Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" or "statistical" nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exemplified by the M4 competition and the conclusion drawn by the organizers. We argue that this distinction does not stem from fundamental differences in the methods assigned to either class. Instead, this distinction is probably of a tribal nature, which limits the insights into the appropriateness and effectiveness of different forecasting methods. We provide alternative characteristics of forecasting methods which, in our view, allow to draw meaningful conclusions. Further, we discuss areas of forecasting which could benefit most from cross-pollination between the ML and the statistics communities.

Label Shift has been widely believed to be harmful to the generalization performance of machine learning models. Researchers have proposed many approaches to mitigate the impact of the label shift, e.g., balancing the training data. However, these methods often consider the underparametrized regime, where the sample size is much larger than the data dimension. The research under the overparametrized regime is very limited. To bridge this gap, we propose a new asymptotic analysis of the Fisher Linear Discriminant classifier for binary classification with label shift. Specifically, we prove that there exists a phase transition phenomenon: Under certain overparametrized regime, the classifier trained using imbalanced data outperforms the counterpart with reduced balanced data. Moreover, we investigate the impact of regularization to the label shift: The aforementioned phase transition vanishes as the regularization becomes strong.

In this paper, a hyperparameter tuning based Bayesian optimization of digital twins is carried out to diagnose various faults in grid connected inverters. As fault detection and diagnosis require very high precision, we channelize our efforts towards an online optimization of the digital twins, which, in turn, allows a flexible implementation with limited amount of data. As a result, the proposed framework not only becomes a practical solution for model versioning and deployment of digital twins design with limited data, but also allows integration of deep learning tools to improve the hyperparameter tuning capabilities. For classification performance assessment, we consider different fault cases in virtual synchronous generator (VSG) controlled grid-forming converters and demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. Our research outcomes reveal the increased accuracy and fidelity levels achieved by our digital twin design, overcoming the shortcomings of traditional hyperparameter tuning methods.

From the perspective of machine learning and data science, probabilities and likelihoods are used to quantify uncertainty, or perhaps how probable it is that an observation belongs to one class or another. They crop up when looking at confusion matrices; and indeed, algorithms like Naive Bayes classification are pretty much probabilistic models. The reality is that data scientists cannot escape these concepts. In everyday language, though, we tend to use the terms probability and likelihood almost interchangeably. Indeed, it's not uncommon to hear things like'how likely is it to rain today?' or'what are the chances of this or that happening?'

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular paradigm for global optimization of expensive black-box functions, but there are many domains where the function is not completely a black-box. The data may have some known structure (e.g. symmetries) and/or the data generation process may be a composite process that yields useful intermediate or auxiliary information in addition to the value of the optimization objective. However, surrogate models traditionally employed in BO, such as Gaussian Processes (GPs), scale poorly with dataset size and do not easily accommodate known structure. Instead, we use Bayesian neural networks, a class of scalable and flexible surrogate models with inductive biases, to extend BO to complex, structured problems with high dimensionality. We demonstrate BO on a number of realistic problems in physics and chemistry, including topology optimization of photonic crystal materials using convolutional neural networks, and chemical property optimization of molecules using graph neural networks. On these complex tasks, we show that neural networks often outperform GPs as surrogate models for BO in terms of both sampling efficiency and computational cost.

Deep learning models that leverage large datasets are often the state of the art for modelling molecular properties. When the datasets are smaller (< 2000 molecules), it is not clear that deep learning approaches are the right modelling tool. In this work we perform an extensive study of the calibration and generalizability of probabilistic machine learning models on small chemical datasets. Using different molecular representations and models, we analyse the quality of their predictions and uncertainties in a variety of tasks (binary, regression) and datasets. We also introduce two simulated experiments that evaluate their performance: (1) Bayesian optimization guided molecular design, (2) inference on out-of-distribution data via ablated cluster splits. We offer practical insights into model and feature choice for modelling small chemical datasets, a common scenario in new chemical experiments. We have packaged our analysis into the DIONYSUS repository, which is open sourced to aid in reproducibility and extension to new datasets.

We develop a simple framework to learn bio-inspired foraging policies using human data. We conduct an experiment where humans are virtually immersed in an open field foraging environment and are trained to collect the highest amount of rewards. A Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework is introduced to model the human decision dynamics. Then, Imitation Learning (IL) based on maximum likelihood estimation is used to train Neural Networks (NN) that map human decisions to observed states. The results show that passive imitation substantially underperforms humans. We further refine the human-inspired policies via Reinforcement Learning (RL) using the on-policy Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm which shows better stability than other algorithms and can steadily improve the policies pretrained with IL. We show that the combination of IL and RL can match human results and that good performance strongly depends on combining the allocentric information with an egocentric representation of the environment.

To aid humans in everyday tasks, robots need to know which objects exist in the scene, where they are, and how to grasp and manipulate them in different situations. Therefore, object recognition and grasping are two key functionalities for autonomous robots. Most state-of-the-art approaches treat object recognition and grasping as two separate problems, even though both use visual input. Furthermore, the knowledge of the robot is fixed after the training phase. In such cases, if the robot encounters new object categories, it must be retrained to incorporate new information without catastrophic forgetting. In order to resolve this problem, we propose a deep learning architecture with an augmented memory capacity to handle open-ended object recognition and grasping simultaneously. In particular, our approach takes multi-views of an object as input and jointly estimates pixel-wise grasp configuration as well as a deep scale- and rotation-invariant representation as output. The obtained representation is then used for open-ended object recognition through a meta-active learning technique. We demonstrate the ability of our approach to grasp never-seen-before objects and to rapidly learn new object categories using very few examples on-site in both simulation and real-world settings. A video of these experiments is available online at: https://youtu.be/n9SMpuEkOgk

This work addresses the problem of sharing partial information within social learning strategies. In traditional social learning, agents solve a distributed multiple hypothesis testing problem by performing two operations at each instant: first, agents incorporate information from private observations to form their beliefs over a set of hypotheses; second, agents combine the entirety of their beliefs locally among neighbors. Within a sufficiently informative environment and as long as the connectivity of the network allows information to diffuse across agents, these algorithms enable agents to learn the true hypothesis. Instead of sharing the entirety of their beliefs, this work considers the case in which agents will only share their beliefs regarding one hypothesis of interest, with the purpose of evaluating its validity, and draws conditions under which this policy does not affect truth learning. We propose two approaches for sharing partial information, depending on whether agents behave in a self-aware manner or not. The results show how different learning regimes arise, depending on the approach employed and on the inherent characteristics of the inference problem. Furthermore, the analysis interestingly points to the possibility of deceiving the network, as long as the evaluated hypothesis of interest is close enough to the truth.

Time series anomaly detection has applications in a wide range of research fields and applications, including manufacturing and healthcare. The presence of anomalies can indicate novel or unexpected events, such as production faults, system defects, or heart fluttering, and is therefore of particular interest. The large size and complex patterns of time series have led researchers to develop specialised deep learning models for detecting anomalous patterns. This survey focuses on providing structured and comprehensive state-of-the-art time series anomaly detection models through the use of deep learning. It providing a taxonomy based on the factors that divide anomaly detection models into different categories. Aside from describing the basic anomaly detection technique for each category, the advantages and limitations are also discussed. Furthermore, this study includes examples of deep anomaly detection in time series across various application domains in recent years. It finally summarises open issues in research and challenges faced while adopting deep anomaly detection models.