Bayesian Learning
Socially Enhanced Situation Awareness from Microblogs using Artificial Intelligence: A Survey
Lamsal, Rabindra, Harwood, Aaron, Read, Maria Rodriguez
The rise of social media platforms provides an unbounded, infinitely rich source of aggregate knowledge of the world around us, both historic and real-time, from a human perspective. The greatest challenge we face is how to process and understand this raw and unstructured data, go beyond individual observations and see the "big picture"--the domain of Situation Awareness. We provide an extensive survey of Artificial Intelligence research, focusing on microblog social media data with applications to Situation Awareness, that gives the seminal work and state-of-the-art approaches across six thematic areas: Crime, Disasters, Finance, Physical Environment, Politics, and Health and Population. We provide a novel, unified methodological perspective, identify key results and challenges, and present ongoing research directions.
Uncertainty Quantification of the 4th kind; optimal posterior accuracy-uncertainty tradeoff with the minimum enclosing ball
Bajgiran, Hamed Hamze, Franch, Pau Batlle, Owhadi, Houman, Samir, Mostafa, Scovel, Clint, Shirdel, Mahdy, Stanley, Michael, Tavallali, Peyman
There are essentially three kinds of approaches to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (A) robust optimization, (B) Bayesian, (C) decision theory. Although (A) is robust, it is unfavorable with respect to accuracy and data assimilation. (B) requires a prior, it is generally brittle and posterior estimations can be slow. Although (C) leads to the identification of an optimal prior, its approximation suffers from the curse of dimensionality and the notion of risk is one that is averaged with respect to the distribution of the data. We introduce a 4th kind which is a hybrid between (A), (B), (C), and hypothesis testing. It can be summarized as, after observing a sample $x$, (1) defining a likelihood region through the relative likelihood and (2) playing a minmax game in that region to define optimal estimators and their risk. The resulting method has several desirable properties (a) an optimal prior is identified after measuring the data, and the notion of risk is a posterior one, (b) the determination of the optimal estimate and its risk can be reduced to computing the minimum enclosing ball of the image of the likelihood region under the quantity of interest map (which is fast and not subject to the curse of dimensionality). The method is characterized by a parameter in $ [0,1]$ acting as an assumed lower bound on the rarity of the observed data (the relative likelihood). When that parameter is near $1$, the method produces a posterior distribution concentrated around a maximum likelihood estimate with tight but low confidence UQ estimates. When that parameter is near $0$, the method produces a maximal risk posterior distribution with high confidence UQ estimates. In addition to navigating the accuracy-uncertainty tradeoff, the proposed method addresses the brittleness of Bayesian inference by navigating the robustness-accuracy tradeoff associated with data assimilation.
Challenges and Pitfalls of Bayesian Unlearning
Rawat, Ambrish, Requeima, James, Bruinsma, Wessel, Turner, Richard
Machine unlearning refers to the task of removing a subset of training data, thereby removing its contributions to a trained model. Approximate unlearning are one class of methods for this task which avoid the need to retrain the model from scratch on the retained data. Bayes' rule can be used to cast approximate unlearning as an inference problem where the objective is to obtain the updated posterior by dividing out the likelihood of deleted data. However this has its own set of challenges as one often doesn't have access to the exact posterior of the model parameters. In this work we examine the use of the Laplace approximation and Variational Inference to obtain the updated posterior. With a neural network trained for a regression task as the guiding example, we draw insights on the applicability of Bayesian unlearning in practical scenarios.
A Survey on Machine Learning Techniques for Source Code Analysis
Sharma, Tushar, Kechagia, Maria, Georgiou, Stefanos, Tiwari, Rohit, Vats, Indira, Moazen, Hadi, Sarro, Federica
The advancements in machine learning techniques have encouraged researchers to apply these techniques to a myriad of software engineering tasks that use source code analysis, such as testing and vulnerability detection. Such a large number of studies hinders the community from understanding the current research landscape. This paper aims to summarize the current knowledge in applied machine learning for source code analysis. We review studies belonging to twelve categories of software engineering tasks and corresponding machine learning techniques, tools, and datasets that have been applied to solve them. To do so, we conducted an extensive literature search and identified 479 primary studies published between 2011 and 2021. We summarize our observations and findings with the help of the identified studies. Our findings suggest that the use of machine learning techniques for source code analysis tasks is consistently increasing. We synthesize commonly used steps and the overall workflow for each task and summarize machine learning techniques employed. We identify a comprehensive list of available datasets and tools useable in this context. Finally, the paper discusses perceived challenges in this area, including the availability of standard datasets, reproducibility and replicability, and hardware resources.
A Causal-based Approach to Explain, Predict and Prevent Failures in Robotic Tasks
Diehl, Maximilian, Ramirez-Amaro, Karinne
Robots working in real environments need to adapt to unexpected changes to avoid failures. This is an open and complex challenge that requires robots to timely predict and identify the causes of failures to prevent them. In this paper, we present a causal method that will enable robots to predict when errors are likely to occur and prevent them from happening by executing a corrective action. First, we propose a causal-based method to detect the cause-effect relationships between task executions and their consequences by learning a causal Bayesian network (BN). The obtained model is transferred from simulated data to real scenarios to demonstrate the robustness and generalization of the obtained models. Based on the causal BN, the robot can predict if and why the executed action will succeed or not in its current state. Then, we introduce a novel method that finds the closest state alternatives through a contrastive Breadth-First-Search if the current action was predicted to fail. We evaluate our approach for the problem of stacking cubes in two cases; a) single stacks (stacking one cube) and; b) multiple stacks (stacking three cubes). In the single-stack case, our method was able to reduce the error rate by 97%. We also show that our approach can scale to capture multiple actions in one model, allowing to measure timely shifted action effects, such as the impact of an imprecise stack of the first cube on the stacking success of the third cube. For these complex situations, our model was able to prevent around 75% of the stacking errors, even for the challenging multiple-stack scenario. Thus, demonstrating that our method is able to explain, predict, and prevent execution failures, which even scales to complex scenarios that require an understanding of how the action history impacts future actions.
BayesLDM: A Domain-Specific Language for Probabilistic Modeling of Longitudinal Data
Tung, Karine, De La Torre, Steven, Mistiri, Mohamed El, De Braganca, Rebecca Braga, Hekler, Eric, Pavel, Misha, Rivera, Daniel, Klasnja, Pedja, Spruijt-Metz, Donna, Marlin, Benjamin M.
In this paper we present BayesLDM, a system for Bayesian longitudinal data modeling consisting of a high-level modeling language with specific features for modeling complex multivariate time series data coupled with a compiler that can produce optimized probabilistic program code for performing inference in the specified model. BayesLDM supports modeling of Bayesian network models with a specific focus on the efficient, declarative specification of dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs). The BayesLDM compiler combines a model specification with inspection of available data and outputs code for performing Bayesian inference for unknown model parameters while simultaneously handling missing data. These capabilities have the potential to significantly accelerate iterative modeling workflows in domains that involve the analysis of complex longitudinal data by abstracting away the process of producing computationally efficient probabilistic inference code. We describe the BayesLDM system components, evaluate the efficiency of representation and inference optimizations and provide an illustrative example of the application of the system to analyzing heterogeneous and partially observed mobile health data.
Ordinal Graph Gamma Belief Network for Social Recommender Systems
Wang, Dongsheng, Wang, Chaojie, Chen, Bo, Zhou, Mingyuan
To build recommender systems that not only consider user-item interactions represented as ordinal variables, but also exploit the social network describing the relationships between the users, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model termed ordinal graph factor analysis (OGFA), which jointly models user-item and user-user interactions. OGFA not only achieves good recommendation performance, but also extracts interpretable latent factors corresponding to representative user preferences. We further extend OGFA to ordinal graph gamma belief network, which is a multi-stochastic-layer deep probabilistic model that captures the user preferences and social communities at multiple semantic levels. For efficient inference, we develop a parallel hybrid Gibbs-EM algorithm, which exploits the sparsity of the graphs and is scalable to large datasets. Our experimental results show that the proposed models not only outperform recent baselines on recommendation datasets with explicit or implicit feedback, but also provide interpretable latent representations.
PH.D. STUDENTS' TOP 10 INTERESTING ML DISSERTATIONS
Candidates for doctoral degrees are greatly driven to select research areas that open up fresh, inventive avenues for scientific advancement. It is difficult to choose and work on a machine learning dissertation topic because machine learning relies on statistical techniques to instruct computers to perform particular tasks without explicit programming. The primary goal of machine learning is to build intelligent machines that can function and think like people. The top 10 ML dissertations for Ph.D. candidates to attempt in 2022 are presented in this article. Text Mining and Text Classification Text mining is an AI technology that uses NLP to transform the free text in documents and databases into normalized, structured data suitable for analysis or to drive ML algorithms.
Public Reaction to Scientific Research via Twitter Sentiment Prediction
Shahzad, Murtuza, Alhoori, Hamed
Social media platforms have become a place where users collaborate, share their ideas and also have conflicts (Hansson et al., 2019; Hansson and Ludwig, 2019). With 126 million active daily users (Shaban, 2019), Twitter is the dominant microblogging platform on which users discuss a breadth of subjects and even play a role in influencing current trends. Users on Twitter post short and often informal messages (tweets) in which they share information and project opinions and sentiments about what is going on in the world. Twitter has been a major platform for sharing scholarly articles, and many researchers have used it to develop various metrics for scholarly articles (Haustein, 2019). Other social media platforms like Facebook and Weibo have also been sources to study online users' responses (Kou et al., 2017). Social media platforms have become a hub where users express their opinions and emotions related to multiple fields of interest (Chatterjee et al., 2019). Researchers have studied the sentiments and emotions associated with research articles on these platforms (Freeman et al., 2019, 2020).
Analyzing Wearables Dataset to Predict ADLs and Falls: A Pilot Study
Kaur, Rajbinder, Sharma, Rohini
Healthcare is an important aspect of human life. Use of technologies in healthcare has increased manifolds after the pandemic. Internet of Things based systems and devices proposed in literature can help elders, children and adults facing/experiencing health problems. This paper exhaustively reviews thirty-nine wearable based datasets which can be used for evaluating the system to recognize Activities of Daily Living and Falls. A comparative analysis on the SisFall dataset using five machine learning methods i.e., Logistic Regression, Linear Discriminant Analysis, K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree and Naive Bayes is performed in python. The dataset is modified in two ways, in first all the attributes present in dataset are used as it is and labelled in binary form. In second, magnitude of three axes(x,y,z) for three sensors value are computed and then used in experiment with label attribute. The experiments are performed on one subject, ten subjects and all the subjects and compared in terms of accuracy, precision and recall. The results obtained from this study proves that KNN outperforms other machine learning methods in terms of accuracy, precision and recall. It is also concluded that personalization of data improves accuracy.