The paper covers the design and analysis of experiments to discriminate between two Gaussian process models, such as those widely used in computer experiments, kriging, sensor location and machine learning. Two frameworks are considered. First, we study sequential constructions, where successive design (observation) points are selected, either as additional points to an existing design or from the beginning of observation. The selection relies on the maximisation of the difference between the symmetric Kullback Leibler divergences for the two models, which depends on the observations, or on the mean squared error of both models, which does not. Then, we consider static criteria, such as the familiar log-likelihood ratios and the Fr\'echet distance between the covariance functions of the two models. Other distance-based criteria, simpler to compute than previous ones, are also introduced, for which, considering the framework of approximate design, a necessary condition for the optimality of a design measure is provided. The paper includes a study of the mathematical links between different criteria and numerical illustrations are provided.

Chain event graphs (CEGs) are a recent family of probabilistic graphical models that generalise the popular Bayesian networks (BNs) family. Crucially, unlike BNs, a CEG is able to embed, within its graph and its statistical model, asymmetries exhibited by a process. These asymmetries might be in the conditional independence relationships or in the structure of the graph and its underlying event space. Structural asymmetries are common in many domains, and can occur naturally (e.g. a defendant vs prosecutor's version of events) or by design (e.g. a public health intervention). However, there currently exists no software that allows a user to leverage the theoretical developments of the CEG model family in modelling processes with structural asymmetries. This paper introduces cegpy, the first Python package for learning and analysing complex processes using CEGs. The key feature of cegpy is that it is the first CEG package in any programming language that can model processes with symmetric as well as asymmetric structures. cegpy contains an implementation of Bayesian model selection and probability propagation algorithms for CEGs. We illustrate the functionality of cegpy using a structurally asymmetric dataset.

Normalizing flow (NF) has gained popularity over traditional maximum likelihood based methods due to its strong capability to model complex data distributions. However, the standard approach, which maps the observed data to a normal distribution, has difficulty in handling data distributions with multiple relatively isolated modes. To overcome this issue, we propose a new framework based on variational latent representation to improve the practical performance of NF. The idea is to replace the standard normal latent variable with a more general latent representation, jointly learned via Variational Bayes. For example, by taking the latent representation as a discrete sequence, our framework can learn a Transformer model that generates the latent sequence and an NF model that generates continuous data distribution conditioned on the sequence. The resulting method is significantly more powerful than the standard normalization flow approach for generating data distributions with multiple modes. Extensive experiments have shown the advantages of NF with variational latent representation.

Random forests (RFs) [Bre01] are machine learning models with various applications in areas like E-commerce, Finance and Medicine. They consist of multiple decision trees that use different subsets of the available features. Given an input, every tree makes an individual decision and the output of the random forest is obtained by a majority vote. They have low risk of overfitting; support both classification and regression tasks and come equipped with some feature importance measures [Bre01]. However, feature importance measures can be too simplistic as they can represent neither joint effects of features (e.g., multi-drug interactions) nor non-monotonicity (e.g., increasing the weight may be healthy for an underweight person, but not for an overweight person). In recent years, a variety of other explanation methods has been proposed. Modelagnostic feature importance measures like LIME [RSG16], SHAP [LL17] and MAPLE [PMT18] have similar limitations like the feature importance measures defined for random forests.

Graphical models are an important tool in exploring relationships between variables in complex, multivariate data. Methods for learning such graphical models are well developed in the case where all variables are either continuous or discrete, including in high-dimensions. However, in many applications data span variables of different types (e.g. continuous, count, binary, ordinal, etc.), whose principled joint analysis is nontrivial. Latent Gaussian copula models, in which all variables are modeled as transformations of underlying jointly Gaussian variables, represent a useful approach. Recent advances have shown how the binary-continuous case can be tackled, but the general mixed variable type regime remains challenging. In this work, we make the simple yet useful observation that classical ideas concerning polychoric and polyserial correlations can be leveraged in a latent Gaussian copula framework. Building on this observation we propose flexible and scalable methodology for data with variables of entirely general mixed type. We study the key properties of the approaches theoretically and empirically, via extensive simulations as well an illustrative application to data from the UK Biobank concerning COVID-19 risk factors.

Active learning theories and methods have been extensively studied in classical statistical learning settings. However, deep active learning, i.e., active learning with deep learning models, is usually based on empirical criteria without solid theoretical justification, thus suffering from heavy doubts when some of those fail to provide benefits in real applications. In this paper, by exploring the connection between the generalization performance and the training dynamics, we propose a theory-driven deep active learning method (dynamicAL) which selects samples to maximize training dynamics. In particular, we prove that the convergence speed of training and the generalization performance are positively correlated under the ultra-wide condition and show that maximizing the training dynamics leads to better generalization performance. Furthermore, to scale up to large deep neural networks and data sets, we introduce two relaxations for the subset selection problem and reduce the time complexity from polynomial to constant. Empirical results show that dynamicAL not only outperforms the other baselines consistently but also scales well on large deep learning models. We hope our work would inspire more attempts on bridging the theoretical findings of deep networks and practical impacts of deep active learning in real applications.

Linear regression is a simple machine learning model and chances are you are already aware of it! Do you remember plotting the line y mx c in your introductory algebra class? This is an equation of a straight line where m is its gradient and c is the point where the line crosses the y-axis. Using this equation, you're able to estimate the value of y for any given value of x. Similarly, linear regression involves estimating the relationship between independent variables (x) and a dependent variable(y).

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are the workhorse of Bayesian computation when closed formulas for estimators or probability distributions are not available. For this reason they have been central to the development and success of high-dimensional Bayesian statistics in the last decades, where one attempts to generate samples from some posterior distribution Π( |data) arising from a prior Π on D-dimensional Euclidean space and the observed data vector. MCMC methods tend to perform well in a large variety of problems, are very flexible and user-friendly, and enjoy many theoretical guarantees. Under mild assumptions, they are known to converge to their stationary'target' distributions as a consequence of the ergodic theorem, albeit perhaps at a slow speed, requiring a large number of iterations to provide numerically accurate algorithms. When the target distribution is log-concave, MCMC algorithms are known to mix rapidly, even in high dimensions.

Nowadays, machine learning models and applications have become increasingly pervasive. With this rapid increase in the development and employment of machine learning models, a concern regarding privacy has risen. Thus, there is a legitimate need to protect the data from leaking and from any attacks. One of the strongest and most prevalent privacy models that can be used to protect machine learning models from any attacks and vulnerabilities is differential privacy (DP). DP is strict and rigid definition of privacy, where it can guarantee that an adversary is not capable to reliably predict if a specific participant is included in the dataset or not. It works by injecting a noise to the data whether to the inputs, the outputs, the ground truth labels, the objective functions, or even to the gradients to alleviate the privacy issue and protect the data. To this end, this survey paper presents different differentially private machine learning algorithms categorized into two main categories (traditional machine learning models vs. deep learning models). Moreover, future research directions for differential privacy with machine learning algorithms are outlined.

Gaining the trust of customers and providing them empathy are very critical in the financial domain. Frequent occurrence of fraudulent activities affects these two factors. Hence, financial organizations and banks must take utmost care to mitigate them. Among them, ATM fraudulent transaction is a common problem faced by banks. There following are the critical challenges involved in fraud datasets: the dataset is highly imbalanced, the fraud pattern is changing, etc. Owing to the rarity of fraudulent activities, Fraud detection can be formulated as either a binary classification problem or One class classification (OCC). In this study, we handled these techniques on an ATM transactions dataset collected from India. In binary classification, we investigated the effectiveness of various over-sampling techniques, such as the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) and its variants, Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN), to achieve oversampling. Further, we employed various machine learning techniques viz., Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Tree (GBT), Multi-layer perceptron (MLP). GBT outperformed the rest of the models by achieving 0.963 AUC, and DT stands second with 0.958 AUC. DT is the winner if the complexity and interpretability aspects are considered. Among all the oversampling approaches, SMOTE and its variants were observed to perform better. In OCC, IForest attained 0.959 CR, and OCSVM secured second place with 0.947 CR. Further, we incorporated explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and causal inference (CI) in the fraud detection framework and studied it through various analyses.