Bayesian Learning
Targeted active learning for probabilistic models
Tosh, Christopher, Tec, Mauricio, Tansey, Wesley
A fundamental task in science is to design experiments that yield valuable insights about the system under study. Mathematically, these insights can be represented as a utility or risk function that shapes the value of conducting each experiment. We present PDBAL, a targeted active learning method that adaptively designs experiments to maximize scientific utility. PDBAL takes a user-specified risk function and combines it with a probabilistic model of the experimental outcomes to choose designs that rapidly converge on a high-utility model. We prove theoretical bounds on the label complexity of PDBAL and provide fast closed-form solutions for designing experiments with common exponential family likelihoods. In simulation studies, PDBAL consistently outperforms standard untargeted approaches that focus on maximizing expected information gain over the design space. Finally, we demonstrate the scientific potential of PDBAL through a study on a large cancer drug screen dataset where PDBAL quickly recovers the most efficacious drugs with a small fraction of the total number of experiments.
Trustworthy Human Computation: A Survey
Kashima, Hisashi, Oyama, Satoshi, Arai, Hiromi, Mori, Junichiro
Human computation is an approach to solving problems that prove difficult using AI only, and involves the cooperation of many humans. Because human computation requires close engagement with both "human populations as users" and "human populations as driving forces," establishing mutual trust between AI and humans is an important issue to further the development of human computation. This survey lays the groundwork for the realization of trustworthy human computation. First, the trustworthiness of human computation as computing systems, that is, trust offered by humans to AI, is examined using the RAS (Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability) analogy, which define measures of trustworthiness in conventional computer systems. Next, the social trustworthiness provided by human computation systems to users or participants is discussed from the perspective of AI ethics, including fairness, privacy, and transparency. Then, we consider human--AI collaboration based on two-way trust, in which humans and AI build mutual trust and accomplish difficult tasks through reciprocal collaboration. Finally, future challenges and research directions for realizing trustworthy human computation are discussed.
Interventions, Where and How? Experimental Design for Causal Models at Scale
Tigas, Panagiotis, Annadani, Yashas, Jesson, Andrew, Schรถlkopf, Bernhard, Gal, Yarin, Bauer, Stefan
Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments (interventions) based on the uncertainty arising from both factors can expedite the identification of the SCM. Existing methods in experimental design for causal discovery from limited data either rely on linear assumptions for the SCM or select only the intervention target. This work incorporates recent advances in Bayesian causal discovery into the Bayesian optimal experimental design framework, allowing for active causal discovery of large, nonlinear SCMs while selecting both the interventional target and the value. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on synthetic graphs (Erdos-R\`enyi, Scale Free) for both linear and nonlinear SCMs as well as on the \emph{in-silico} single-cell gene regulatory network dataset, DREAM.
A Survey of Machine Unlearning
Nguyen, Thanh Tam, Huynh, Thanh Trung, Nguyen, Phi Le, Liew, Alan Wee-Chung, Yin, Hongzhi, Nguyen, Quoc Viet Hung
Today, computer systems hold large amounts of personal data. Yet while such an abundance of data allows breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, and especially machine learning (ML), its existence can be a threat to user privacy, and it can weaken the bonds of trust between humans and AI. Recent regulations now require that, on request, private information about a user must be removed from both computer systems and from ML models, i.e. ``the right to be forgotten''). While removing data from back-end databases should be straightforward, it is not sufficient in the AI context as ML models often `remember' the old data. Contemporary adversarial attacks on trained models have proven that we can learn whether an instance or an attribute belonged to the training data. This phenomenon calls for a new paradigm, namely machine unlearning, to make ML models forget about particular data. It turns out that recent works on machine unlearning have not been able to completely solve the problem due to the lack of common frameworks and resources. Therefore, this paper aspires to present a comprehensive examination of machine unlearning's concepts, scenarios, methods, and applications. Specifically, as a category collection of cutting-edge studies, the intention behind this article is to serve as a comprehensive resource for researchers and practitioners seeking an introduction to machine unlearning and its formulations, design criteria, removal requests, algorithms, and applications. In addition, we aim to highlight the key findings, current trends, and new research areas that have not yet featured the use of machine unlearning but could benefit greatly from it. We hope this survey serves as a valuable resource for ML researchers and those seeking to innovate privacy technologies. Our resources are publicly available at https://github.com/tamlhp/awesome-machine-unlearning.
Cox-Hawkes: doubly stochastic spatiotemporal Poisson processes
Miscouridou, Xenia, Bhatt, Samir, Mohler, George, Flaxman, Seth, Mishra, Swapnil
Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that can model self or mutual excitation between events, in which the occurrence of one event triggers additional events, for example: a violent event in one geographical area on a given day encourages another violent event in an area nearby the next day. A unique feature of Hawkes processes is their ability to model exogenous and endogenous "causes" of events. An exogenous cause happens by the external addition of a event, while endogenous events are self-excited from previous events by a triggering kernel. An example of the difference between these two mechanisms is in disease transmission - an exogenous event could be a zoonosis event such as the transmission of Influenza from birds, while endogenous events are subsequent human to human transmission. Due to their flexibility and mathematical tractability, Hawkes processes have been extensively used in the literature in a series of applications. They have modelled among others, neural activity (Linderman et al. 2014), earthquakes (Ogata 1988), violence (Loeffler & Flaxman 2018, Holbrook et al. 2021) and social interactions (Miscouridou et al. 2018). The majority of applied research on Hawkes processes focuses on the purely temporal settings where events occur and are subsequently triggered only in time. However, many practical problems require the inclusion of a spatial dimension. This inclusion is motivated by several factors, first, natural phenomena that self-excite tend to do so both spatial and temporally e.g.
Machine Learning based Discrimination for Excited State Promoted Readout
A limiting factor for readout fidelity for superconducting qubits is the relaxation of the qubit to the ground state before the time needed for the resonator to reach its final target state. A technique known as excited state promoted (ESP) readout was proposed to reduce this effect and further improve the readout contrast on superconducting hardware. In this work, we use readout data from IBM's five-qubit quantum systems to measure the effectiveness of using deep neural networks, like feedforward neural networks, and various classification algorithms, like k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, and Gaussian naive Bayes, for single-qubit and multi-qubit discrimination. These methods were compared to standardly used linear and quadratic discriminant analysis algorithms based on their qubit-state-assignment fidelity performance, robustness to readout crosstalk, and training time.
On Representations of Mean-Field Variational Inference
Ghosh, Soumyadip, Lu, Yingdong, Nowicki, Tomasz, Zhang, Edith
The mean field variational inference (MFVI) formulation restricts the general Bayesian inference problem to the subspace of product measures. We present a framework to analyse MFVI algorithms, which is inspired by a similar development for general variational Bayesian formulations. Our approach enables the MFVI problem to be represented in three different manners: a gradient flow on Wasserstein space, a system of Fokker-Planck-like equations and a diffusion process. Rigorous guarantees are established to show that a time-discretized implementation of the coordinate ascent variational inference algorithm in the product Wasserstein space of measures yields a gradient flow in the limit. A similar result is obtained for their associated densities, with the limit being given by a quasi-linear partial differential equation. A popular class of practical algorithms falls in this framework, which provides tools to establish convergence. We hope this framework could be used to guarantee convergence of algorithms in a variety of approaches, old and new, to solve variational inference problems.
Improving aircraft performance using machine learning: a review
Clainche, Soledad Le, Ferrer, Esteban, Gibson, Sam, Cross, Elisabeth, Parente, Alessandro, Vinuesa, Ricardo
Climate change and increasing resource scarcity are challenges that Europe needs to face in the coming decades. All this has a direct impact on air transport, which is struggling to maintain its performance and competitiveness while ensuring a development focused on sustainable mobility. Research and innovation are essential to maintain the capabilities of the aviation industry, driven by the rise of new markets and new competitors as a result of globalization. A new longterm vision for the aeronautics sector is essential to ensure its successful advancement. In this line, new requirements for the future aviation industry have been defined by the ACARE Flightpath 2050, a Group of Recognized Personalities in the aeronautic sector, including stakeholders from the aeronautics industry, air traffic management, airports, airlines, energy providers and the research community. Aeronautics and air transport comprises both: air vehicle and system technology.
Understanding Non-linearity in Graph Neural Networks from the Bayesian-Inference Perspective
Wei, Rongzhe, Yin, Haoteng, Jia, Junteng, Benson, Austin R., Li, Pan
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown superiority in many prediction tasks over graphs due to their impressive capability of capturing nonlinear relations in graph-structured data. However, for node classification tasks, often, only marginal improvement of GNNs over their linear counterparts has been observed. Previous works provide very few understandings of this phenomenon. In this work, we resort to Bayesian learning to deeply investigate the functions of non-linearity in GNNs for node classification tasks. Given a graph generated from the statistical model CSBM, we observe that the max-a-posterior estimation of a node label given its own and neighbors' attributes consists of two types of non-linearity, a possibly non-linear transformation of node attributes and a ReLU-activated feature aggregation from neighbors. The latter surprisingly matches the type of non-linearity used in many GNN models. By further imposing Gaussian assumption on node attributes, we prove that the superiority of those ReLU activations is only significant when the node attributes are far more informative than the graph structure, which nicely matches many previous empirical observations. A similar argument can be achieved when there is a distribution shift of node attributes between the training and testing datasets. Finally, we verify our theory on both synthetic and real-world networks.
Model-based Lifelong Reinforcement Learning with Bayesian Exploration
Fu, Haotian, Yu, Shangqun, Littman, Michael, Konidaris, George
We propose a model-based lifelong reinforcement-learning approach that estimates a hierarchical Bayesian posterior distilling the common structure shared across different tasks. The learned posterior combined with a sample-based Bayesian exploration procedure increases the sample efficiency of learning across a family of related tasks. We first derive an analysis of the relationship between the sample complexity and the initialization quality of the posterior in the finite MDP setting. We next scale the approach to continuous-state domains by introducing a Variational Bayesian Lifelong Reinforcement Learning algorithm that can be combined with recent model-based deep RL methods, and that exhibits backward transfer. Experimental results on several challenging domains show that our algorithms achieve both better forward and backward transfer performance than state-of-the-art lifelong RL methods.