Bayesian methods of sampling from a posterior distribution are becoming increasingly popular due to their ability to precisely display the uncertainty of a model fit. Classical methods based on iterative random sampling and posterior evaluation such as Metropolis-Hastings are known to have desirable long run mixing properties, however are slow to converge. Gradient based methods, such as Langevin Dynamics (and its stochastic gradient counterpart) exhibit favorable dimension-dependence and fast mixing times for log-concave, and "close" to log-concave distributions, however also have long escape times from local minimizers. Many contemporary applications such as Bayesian Neural Networks are both high-dimensional and highly multimodal. In this paper we investigate the performance of a hybrid Metropolis and Langevin sampling method akin to Jump Diffusion on a range of synthetic and real data, indicating that careful calibration of mixing sampling jumps with gradient based chains significantly outperforms both pure gradient-based or sampling based schemes.

There has been intensive research regarding machine learning models for predicting bankruptcy in recent years. However, the lack of interpretability limits their growth and practical implementation. This study proposes a data-driven explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) system for bankruptcy prediction. Empirical results from a comparative study show that the proposed approach performs superior to existing, alternative CBR systems and is competitive with state-of-the-art machine learning models. We also demonstrate that the asymmetrical feature similarity comparison mechanism in the proposed CBR system can effectively capture the asymmetrically distributed nature of financial attributes, such as a few companies controlling more cash than the majority, hence improving both the accuracy and explainability of predictions. In addition, we delicately examine the explainability of the CBR system in the decision-making process of bankruptcy prediction. While much research suggests a trade-off between improving prediction accuracy and explainability, our findings show a prospective research avenue in which an explainable model that thoroughly incorporates data attributes by design can reconcile the dilemma.

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or other quantities associated to it. Building on the framework of Bayesian conditional mean embeddings, we propose a Bayesian approach for modeling the counterfactual distribution, which leads to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty about the distribution. The framework naturally extends to the setting where one observes multiple treatment effects (e.g. an intermediate effect after an interim period, and an ultimate treatment effect which is of main interest) and allows for additionally modelling uncertainty about the relationship of these effects. For such goal, we present three novel Bayesian methods to estimate the expectation of the ultimate treatment effect, when only noisy samples of the dependence between intermediate and ultimate effects are provided. These methods differ on the source of uncertainty considered and allow for combining two sources of data. Moreover, we generalize these ideas to the off-policy evaluation framework, which can be seen as an extension of the counterfactual estimation problem. We empirically explore the calibration of the algorithms in two different experimental settings which require data fusion, and illustrate the value of considering the uncertainty stemming from the two sources of data.

The scale ambiguity problem is inherently unsolvable to monocular SLAM without the metric baseline between moving cameras. In this paper, we present a novel scale estimation approach based on an object-level SLAM system. To obtain the absolute scale of the reconstructed map, we derive a nonlinear optimization method to make the scaled dimensions of objects conforming to the distribution of their sizes in the physical world, without relying on any prior information of gravity direction. We adopt the dual quadric to represent objects for its ability to fit objects compactly and accurately. In the proposed monocular object-level SLAM system, dual quadrics are fastly initialized based on constraints of 2-D detections and fitted oriented bounding box and are further optimized to provide reliable dimensions for scale estimation.

Among the main features of biological intelligence are energy efficiency, capacity for continual adaptation, and risk management via uncertainty quantification. Neuromorphic engineering has been thus far mostly driven by the goal of implementing energy-efficient machines that take inspiration from the time-based computing paradigm of biological brains. In this paper, we take steps towards the design of neuromorphic systems that are capable of adaptation to changing learning tasks, while producing well-calibrated uncertainty quantification estimates. To this end, we derive online learning rules for spiking neural networks (SNNs) within a Bayesian continual learning framework. In it, each synaptic weight is represented by parameters that quantify the current epistemic uncertainty resulting from prior knowledge and observed data. The proposed online rules update the distribution parameters in a streaming fashion as data are observed. We instantiate the proposed approach for both real-valued and binary synaptic weights. Experimental results using Intel's Lava platform show the merits of Bayesian over frequentist learning in terms of capacity for adaptation and uncertainty quantification.

Intense debate in the Neurology community before 2010 culminated in hypothetical models of Alzheimer's disease progression: a pathophysiological cascade of biomarkers, each dynamic for only a segment of the full disease timeline. Inspired by this, data-driven disease progression modelling emerged from the computer science community with the aim to reconstruct neurodegenerative disease timelines using data from large cohorts of patients, healthy controls, and prodromal/at-risk individuals. This chapter describes selected highlights from the field, with a focus on utility for understanding and forecasting of disease progression.

Author names often suffer from ambiguity owing to the same author appearing under different names and multiple authors possessing similar names. It creates difficulty in associating a scholarly work with the person who wrote it, thereby introducing inaccuracy in credit attribution, bibliometric analysis, search-by-author in a digital library, and expert discovery. A plethora of techniques for disambiguation of author names have been proposed in the literature. I try to focus on the research efforts targeted to disambiguate author names. I first go through the conventional methods, then I discuss evaluation techniques and the clustering model which finally leads to the Bayesian learning and Greedy agglomerative approach. I believe this concentrated review will be useful for the research community because it discusses techniques applied to a very large real database that is actively used worldwide. The Bayesian and the greedy agglomerative approach used will help to tackle AND problems in a better way. Finally, I try to outline a few directions for future work.

Deep Neural Networks are being extensively used in communication systems and Automatic Modulation Classification (AMC) in particular. However, they are very susceptible to small adversarial perturbations that are carefully crafted to change the network decision. In this work, we build on knowledge distillation ideas and adversarial training in order to build more robust AMC systems. We first outline the importance of the quality of the training data in terms of accuracy and robustness of the model. We then propose to use the Maximum Likelihood function, which could solve the AMC problem in offline settings, to generate better training labels. Those labels teach the model to be uncertain in challenging conditions, which permits to increase the accuracy, as well as the robustness of the model when combined with adversarial training. Interestingly, we observe that this increase in performance transfers to online settings, where the Maximum Likelihood function cannot be used in practice. Overall, this work highlights the potential of learning to be uncertain in difficult scenarios, compared to directly removing label noise.

Interactive Imitation Learning (IIL) is a branch of Imitation Learning (IL) where human feedback is provided intermittently during robot execution allowing an online improvement of the robot's behavior. In recent years, IIL has increasingly started to carve out its own space as a promising data-driven alternative for solving complex robotic tasks. The advantages of IIL are its data-efficient, as the human feedback guides the robot directly towards an improved behavior, and its robustness, as the distribution mismatch between the teacher and learner trajectories is minimized by providing feedback directly over the learner's trajectories. Nevertheless, despite the opportunities that IIL presents, its terminology, structure, and applicability are not clear nor unified in the literature, slowing down its development and, therefore, the research of innovative formulations and discoveries. In this article, we attempt to facilitate research in IIL and lower entry barriers for new practitioners by providing a survey of the field that unifies and structures it. In addition, we aim to raise awareness of its potential, what has been accomplished and what are still open research questions. We organize the most relevant works in IIL in terms of human-robot interaction (i.e., types of feedback), interfaces (i.e., means of providing feedback), learning (i.e., models learned from feedback and function approximators), user experience (i.e., human perception about the learning process), applications, and benchmarks. Furthermore, we analyze similarities and differences between IIL and RL, providing a discussion on how the concepts offline, online, off-policy and on-policy learning should be transferred to IIL from the RL literature. We particularly focus on robotic applications in the real world and discuss their implications, limitations, and promising future areas of research.

This paper focuses on Bayesian inference in a federated learning context (FL). While several distributed MCMC algorithms have been proposed, few consider the specific limitations of FL such as communication bottlenecks and statistical heterogeneity. Recently, Federated Averaging Langevin Dynamics (FALD) was introduced, which extends the Federated Averaging algorithm to Bayesian inference. We obtain a novel tight non-asymptotic upper bound on the Wasserstein distance to the global posterior for FALD. This bound highlights the effects of statistical heterogeneity, which causes a drift in the local updates that negatively impacts convergence. We propose a new algorithm VR-FALD* that uses control variates to correct the client drift. We establish non-asymptotic bounds showing that VR-FALD* is not affected by statistical heterogeneity. Finally, we illustrate our results on several FL benchmarks for Bayesian inference.