We develop a multiscale approach to estimate high-dimensional probability distributions from a dataset of physical fields or configurations observed in experiments or simulations. In this way we can estimate energy functions (or Hamiltonians) and efficiently generate new samples of many-body systems in various domains, from statistical physics to cosmology. Our method -- the Wavelet Conditional Renormalization Group (WC-RG) -- proceeds scale by scale, estimating models for the conditional probabilities of "fast degrees of freedom" conditioned by coarse-grained fields. These probability distributions are modeled by energy functions associated with scale interactions, and are represented in an orthogonal wavelet basis. WC-RG decomposes the microscopic energy function as a sum of interaction energies at all scales and can efficiently generate new samples by going from coarse to fine scales. Near phase transitions, it avoids the "critical slowing down" of direct estimation and sampling algorithms. This is explained theoretically by combining results from RG and wavelet theories, and verified numerically for the Gaussian and $\varphi^4$ field theories. We show that multiscale WC-RG energy-based models are more general than local potential models and can capture the physics of complex many-body interacting systems at all length scales. This is demonstrated for weak-gravitational-lensing fields reflecting dark matter distributions in cosmology, which include long-range interactions with long-tail probability distributions. WC-RG has a large number of potential applications in non-equilibrium systems, where the underlying distribution is not known {\it a priori}. Finally, we discuss the connection between WC-RG and deep network architectures.

Despite the progress observed with model-agnostic explainable AI (XAI), it is the case that model-agnostic XAI can produce incorrect explanations. One alternative are the so-called formal approaches to XAI, that include PI-explanations. Unfortunately, PI-explanations also exhibit important drawbacks, the most visible of which is arguably their size. The computation of relevant features serves to trade off probabilistic precision for the number of features in an explanation. However, even for very simple classifiers, the complexity of computing sets of relevant features is prohibitive. This paper investigates the computation of relevant sets for Naive Bayes Classifiers (NBCs), and shows that, in practice, these are easy to compute. Furthermore, the experiments confirm that succinct sets of relevant features can be obtained with NBCs.

We study the problem of learning the structure of an optimal Bayesian network when additional constraints are posed on the network or on its moralized graph. More precisely, we consider the constraint that the network or its moralized graph are close, in terms of vertex or edge deletions, to a sparse graph class Π. For example, we show that learning an optimal network whose moralized graph has vertex deletion distance at most k from a graph with maximum degree 1 can be computed in polynomial time when k is constant. This extends previous work that gave an algorithm with such a running time for the vertex deletion distance to edgeless graphs. We then show that further extensions or improvements are presumably impossible. For example, we show that learning optimal networks where the network or its moralized graph have maximum degree 2 or connected components of size at most c, c ≥ 3, is NP-hard. Finally, we show that learning an optimal network with at most k edges in the moralized graph presumably has no f(k) · |I|O(1)-time algorithm and that, in contrast, an optimal network with at most k arcs can be computed in 2O(k) · |I|O(1) time where |I| is the total input size.

The book covers a broad array of topics not usually included in introductory machine learning texts, including supervised learning, Bayesian decision theory, parametric methods, semiparametric methods, nonparametric methods, multivariate analysis, hidden Markov models, reinforcement learning, kernel machines, graphical models, Bayesian estimation, and statistical testing. The fourth edition offers a new chapter on deep learning that discusses training, regularizing, and structuring deep neural networks such as convolutional and generative adversarial networks; new material in the chapter on reinforcement learning that covers the use of deep networks, the policy gradient methods, and deep reinforcement learning; new material in the chapter on multilayer perceptrons on autoencoders and the word2vec network; and discussion of a popular method of dimensionality reduction, t-SNE. New appendixes offer background material on linear algebra and optimization. End-of-chapter exercises help readers to apply concepts learned. Introduction to Machine Learning can be used in courses for advanced undergraduate and graduate students and as a reference for professionals.

How to sample high quality negative instances from unlabeled data, i.e., negative sampling, is important for training implicit collaborative filtering and contrastive learning models. Although previous studies have proposed some approaches to sample informative instances, few has been done to discriminating false negative from true negative for unbiased negative sampling. On the basis of our order relation analysis of negatives' scores, we first derive the class conditional density of true negatives and that of false negatives. We next design a Bayesian classifier for negative classification, from which we define a model-agnostic posterior probability estimate of an instance being true negative as a quantitative negative signal measure. We also propose a Bayesian optimal sampling rule to sample high-quality negatives. The proposed Bayesian Negative Sampling (BNS) algorithm has a linear time complexity. Experimental studies validate the superiority of BNS over the peers in terms of better sampling quality and better recommendation performance.

A major issue in the association of genes to neuroimaging phenotypes is the high dimension of both genetic data and neuroimaging data. In this article, we tackle the latter problem with an eye toward developing solutions that are relevant for disease prediction. Supported by a vast literature on the predictive power of neural networks, our proposed solution uses neural networks to extract from neuroimaging data features that are relevant for predicting Alzheimer's Disease (AD) for subsequent relation to genetics. Our neuroimaging-genetic pipeline is comprised of image processing, neuroimaging feature extraction and genetic association steps. We propose a neural network classifier for extracting neuroimaging features that are related with disease and a multivariate Bayesian group sparse regression model for genetic association. We compare the predictive power of these features to expert selected features and take a closer look at the SNPs identified with the new neuroimaging features.

Bayesian hierarchical models are well-suited to analyzing the often noisy data from electroencephalography experiments in cognitive neuroscience: these models provide an intuitive framework to account for structures and correlations in the data, and they allow a straightforward handling of uncertainty. In a typical neurolinguistic experiment, event-related potentials show only very small effect sizes and frequentist approaches to data analysis fail to establish the significance of some of these effects. Here, we present a Bayesian approach to analyzing event-related potentials using as an example data from an experiment which relates word surprisal and neural response. Our model is able to estimate the effect of word surprisal on most components of the event-related potential and provides a richer description of the data. The Bayesian framework also allows easier comparison between estimates based on surprisal values calculated using different language models.

Unlike linear models and SVM (see Part 1), some machine learning models are really complex to learn from their mathematical formulation. Fortunately, they can be understood by following a step-by-step process they execute on a small dummy dataset. This way, you can uncover machine learning models under the hood without the "math bottleneck". You will learn three more models in this story after Part 1: K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Naive Bayes, and Decision Tree. KNN is a non-generalizing machine learning model since it simply "remembers" all of its train data.

This paper introduces a novel approach to embed flow-based models with hierarchical structures. The proposed framework is named Variational Flow Graphical (VFG) Model. VFGs learn the representation of high dimensional data via a message-passing scheme by integrating flow-based functions through variational inference. By leveraging the expressive power of neural networks, VFGs produce a representation of the data using a lower dimension, thus overcoming the drawbacks of many flow-based models, usually requiring a high dimensional latent space involving many trivial variables. Aggregation nodes are introduced in the VFG models to integrate forward-backward hierarchical information via a message passing scheme. Maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) of data likelihood aligns the forward and backward messages in each aggregation node achieving a consistency node state. Algorithms have been developed to learn model parameters through gradient updating regarding the ELBO objective. The consistency of aggregation nodes enable VFGs to be applicable in tractable inference on graphical structures. Besides representation learning and numerical inference, VFGs provide a new approach for distribution modeling on datasets with graphical latent structures. Additionally, theoretical study shows that VFGs are universal approximators by leveraging the implicitly invertible flow-based structures. With flexible graphical structures and superior excessive power, VFGs could potentially be used to improve probabilistic inference. In the experiments, VFGs achieves improved evidence lower bound (ELBO) and likelihood values on multiple datasets.

As the number of smart devices that surround us increases, so do the opportunities to create smart socially-aware systems. In this context, mobile devices can be used to collect data about students and to better understand how their day-to-day routines can influence their academic performance. Moreover, the Covid-19 pandemic led to new challenges and difficulties, also for students, with considerable impact on their lifestyle. In this paper we present a dataset collected using a smartphone application (ISABELA), which include passive data (e.g., activity and location) as well as self-reported data from questionnaires. We present several tests with different machine learning models, in order to classify students' performance. These tests were carried out using different time windows, showing that weekly time windows lead to better prediction and classification results than monthly time windows. Furthermore, it is shown that the created models can predict student performance even with data collected from different contexts, namely before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. SVMs, XGBoost and AdaBoost-SAMME with Random Forest were found to be the best algorithms, showing an accuracy greater than 78%. Additionally, we propose a pipeline that uses a decision level median voting algorithm to further improve the models' performance, by using historic data from the students to further improve the prediction. Using this pipeline, it is possible to further increase the performance of the models, with some of them obtaining an accuracy greater than 90%.