Causal inference is the process of using assumptions, study designs, and estimation strategies to draw conclusions about the causal relationships between variables based on data. This allows researchers to better understand the underlying mechanisms at work in complex systems and make more informed decisions. In many settings, we may not fully observe all the confounders that affect both the treatment and outcome variables, complicating the estimation of causal effects. To address this problem, a growing literature in both causal inference and machine learning proposes to use Instrumental Variables (IV). This paper serves as the first effort to systematically and comprehensively introduce and discuss the IV methods and their applications in both causal inference and machine learning. First, we provide the formal definition of IVs and discuss the identification problem of IV regression methods under different assumptions. Second, we categorize the existing work on IV methods into three streams according to the focus on the proposed methods, including two-stage least squares with IVs, control function with IVs, and evaluation of IVs. For each stream, we present both the classical causal inference methods, and recent developments in the machine learning literature. Then, we introduce a variety of applications of IV methods in real-world scenarios and provide a summary of the available datasets and algorithms. Finally, we summarize the literature, discuss the open problems and suggest promising future research directions for IV methods and their applications. We also develop a toolkit of IVs methods reviewed in this survey at https://github.com/causal-machine-learning-lab/mliv.

We develop an optimization algorithm suitable for Bayesian learning in complex models. Our approach relies on natural gradient updates within a general black-box framework for efficient training with limited model-specific derivations. It applies within the class of exponential-family variational posterior distributions, for which we extensively discuss the Gaussian case for which the updates have a rather simple form. Our Quasi Black-box Variational Inference (QBVI) framework is readily applicable to a wide class of Bayesian inference problems and is of simple implementation as the updates of the variational posterior do not involve gradients with respect to the model parameters, nor the prescription of the Fisher information matrix. We develop QBVI under different hypotheses for the posterior covariance matrix, discuss details about its robust and feasible implementation, and provide a number of real-world applications to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Shannon information was defined for characterizing the uncertainty information of classical probabilistic distributions. As an uncertainty measure it is generally believed to be positive. This holds for any information quantity from two random variables because of the polymatroidal axioms. However, it is unknown why there is negative information for more than two random variables on finite dimensional spaces. We first show the negative tripartite Shannon mutual information implies specific Bayesian network representations of its joint distribution. We then show that the negative Shannon information is obtained from general tripartite Bayesian networks with quantum realizations. This provides a device-independent witness of negative Shannon information. We finally extend the result for general networks. The present result shows new insights in the network compatibility from non-Shannon information inequalities.

Causal discovery for quantitative data has been extensively studied but less is known for categorical data. We propose a novel causal model for categorical data based on a new classification model, termed classification with optimal label permutation (COLP). By design, COLP is a parsimonious classifier, which gives rise to a provably identifiable causal model. A simple learning algorithm via comparing likelihood functions of causal and anti-causal models suffices to learn the causal direction. Through experiments with synthetic and real data, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed COLP-based causal model compared to state-of-the-art methods. We also make available an accompanying R package COLP, which contains the proposed causal discovery algorithm and a benchmark dataset of categorical cause-effect pairs.

A machine learning (ML) system must learn not only to match the output of a target function on a training set, but also to generalize to novel situations in order to yield accurate predictions at deployment. In most practical applications, the user cannot exhaustively enumerate every possible input to the model; strong generalization performance is therefore crucial to the development of ML systems which are performant and reliable enough to be deployed in the real world. While generalization is well-understood theoretically in a number of hypothesis classes, the impressive generalization performance of deep neural networks has stymied theoreticians. In deep reinforcement learning (RL), our understanding of generalization is further complicated by the conflict between generalization and stability in widely-used RL algorithms. This thesis will provide insight into generalization by studying the learning dynamics of deep neural networks in both supervised and reinforcement learning tasks.

Abstract: A persistent challenge in conditional image synthesis has been to generate diverse output images from the same input image despite only one output image being observed per input image. GAN-based methods are prone to mode collapse, which leads to low diversity. To get around this, we leverage Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) which can overcome mode collapse fundamentally. IMLE uses the same generator as GANs but trains it with a different, non-adversarial objective which ensures each observed image has a generated sample nearby. Unfortunately, to generate high-fidelity images, prior IMLE-based methods require a large number of samples, which is expensive.

There is a vast amount of data generated every second due to the rapidly growing technology in the current world. This area of research attempts to determine the feelings or opinions of people on social media posts. The dataset we used was a multi-source dataset from the comment section of various social networking sites like Twitter, Reddit, etc. Natural Language Processing Techniques were employed to perform sentiment analysis on the obtained dataset. In this paper, we provide a comparative analysis using techniques of lexicon-based, machine learning and deep learning approaches. The Machine Learning algorithm used in this work is Naive Bayes, the Lexicon-based approach used in this work is TextBlob, and the deep-learning algorithm used in this work is LSTM. The rise of the internet has altered how people now express their ideas and thoughts.

The energy consumption of private households amounts to approximately 30% of the total global energy consumption, causing a large share of the CO2 emissions through energy production. An intelligent demand response via load shifting increases the energy efficiency of residential buildings by nudging residents to change their energy consumption behavior. This paper introduces an activity prediction-based framework for the utility-based context-aware multi-agent recommendation system that generates an activity shifting schedule for a 24-hour time horizon to either focus on CO2 emissions or energy cost savings. In particular, we design and implement an Activity Agent that uses hourly energy consumption data. It does not require further sensorial data or activity labels which reduces implementation costs and the need for extensive user input. Moreover, the system enhances the utility option of saving energy costs by saving CO2 emissions and provides the possibility to focus on both dimensions. The empirical results show that while setting the focus on CO2 emissions savings, the system provides an average of 12% of emissions savings and 7% of cost savings. When focusing on energy cost savings, 20% of energy costs and 6% of emissions savings are possible for the studied households in case of accepting all recommendations. Recommending an activity schedule, the system uses the same terms residents describe their domestic life. Therefore, recommendations can be more easily integrated into daily life supporting the acceptance of the system in a long-term perspective.

Inverse medium scattering solvers generally reconstruct a single solution without an associated measure of uncertainty. This is true both for the classical iterative solvers and for the emerging deep learning methods. But ill-posedness and noise can make this single estimate inaccurate or misleading. While deep networks such as conditional normalizing flows can be used to sample posteriors in inverse problems, they often yield low-quality samples and uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we propose U-Flow, a Bayesian U-Net based on conditional normalizing flows, which generates high-quality posterior samples and estimates physically-meaningful uncertainty. We show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the recent normalizing flows in terms of posterior sample quality while having comparable performance with the U-Net in point estimation.

Emerging applications such as Deep Learning are often data-driven, thus traditional approaches based on auto-tuners are not performance effective across the wide range of inputs used in practice. In the present paper, we start an investigation of predictive models based on machine learning techniques in order to optimize Convolution Neural Networks (CNNs). As a use-case, we focus on the ARM Compute Library which provides three different implementations of the convolution operator at different numeric precision. Starting from a collation of benchmarks, we build and validate models learned by Decision Tree and naive Bayesian classifier. Preliminary experiments on Midgard-based ARM Mali GPU show that our predictive model outperforms all the convolution operators manually selected by the library.