This invited review discusses causal learning in the context of robotic intelligence. The paper introduced the psychological findings on causal learning in human cognition, then it introduced the traditional statistical solutions on causal discovery and causal inference. The paper reviewed recent deep causal learning algorithms with a focus on their architectures and the benefits of using deep nets and discussed the gap between deep causal learning and the needs of robotic intelligence.

Research around AI for Science has seen significant success since the rise of deep learning models over the past decade, even with longstanding challenges such as protein structure prediction. However, this fast development inevitably made their flaws apparent -- especially in domains of reasoning where understanding the cause-effect relationship is important. One such domain is drug discovery, in which such understanding is required to make sense of data otherwise plagued by spurious correlations. Said spuriousness only becomes worse with the ongoing trend of ever-increasing amounts of data in the life sciences and thereby restricts researchers in their ability to understand disease biology and create better therapeutics. Therefore, to advance the science of drug discovery with AI it is becoming necessary to formulate the key problems in the language of causality, which allows the explication of modelling assumptions needed for identifying true cause-effect relationships. In this attention paper, we present causal drug discovery as the craft of creating models that ground the process of drug discovery in causal reasoning.

Conversational recommender systems (CRSs) often utilize external knowledge graphs (KGs) to introduce rich semantic information and recommend relevant items through natural language dialogues. However, original KGs employed in existing CRSs are often incomplete and sparse, which limits the reasoning capability in recommendation. Moreover, only few of existing studies exploit the dialogue context to dynamically refine knowledge from KGs for better recommendation. To address the above issues, we propose the Variational Reasoning over Incomplete KGs Conversational Recommender (VRICR). Our key idea is to incorporate the large dialogue corpus naturally accompanied with CRSs to enhance the incomplete KGs; and perform dynamic knowledge reasoning conditioned on the dialogue context. Specifically, we denote the dialogue-specific subgraphs of KGs as latent variables with categorical priors for adaptive knowledge graphs refactor. We propose a variational Bayesian method to approximate posterior distributions over dialogue-specific subgraphs, which not only leverages the dialogue corpus for restructuring missing entity relations but also dynamically selects knowledge based on the dialogue context. Finally, we infuse the dialogue-specific subgraphs to decode the recommendation and responses. We conduct experiments on two benchmark CRSs datasets. Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Dataset scaling, also known as normalization, is an essential preprocessing step in a machine learning pipeline. It is aimed at adjusting attributes scales in a way that they all vary within the same range. This transformation is known to improve the performance of classification models, but there are several scaling techniques to choose from, and this choice is not generally done carefully. In this paper, we execute a broad experiment comparing the impact of 5 scaling techniques on the performances of 20 classification algorithms among monolithic and ensemble models, applying them to 82 publicly available datasets with varying imbalance ratios. Results show that the choice of scaling technique matters for classification performance, and the performance difference between the best and the worst scaling technique is relevant and statistically significant in most cases. They also indicate that choosing an inadequate technique can be more detrimental to classification performance than not scaling the data at all. We also show how the performance variation of an ensemble model, considering different scaling techniques, tends to be dictated by that of its base model. Finally, we discuss the relationship between a model's sensitivity to the choice of scaling technique and its performance and provide insights into its applicability on different model deployment scenarios. Full results and source code for the experiments in this paper are available in a GitHub repository.\footnote{https://github.com/amorimlb/scaling\_matters}

Metanomic, a game economics and player analytics company, announced in September the launch of its player analytics platform Thunderstruck, using AI based on Bayesian inference and aiming to revolutionize game developers' use of behavioral data to improve retention and monetization. Metanomic is a software company founded in November 2021 by Theo Priestley, Bronwyn Williams and Evan Pappas. A comprehensive real-time economy-as-a-service platform for developers, it uses patented algorithms to easily deploy plug-and-play, interoperable and scalable game and creator economies ready for web3, metavers and play-and-earn games. The company has secured $2.9 million in pre-seed funding. On May 18, it announced the acquisition of Intoolab AI, a company specializing in Bayesian network-based artificial intelligence, to develop and improve data analysis in video games and on the Web3.

Conditional independence (CI) tests underlie many approaches to model testing and structure learning in causal inference. Most existing CI tests for categorical and ordinal data stratify the sample by the conditioning variables, perform simple independence tests in each stratum, and combine the results. Unfortunately, the statistical power of this approach degrades rapidly as the number of conditioning variables increases. Here we propose a simple unified CI test for ordinal and categorical data that maintains reasonable calibration and power in high dimensions. We show that our test outperforms existing baselines in model testing and structure learning for dense directed graphical models while being comparable for sparse models. Our approach could be attractive for causal model testing because it is easy to implement, can be used with non-parametric or parametric probability models, has the symmetry property, and has reasonable computational requirements.

We consider the problem of recovering the causal structure underlying observations from different experimental conditions when the targets of the interventions in each experiment are unknown. We assume a linear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise and consider interventions that perturb their targets while maintaining the causal relationships in the system. Different models may entail the same distributions, offering competing causal explanations for the given observations. We fully characterize this equivalence class and offer identifiability results, which we use to derive a greedy algorithm called GnIES to recover the equivalence class of the data-generating model without knowledge of the intervention targets. In addition, we develop a novel procedure to generate semi-synthetic data sets with known causal ground truth but distributions closely resembling those of a real data set of choice. We leverage this procedure and evaluate the performance of GnIES on synthetic, real, and semi-synthetic data sets. Despite the strong Gaussian distributional assumption, GnIES is robust to an array of model violations and competitive in recovering the causal structure in small- to large-sample settings. We provide, in the Python packages "gnies" and "sempler", implementations of GnIES and our semi-synthetic data generation procedure.

This thesis considers sequential decision problems, where the loss/reward incurred by selecting an action may not be inferred from observed feedback. A major part of this thesis focuses on the unsupervised sequential selection problem, where one can not infer the loss incurred for selecting an action from observed feedback. We also introduce a new setup named Censored Semi Bandits, where the loss incurred for selecting an action can be observed under certain conditions. Finally, we study the channel selection problem in the communication networks, where the reward for an action is only observed when no other player selects that action to play in the round. These problems find applications in many fields like healthcare, crowd-sourcing, security, adaptive resource allocation, among many others. This thesis aims to address the above-described sequential decision problems by exploiting specific structures these problems exhibit. We develop provably optimal algorithms for each of these setups with weak feedback and validate their empirical performance on different problem instances derived from synthetic and real datasets.

Deep generative models parametrized up to a normalizing constant (e.g. energy-based models) are difficult to train by maximizing the likelihood of the data because the likelihood and/or gradients thereof cannot be explicitly or efficiently written down. Score matching is a training method, whereby instead of fitting the likelihood $\log p(x)$ for the training data, we instead fit the score function $\nabla_x \log p(x)$ -- obviating the need to evaluate the partition function. Though this estimator is known to be consistent, its unclear whether (and when) its statistical efficiency is comparable to that of maximum likelihood -- which is known to be (asymptotically) optimal. We initiate this line of inquiry in this paper, and show a tight connection between statistical efficiency of score matching and the isoperimetric properties of the distribution being estimated -- i.e. the Poincar\'e, log-Sobolev and isoperimetric constant -- quantities which govern the mixing time of Markov processes like Langevin dynamics. Roughly, we show that the score matching estimator is statistically comparable to the maximum likelihood when the distribution has a small isoperimetric constant. Conversely, if the distribution has a large isoperimetric constant -- even for simple families of distributions like exponential families with rich enough sufficient statistics -- score matching will be substantially less efficient than maximum likelihood. We suitably formalize these results both in the finite sample regime, and in the asymptotic regime. Finally, we identify a direct parallel in the discrete setting, where we connect the statistical properties of pseudolikelihood estimation with approximate tensorization of entropy and the Glauber dynamics.

Multi-class ensemble classification remains a popular focus of investigation within the research community. The popularization of cloud services has sped up their adoption due to the ease of deploying large-scale machine-learning models. It has also drawn the attention of the industrial sector because of its ability to identify common problems in production. However, there are challenges to conform an ensemble classifier, namely a proper selection and effective training of the pool of classifiers, the definition of a proper architecture for multi-class classification, and uncertainty quantification of the ensemble classifier. The robustness and effectiveness of the ensemble classifier lie in the selection of the pool of classifiers, as well as in the learning process. Hence, the selection and the training procedure of the pool of classifiers play a crucial role. An (ensemble) classifier learns to detect the classes that were used during the supervised training. However, when injecting data with unknown conditions, the trained classifier will intend to predict the classes learned during the training. To this end, the uncertainty of the individual and ensemble classifier could be used to assess the learning capability. We present a novel approach for novel detection using ensemble classification and evidence theory. A pool selection strategy is presented to build a solid ensemble classifier. We present an architecture for multi-class ensemble classification and an approach to quantify the uncertainty of the individual classifiers and the ensemble classifier. We use uncertainty for the anomaly detection approach. Finally, we use the benchmark Tennessee Eastman to perform experiments to test the ensemble classifier's prediction and anomaly detection capabilities.