Due to the noises in crowdsourced labels, label aggregation (LA) has emerged as a standard procedure to post-process crowdsourced labels. LA methods estimate true labels from crowdsourced labels by modeling worker qualities. Most existing LA methods are iterative in nature. They need to traverse all the crowdsourced labels multiple times in order to jointly and iteratively update true labels and worker qualities until convergence. Consequently, these methods have high space and time complexities. In this paper, we treat LA as a dynamic system and model it as a Dynamic Bayesian network. From the dynamic model we derive two light-weight algorithms, LA\textsuperscript{onepass} and LA\textsuperscript{twopass}, which can effectively and efficiently estimate worker qualities and true labels by traversing all the labels at most twice. Due to the dynamic nature, the proposed algorithms can also estimate true labels online without re-visiting historical data. We theoretically prove the convergence property of the proposed algorithms, and bound the error of estimated worker qualities. We also analyze the space and time complexities of the proposed algorithms and show that they are equivalent to those of majority voting. Experiments conducted on 20 real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed algorithms can effectively and efficiently aggregate labels in both offline and online settings even if they traverse all the labels at most twice.

Parameter estimation in statistics and system identification relies on data that may contain sensitive information. To protect this sensitive information, the notion of \emph{differential privacy} (DP) has been proposed, which enforces confidentiality by introducing randomization in the estimates. Standard algorithms for differentially private estimation are based on adding an appropriate amount of noise to the output of a traditional point estimation method. This leads to an accuracy-privacy trade off, as adding more noise reduces the accuracy while increasing privacy. In this paper, we propose a new Unified Bayes Private Point (UBaPP) approach to Bayes point estimation of the unknown parameters of a data generating mechanism under a DP constraint, that achieves a better accuracy-privacy trade off than traditional approaches. We verify the performance of our approach on a simple numerical example.

Recent progress in autoencoder-based sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) under $\ell_1$ constraints allows joint discoveries of governing equations and latent coordinate systems from spatio-temporal data, including simulated video frames. However, it is challenging for $\ell_1$-based sparse inference to perform correct identification for real data due to the noisy measurements and often limited sample sizes. To address the data-driven discovery of physics in the low-data and high-noise regimes, we propose Bayesian SINDy autoencoders, which incorporate a hierarchical Bayesian sparsifying prior: Spike-and-slab Gaussian Lasso. Bayesian SINDy autoencoder enables the joint discovery of governing equations and coordinate systems with a theoretically guaranteed uncertainty estimate. To resolve the challenging computational tractability of the Bayesian hierarchical setting, we adapt an adaptive empirical Bayesian method with Stochatic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) which gives a computationally tractable way of Bayesian posterior sampling within our framework. Bayesian SINDy autoencoder achieves better physics discovery with lower data and fewer training epochs, along with valid uncertainty quantification suggested by the experimental studies. The Bayesian SINDy autoencoder can be applied to real video data, with accurate physics discovery which correctly identifies the governing equation and provides a close estimate for standard physics constants like gravity $g$, for example, in videos of a pendulum.

This paper presents a Prolog-based reasoning module to generate counterfactual explanations given the predictions computed by a black-box classifier. The proposed symbolic reasoning module can also resolve what-if queries using the ground-truth labels instead of the predicted ones. Overall, our approach comprises four well-defined stages that can be applied to any structured pattern classification problem. Firstly, we pre-process the given dataset by imputing missing values and normalizing the numerical features. Secondly, we transform numerical features into symbolic ones using fuzzy clustering such that extracted fuzzy clusters are mapped to an ordered set of predefined symbols. Thirdly, we encode instances as a Prolog rule using the nominal values, the predefined symbols, the decision classes, and the confidence values. Fourthly, we compute the overall confidence of each Prolog rule using fuzzy-rough set theory to handle the uncertainty caused by transforming numerical quantities into symbols. This step comes with an additional theoretical contribution to a new similarity function to compare the previously defined Prolog rules involving confidence values. Finally, we implement a chatbot as a proxy between human beings and the Prolog-based reasoning module to resolve natural language queries and generate counterfactual explanations. During the numerical simulations using synthetic datasets, we study the performance of our system when using different fuzzy operators and similarity functions. Towards the end, we illustrate how our reasoning module works using different use cases.

Probabilistic models for sequential data are the basis for a variety of applications concerned with processing timely ordered information. The predominant approach in this domain is given by recurrent neural networks, implementing either an approximate Bayesian approach (e.g. Variational Autoencoders or Generative Adversarial Networks) or a regression-based approach, i.e. variations of Mixture Density networks (MDN). In this paper, we focus on the $\mathcal{N}$-MDN variant, which parameterizes (mixtures of) probabilistic B\'ezier curves ($\mathcal{N}$-Curves) for modeling stochastic processes. While in favor in terms of computational cost and stability, MDNs generally fall behind approximate Bayesian approaches in terms of expressiveness. Towards this end, we present an approach for closing this gap by enabling full Bayesian inference on top of $\mathcal{N}$-MDNs. For this, we show that $\mathcal{N}$-Curves are a special case of Gaussian processes (denoted as $\mathcal{N}$-GP) and then derive corresponding mean and kernel functions for different modalities. Following this, we propose the use of the $\mathcal{N}$-MDN as a data-dependent generator for $\mathcal{N}$-GP prior distributions. We show the advantages granted by this combined model in an application context, using human trajectory prediction as an example.

Desirability can be understood as an extension of Anscombe and Aumann's Bayesian decision theory to sets of expected utilities. At the core of desirability lies an assumption of linearity of the scale in which rewards are measured. It is a traditional assumption used to derive the expected utility model, which clashes with a general representation of rational decision making, though. Allais has, in particular, pointed this out in 1953 with his famous paradox. We note that the utility scale plays the role of a closure operator when we regard desirability as a logical theory. This observation enables us to extend desirability to the nonlinear case by letting the utility scale be represented via a general closure operator. The new theory directly expresses rewards in actual nonlinear currency (money), much in Savage's spirit, while arguably weakening the founding assumptions to a minimum. We characterise the main properties of the new theory both from the perspective of sets of gambles and of their lower and upper prices (previsions). We show how Allais paradox finds a solution in the new theory, and discuss the role of sets of probabilities in the theory.

This article is a review of theoretical advances in the research field of algebraic geometry and Bayesian statistics in the last two decades. Many statistical models and learning machines which contain hierarchical structures or latent variables are called nonidentifiable, because the map from a parameter to a statistical model is not one-to-one. In nonidentifiable models, both the likelihood function and the posterior distribution have singularities in general, hence it was difficult to analyze their statistical properties. However, from the end of the 20th century, new theory and methodology based on algebraic geometry have been established which enables us to investigate such models and machines in the real world. In this article, the following results in recent advances are reported. First, we explain the framework of Bayesian statistics and introduce a new perspective from the birational geometry. Second, two mathematical solutions are derived based on algebraic geometry. An appropriate parameter space can be found by a resolution map, which makes the posterior distribution be normal crossing and the log likelihood ratio function be well-defined. Third, three applications to statistics are introduced. The posterior distribution is represented by the renormalized form, the asymptotic free energy is derived, and the universal formula among the generalization loss, the cross validation, and the information criterion is established. Two mathematical solutions and three applications to statistics based on algebraic geometry reported in this article are now being used in many practical fields in data science and artificial intelligence.

Through ML we can address SE problems that cannot be completely algorithmically modeled, or for which existing solutions do not provide satisfactory results yet (e.g., defect/fault detection [16, 165, 180]). In addition, ML finds application in SE tasks where data cannot be easily analyzed with other algorithms (e.g., software requirements, code comments, code reviews, issues [9, 91, 174]). Another important aspect of ML is that it can significantly reduce manual effort in common SE tasks (e.g., automatic program repair [157], code suggestion [61], defect prediction [19], malware detection [147], feature location [40]) with great accuracy results [146, 164]. In fields such as health informatics ML and SE are considered complementary disciplines, since the growing scale and complexity of healthcare datasets have posed a challenge for clinical practice and medical research, requiring new engineering approaches from both fields [38]. In the early nineties, Huff and Selfridge [68] recognized the need for creating software systems that partially take some responsibility for their own evolution, offering the ability to implement, measure, and assess changes easily. These changes should also contribute to the overall improvement of the corresponding systems [142].

Variational data assimilation and deep learning share many algorithmic aspects in common. While the former focuses on system state estimation, the latter provides great inductive biases to learn complex relationships. We here design a hybrid architecture learning the assimilation task directly from partial and noisy observations, using the mechanistic constraint of the 4DVAR algorithm. Finally, we show in an experiment that the proposed method was able to learn the desired inversion with interesting regularizing properties and that it also has computational interests.

Given an environment (e.g., a simulator) for evaluating samples in a specified design space and a set of weighted evaluation metrics -- one can use Theta-Resonance, a single-step Markov Decision Process (MDP), to train an intelligent agent producing progressively more optimal samples. In Theta-Resonance, a neural network consumes a constant input tensor and produces a policy as a set of conditional probability density functions (PDFs) for sampling each design dimension. We specialize existing policy gradient algorithms in deep reinforcement learning (D-RL) in order to use evaluation feedback (in terms of cost, penalty or reward) to update our policy network with robust algorithmic stability and minimal design evaluations. We study multiple neural architectures (for our policy network) within the context of a simple SoC design space and propose a method of constructing synthetic space exploration problems to compare and improve design space exploration (DSE) algorithms. Although we only present categorical design spaces, we also outline how to use Theta-Resonance in order to explore continuous and mixed continuous-discrete design spaces.