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 Bayesian Learning


Dynamic neuronal networks efficiently achieve classification in robotic interactions with real-world objects

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Here we aimed to use biologically relevant neuron models connected in a brain-like network structure to study its potential to achieve input separation in a robotic system interacting with real-world objects. The model network was inspired by local cortical networks in its recursive structure in principle, though with much fewer neurons and without the ambition to precisely mimick any assumed specific network structure. The aim was to explore if the inherent dynamic properties in such networks in themselves were enough to achieve efficient object classification. Our model system is reminiscent of Reservoir Computing networks (i.e. Gauthier et al 2020 Nature Communications), but our neurons have state memory, i.e. dynamics, which are biologically relevant. Moreover, the population of neurons are split into excitatory and inhibitory neurons. Combined with the neuronal output thresholding, i.e. imparting nonlinearity to the networks when inhibition drives the neurons below their thresholds, and combined with biologically relevant conduction delays, this setting creates extraordinarily rich network dynamics. Motivation for: what would be required in the robotics design to explore the questions we set out to explore? How well could we live up to those requirements with the robotics system used?



A hybrid data driven-physics constrained Gaussian process regression framework with deep kernel for uncertainty quantification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many practical fields like engineering, finance and physics, we need to explore the effects of uncertainties borne by input or parameters, which is the task of the uncertainty quantification (UQ). In a specific UQ problem, if the system is represented as stochastic partial differential equations, then stochastic Galerkin methods like generalised polynomial chaos (gPC) [29] can be used to obtain statistics of the distribution of the unknown solution. As long as a numerical or analytical solver for the system is available, the renowned Monte Carlo (MC) method [8] can be applied to obtain a distribution of the quantities of interest. However, that is usually prohibitively expensive due to the slow convergence of the Monte Carlo method, despite the fact that the running of the computer code for solving some complicated systems one single time might take days. Thus, to some extent we may be willing to compromise accuracy to reduce running time through formulating a cheap surrogate [2].


Fuzziness, Indeterminacy and Soft Sets: Frontiers and Perspectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The present paper comes across the main steps that laid from Zadeh's fuzziness ana Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy sets to Smarandache's indeterminacy and to Molodstov's soft sets. Two hybrid methods for assessment and decision making respectively under fuzzy conditions are also presented through suitable examples that use soft sets and real intervals as tools. The decision making method improves an earlier method of Maji et al. Further, it is described how the concept of topological space, the most general category of mathematical spaces, can be extended to fuzzy structures and how to generalize the fundamental mathematical concepts of limit, continuity compactness and Hausdorff space within such kind of structures. In particular, fuzzy and soft topological spaces are defined and examples are given to illustrate these generalizations.


When Less is More: On the Value of "Co-training" for Semi-Supervised Software Defect Predictors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Labeling a module defective or non-defective is an expensive task. Hence, there are often limits on how much-labeled data is available for training. Semi-supervised classifiers use far fewer labels for training models, but there are numerous semi-supervised methods, including self-labeling, co-training, maximal-margin, and graph-based methods, to name a few. Only a handful of these methods have been tested in SE for (e.g.) predicting defects and even that, those tests have been on just a handful of projects. This paper takes a wide range of 55 semi-supervised learners and applies these to over 714 projects. We find that semi-supervised "co-training methods" work significantly better than other approaches. However, co-training needs to be used with caution since the specific choice of co-training methods needs to be carefully selected based on a user's specific goals. Also, we warn that a commonly-used co-training method ("multi-view"-- where different learners get different sets of columns) does not improve predictions (while adding too much to the run time costs 11 hours vs. 1.8 hours). Those cautions stated, we find using these "co-trainers," we can label just 2.5% of data, then make predictions that are competitive to those using 100% of the data. It is an open question worthy of future work to test if these reductions can be seen in other areas of software analytics. All the codes used and datasets analyzed during the current study are available in the https://GitHub.com/Suvodeep90/Semi_Supervised_Methods.


Truncated proposals for scalable and hassle-free simulation-based inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Simulation-based inference (SBI) solves statistical inverse problems by repeatedly running a stochastic simulator and inferring posterior distributions from model-simulations. To improve simulation efficiency, several inference methods take a sequential approach and iteratively adapt the proposal distributions from which model simulations are generated. However, many of these sequential methods are difficult to use in practice, both because the resulting optimisation problems can be challenging and efficient diagnostic tools are lacking. To overcome these issues, we present Truncated Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (TSNPE). TSNPE performs sequential inference with truncated proposals, sidestepping the optimisation issues of alternative approaches. In addition, TSNPE allows to efficiently perform coverage tests that can scale to complex models with many parameters. We demonstrate that TSNPE performs on par with previous methods on established benchmark tasks. We then apply TSNPE to two challenging problems from neuroscience and show that TSNPE can successfully obtain the posterior distributions, whereas previous methods fail. Overall, our results demonstrate that TSNPE is an efficient, accurate, and robust inference method that can scale to challenging scientific models.


Applications of Naive Bayes part1(Artificial Intelligence)

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Abstract: In many classification models, data is discretized to better estimate its distribution. Existing discretization methods often target at maximizing the discriminant power of discretized data, while overlooking the fact that the primary target of data discretization in classification is to improve the generalization performance. As a result, the data tend to be over-split into many small bins since the data without discretization retain the maximal discriminant information. Thus, we propose a Max-Dependency-Min-Divergence (MDmD) criterion that maximizes both the discriminant information and generalization ability of the discretized data. More specifically, the Max-Dependency criterion maximizes the statistical dependency between the discretized data and the classification variable while the Min-Divergence criterion explicitly minimizes the JS-divergence between the training data and the validation data for a given discretization scheme.


Applications of Naive Bayes part2(Artificial Intelligence)

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Abstract: The spread of hatred that was formerly limited to verbal communications has rapidly moved over the Internet. Social media and community forums that allow people to discuss and express their opinions are becoming platforms for the spreading of hate messages. Many countries have developed laws to avoid online hate speech. They hold the companies that run the social media responsible for their failure to eliminate hate speech. But as online content continues to grow, so does the spread of hate speech However, manual analysis of hate speech on online platforms is infeasible due to the huge amount of data as it is expensive and time consuming.


Quantifying Complexity: An Object-Relations Approach to Complex Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The best way to model, understand, and quantify the information contained in complex systems is an open question in physics, mathematics, and computer science. The uncertain relationship between entropy and complexity further complicates this question. With ideas drawn from the object-relations theory of psychology, this paper develops an object-relations model of complex systems which generalizes to systems of all types, including mathematical operations, machines, biological organisms, and social structures. The resulting Complex Information Entropy (CIE) equation is a robust method to quantify complexity across various contexts. The paper also describes algorithms to iteratively update and improve approximate solutions to the CIE equation, to recursively infer the composition of complex systems, and to discover the connections among objects across different lengthscales and timescales. Applications are discussed in the fields of engineering design, atomic and molecular physics, chemistry, materials science, neuroscience, psychology, sociology, ecology, economics, and medicine.


Application-Driven Learning: A Closed-Loop Prediction and Optimization Approach Applied to Dynamic Reserves and Demand Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Forecasting and decision-making are generally modeled as two sequential steps with no feedback, following an open-loop approach. In this paper, we present application-driven learning, a new closed-loop framework in which the processes of forecasting and decision-making are merged and co-optimized through a bilevel optimization problem. We present our methodology in a general format and prove that the solution converges to the best estimator in terms of the expected cost of the selected application. Then, we propose two solution methods: an exact method based on the KKT conditions of the second-level problem and a scalable heuristic approach suitable for decomposition methods. The proposed methodology is applied to the relevant problem of defining dynamic reserve requirements and conditional load forecasts, offering an alternative approach to current \emph{ad hoc} procedures implemented in industry practices. We benchmark our methodology with the standard sequential least-squares forecast and dispatch planning process. We apply the proposed methodology to an illustrative system and to a wide range of instances, from dozens of buses to large-scale realistic systems with thousands of buses. Our results show that the proposed methodology is scalable and yields consistently better performance than the standard open-loop approach.