Customer churn prediction is a valuable task in many industries. In telecommunications it presents great challenges, given the high dimensionality of the data, and how difficult it is to identify underlying frustration signatures, which may represent an important driver regarding future churn behaviour. Here, we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical joint model that is able to characterise customer profiles based on how many events take place within different television watching journeys, and how long it takes between events. The model drastically reduces the dimensionality of the data from thousands of observations per customer to 11 customer-level parameter estimates and random effects. We test our methodology using data from 40 BT customers (20 active and 20 who eventually cancelled their subscription) whose TV watching behaviours were recorded from October to December 2019, totalling approximately half a million observations. Employing different machine learning techniques using the parameter estimates and random effects from the Bayesian hierarchical model as features yielded up to 92\% accuracy predicting churn, associated with 100\% true positive rates and false positive rates as low as 14\% on a validation set. Our proposed methodology represents an efficient way of reducing the dimensionality of the data, while at the same time maintaining high descriptive and predictive capabilities. We provide code to implement the Bayesian model at https://github.com/rafamoral/profiling_tv_watching_behaviour.

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how do we physically and statistically interpret these uncertainties?" The answer to this question depends not only on the computational task we aim to undertake, but also on the methods we use for that task. For artificial intelligence (AI) applications in HEP, there are several areas where interpretable methods for UQ are essential, including inference, simulation, and control/decision-making. There exist some methods for each of these areas, but they have not yet been demonstrated to be as trustworthy as more traditional approaches currently employed in physics (e.g., non-AI frequentist and Bayesian methods). Shedding light on the questions above requires additional understanding of the interplay of AI systems and uncertainty quantification. We briefly discuss the existing methods in each area and relate them to tasks across HEP. We then discuss recommendations for avenues to pursue to develop the necessary techniques for reliable widespread usage of AI with UQ over the next decade.

Semantic mapping complements geometric modelling of a Mapping, localization and navigation are among the key robot's surroundings with semantic concepts, i.e., an understanding capabilities of autonomous systems. For robots to navigate of what the environment means to the robot. With safely in complex and evolving environments, mapping semantic mapping, these semantic concepts manifest as a can act as a unified framework that addresses multiple representation of the environment, thus lending robots more perception sub-tasks required for a higher-level scene understanding, resources for task planning and execution. The emergence of such as occupancy/traversability estimation, object semantic mapping can be attributed to (i) the limitations of detection and tracking. While some research streams employ purely geometric maps, and (ii) the advancements in deep end-to-end deep neural networks for mapless navigation via neural networks that allow semantic interpretation of raw imitation [1], [2], reinforcement [3], [4] or self-supervised sensory data [6].

As complex machine learning models are increasingly used in sensitive applications like banking, trading or credit scoring, there is a growing demand for reliable explanation mechanisms. Local feature attribution methods have become a popular technique for post-hoc and model-agnostic explanations. However, attribution methods typically assume a stationary environment in which the predictive model has been trained and remains stable. As a result, it is often unclear how local attributions behave in realistic, constantly evolving settings such as streaming and online applications. In this paper, we discuss the impact of temporal change on local feature attributions. In particular, we show that local attributions can become obsolete each time the predictive model is updated or concept drift alters the data generating distribution. Consequently, local feature attributions in data streams provide high explanatory power only when combined with a mechanism that allows us to detect and respond to local changes over time. To this end, we present CDLEEDS, a flexible and model-agnostic framework for detecting local change and concept drift. CDLEEDS serves as an intuitive extension of attribution-based explanation techniques to identify outdated local attributions and enable more targeted recalculations. In experiments, we also show that the proposed framework can reliably detect both local and global concept drift. Accordingly, our work contributes to a more meaningful and robust explainability in online machine learning.

In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for statistical model checking (SMC) of probabilistic hyperproperties specified in the logic HyperPCTL* on discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs). While SMC of HyperPCTL* using sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) has been explored before, we develop an alternative SMC algorithm based on Bayesian hypothesis testing. In comparison to PCTL*, verifying HyperPCTL* formulae is complex owing to their simultaneous interpretation on multiple paths of the DTMC. In addition, extending the bottom-up model-checking algorithm of the non-probabilistic setting is not straight forward due to the fact that SMC does not return exact answers to the satisfiability problems of subformulae, instead, it only returns correct answers with high-confidence. We propose a recursive algorithm for SMC of HyperPCTL* based on a modified Bayes' test that factors in the uncertainty in the recursive satisfiability results. We have implemented our algorithm in a Python toolbox, HyProVer, and compared our approach with the SPRT based SMC. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates that our Bayesian SMC algorithm performs better both in terms of the verification time and the number of samples required to deduce satisfiability of a given HyperPCTL* formula.

Probabilistic graphical models are a powerful concept for modeling high-dimensional distributions. Besides modeling distributions, probabilistic graphical models also provide an elegant framework for performing statistical inference; because of the high-dimensional nature, however, one must often use approximate methods for this purpose. Belief propagation performs approximate inference, is efficient, and looks back on a long success-story. Yet, in most cases, belief propagation lacks any performance and convergence guarantees. Many realistic problems are presented by graphical models with loops, however, in which case belief propagation is neither guaranteed to provide accurate estimates nor that it converges at all. This thesis investigates how the model parameters influence the performance of belief propagation. We are particularly interested in their influence on (i) the number of fixed points, (ii) the convergence properties, and (iii) the approximation quality.

Data used to train machine learning (ML) models can be sensitive. Membership inference attacks (MIAs), attempting to determine whether a particular data record was used to train an ML model, risk violating membership privacy. ML model builders need a principled definition of a metric to quantify the membership privacy risk of (a) individual training data records, (b) computed independently of specific MIAs, (c) which assesses susceptibility to different MIAs, (d) can be used for different applications, and (e) efficiently. None of the prior membership privacy risk metrics simultaneously meet all these requirements. We present SHAPr, a membership privacy metric based on Shapley values which is a leave-one-out (LOO) technique, originally intended to measure the contribution of a training data record on model utility. We conjecture that contribution to model utility can act as a proxy for memorization, and hence represent membership privacy risk. Using ten benchmark datasets, we show that SHAPr is indeed effective in estimating susceptibility of training data records to MIAs. We also show that, unlike prior work, SHAPr is significantly better in estimating susceptibility to newer, and more effective MIA. We apply SHAPr to evaluate the efficacy of several defenses against MIAs: using regularization and removing high risk training data records. Moreover, SHAPr is versatile: it can be used for estimating vulnerability of different subgroups to MIAs, and inherits applications of Shapley values (e.g., data valuation). We show that SHAPr has an acceptable computational cost (compared to naive LOO), varying from a few minutes for the smallest dataset to ~92 minutes for the largest dataset.

Transportation activity-based simulators (ABMs) represent an individual traveler's activity patterns and trips throughout the day by using nested choice models. The generated trips are then simulated in a traffic flow simulator to learn system-level patterns. These behaviorally-realistic models require a high-resolution representation of network flows and, thus, are computationally expensive. The very same flexibility which makes these simulation models appealing, also makes their calibration problems intractable, with the number of simulations required to find an optimal solution growing exponentially as the input dimension increases [90, 70]. As a result, the use of these simulators is currently limited to what-if analysis. This paper focuses on calibrating the static choice model parameters used in activity-based simulators. The goal of calibration is to find values of the simulator's input parameters θ that minimizes the deviance between observed data and simulator's outputs.

We consider a novel task of automatically generating text descriptions of music. Compared with other well-established text generation tasks such as image caption, the scarcity of well-paired music and text datasets makes it a much more challenging task. In this paper, we exploit the crowd-sourced music comments to construct a new dataset and propose a sequence-to-sequence model to generate text descriptions of music. More concretely, we use the dilated convolutional layer as the basic component of the encoder and a memory based recurrent neural network as the decoder. To enhance the authenticity and thematicity of generated texts, we further propose to fine-tune the model with a discriminator as well as a novel topic evaluator. To measure the quality of generated texts, we also propose two new evaluation metrics, which are more aligned with human evaluation than traditional metrics such as BLEU. Experimental results verify that our model is capable of generating fluent and meaningful comments while containing thematic and content information of the original music.

Automated analysis of electron microscopy datasets poses multiple challenges, such as limitation in the size of the training dataset, variation in data distribution induced by variation in sample quality and experiment conditions, etc. It is crucial for the trained model to continue to provide acceptable segmentation/classification performance on new data, and quantify the uncertainty associated with its predictions. Among the broad applications of machine learning, various approaches have been adopted to quantify uncertainty, such as Bayesian modeling, Monte Carlo dropout, ensembles, etc. With the aim of addressing the challenges specific to the data domain of electron microscopy, two different types of ensembles of pre-trained neural networks were implemented in this work. The ensembles performed semantic segmentation of ice crystal within a two-phase mixture, thereby tracking its phase transformation to water. The first ensemble (EA) is composed of U-net style networks having different underlying architectures, whereas the second series of ensembles (ER-i) are composed of randomly initialized U-net style networks, wherein each base learner has the same underlying architecture 'i'. The encoders of the base learners were pre-trained on the Imagenet dataset. The performance of EA and ER were evaluated on three different metrics: accuracy, calibration, and uncertainty. It is seen that EA exhibits a greater classification accuracy and is better calibrated, as compared to ER. While the uncertainty quantification of these two types of ensembles are comparable, the uncertainty scores exhibited by ER were found to be dependent on the specific architecture of its base member ('i') and not consistently better than EA. Thus, the challenges posed for the analysis of electron microscopy datasets appear to be better addressed by an ensemble design like EA, as compared to an ensemble design like ER.