction for a linear Gaussian system. As the dimension of state or parameter space grows, performing the full Kalman update with the dense covariance matrix for a large scale system requires increased storage and computational complexity, making it impractical. The VIF approach, based on mean-field Gaussian variational inference, reduces this burden through the variational approximation to the covariance usually in the form of a diagonal covariance approximation. The challenge is to retain convergence and correct for biases introduced by the sequential VIF steps. We desire a framework that improves feasibility while still maintaining reasonable proximity to the optimal Kalman filter as data is assimilated. To accomplish this goal, a Hinf-norm based optimization perturbs the VIF covariance matrix to improve robustness. This yields a novel VIF- Hinf recursion that employs consecutive variational inference and Hinf based optimization steps. We explore the development of this method and investigate a numerical example to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filter.
Spending Privacy Budget Fairly and Wisely
Rosenblatt, Lucas, Allen, Joshua, Stoyanovich, Julia
Differentially private (DP) synthetic data generation is a practical method for improving access to data as a means to encourage productive partnerships. One issue inherent to DP is that the "privacy budget" is generally "spent" evenly across features in the data set. This leads to good statistical parity with the real data, but can undervalue the conditional probabilities and marginals that are critical for predictive quality of synthetic data. Further, loss of predictive quality may be non-uniform across the data set, with subsets that correspond to minority groups potentially suffering a higher loss. In this paper, we develop ensemble methods that distribute the privacy budget "wisely" to maximize predictive accuracy of models trained on DP data, and "fairly" to bound potential disparities in accuracy across groups and reduce inequality. Our methods are based on the insights that feature importance can inform how privacy budget is allocated, and, further, that per-group feature importance and fairness-related performance objectives can be incorporated in the allocation. These insights make our methods tunable to social contexts, allowing data owners to produce balanced synthetic data for predictive analysis.
A Differentially Private Probabilistic Framework for Modeling the Variability Across Federated Datasets of Heterogeneous Multi-View Observations
Balelli, Irene, Silva, Santiago, Lorenzi, Marco
We propose a novel federated learning paradigm to model data variability among heterogeneous clients in multi-centric studies. Our method is expressed through a hierarchical Bayesian latent variable model, where client-specific parameters are assumed to be realization from a global distribution at the master level, which is in turn estimated to account for data bias and variability across clients. We show that our framework can be effectively optimized through expectation maximization (EM) over latent master's distribution and clients' parameters. We also introduce formal differential privacy (DP) guarantees compatibly with our EM optimization scheme. We tested our method on the analysis of multi-modal medical imaging data and clinical scores from distributed clinical datasets of patients affected by Alzheimer's disease. We demonstrate that our method is robust when data is distributed either in iid and non-iid manners, even when local parameters perturbation is included to provide DP guarantees. Moreover, the variability of data, views and centers can be quantified in an interpretable manner, while guaranteeing high-quality data reconstruction as compared to state-of-the-art autoencoding models and federated learning schemes.
Finding a Landing Site on an Urban Area: A Multi-Resolution Probabilistic Approach
Pinkovich, Barak, Matalon, Boaz, Rivlin, Ehud, Rotstein, Hector
This paper considers the problem of finding a landing spot for a drone in a dense urban environment. The conflicting requirement of fast exploration and high resolution is solved using a multi-resolution approach, by which visual information is collected by the drone at decreasing altitudes so that spatial resolution of the acquired images increases monotonically. A probability distribution is used to capture the uncertainty of the decision process for each terrain patch. The distributions are updated as information from different altitudes is collected. When the confidence level for one of the patches becomes larger than a pre-specified threshold, suitability for landing is declared. One of the main building blocks of the approach is a semantic segmentation algorithm that attaches probabilities to each pixel of a single view. The decision algorithm combines these probabilities with a priori data and previous measurements to obtain the best estimates. Feasibility is illustrated by presenting a number of examples generated by a realistic closed-loop simulator.
Data Science: Supervised Machine Learning in Python
In recent years, we've seen a resurgence in AI, or artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Machine learning has led to some amazing results, like being able to analyze medical images and predict diseases on-par with human experts. Google's AlphaGo program was able to beat a world champion in the strategy game go using deep reinforcement learning. Machine learning is even being used to program self driving cars, which is going to change the automotive industry forever. Imagine a world with drastically reduced car accidents, simply by removing the element of human error.
The Galactic 3D large-scale dust distribution via Gaussian process regression on spherical coordinates
Leike, R. H., Edenhofer, G., Knollmรผller, J., Alig, C., Frank, P., Enรlin, T. A.
Knowing the Galactic 3D dust distribution is relevant for understanding many processes in the interstellar medium and for correcting many astronomical observations for dust absorption and emission. Here, we aim for a 3D reconstruction of the Galactic dust distribution with an increase in the number of meaningful resolution elements by orders of magnitude with respect to previous reconstructions, while taking advantage of the dust's spatial correlations to inform the dust map. We use iterative grid refinement to define a log-normal process in spherical coordinates. This log-normal process assumes a fixed correlation structure, which was inferred in an earlier reconstruction of Galactic dust. Our map is informed through 111 Million data points, combining data of PANSTARRS, 2MASS, Gaia DR2 and ALLWISE. The log-normal process is discretized to 122 Billion degrees of freedom, a factor of 400 more than our previous map. We derive the most probable posterior map and an uncertainty estimate using natural gradient descent and the Fisher-Laplace approximation. The dust reconstruction covers a quarter of the volume of our Galaxy, with a maximum coordinate distance of $16\,\text{kpc}$, and meaningful information can be found up to at distances of $4\,$kpc, still improving upon our earlier map by a factor of 5 in maximal distance, of $900$ in volume, and of about eighteen in angular grid resolution. Unfortunately, the maximum posterior approach chosen to make the reconstruction computational affordable introduces artifacts and reduces the accuracy of our uncertainty estimate. Despite of the apparent limitations of the presented 3D dust map, a good part of the reconstructed structures are confirmed by independent maser observations. Thus, the map is a step towards reliable 3D Galactic cartography and already can serve for a number of tasks, if used with care.
SIReN-VAE: Leveraging Flows and Amortized Inference for Bayesian Networks
Initial work on variational autoencoders assumed independent latent variables with simple distributions. Subsequent work has explored incorporating more complex distributions and dependency structures: including normalizing flows in the encoder network allows latent variables to entangle non-linearly, creating a richer class of distributions for the approximate posterior, and stacking layers of latent variables allows more complex priors to be specified for the generative model. This work explores incorporating arbitrary dependency structures, as specified by Bayesian networks, into VAEs. This is achieved by extending both the prior and inference network with graphical residual flows - residual flows that encode conditional independence by masking the weight matrices of the flow's residual blocks. We compare our model's performance on several synthetic datasets and show its potential in data-sparse settings.
Learning and Inference in Sparse Coding Models with Langevin Dynamics
Fang, Michael Y. -S., Mudigonda, Mayur, Zarcone, Ryan, Khosrowshahi, Amir, Olshausen, Bruno A.
We describe a stochastic, dynamical system capable of inference and learning in a probabilistic latent variable model. The most challenging problem in such models - sampling the posterior distribution over latent variables - is proposed to be solved by harnessing natural sources of stochasticity inherent in electronic and neural systems. We demonstrate this idea for a sparse coding model by deriving a continuous-time equation for inferring its latent variables via Langevin dynamics. The model parameters are learned by simultaneously evolving according to another continuous-time equation, thus bypassing the need for digital accumulators or a global clock. Moreover we show that Langevin dynamics lead to an efficient procedure for sampling from the posterior distribution in the 'L0 sparse' regime, where latent variables are encouraged to be set to zero as opposed to having a small L1 norm. This allows the model to properly incorporate the notion of sparsity rather than having to resort to a relaxed version of sparsity to make optimization tractable. Simulations of the proposed dynamical system on both synthetic and natural image datasets demonstrate that the model is capable of probabilistically correct inference, enabling learning of the dictionary as well as parameters of the prior.
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