Recent advances in coreset methods have shown that a selection of representative datapoints can replace massive volumes of data for Bayesian inference, preserving the relevant statistical information and significantly accelerating subsequent downstream tasks. Existing variational coreset constructions rely on either selecting subsets of the observed datapoints, or jointly performing approximate inference and optimizing pseudodata in the observed space akin to inducing points methods in Gaussian Processes. So far, both approaches are limited by complexities in evaluating their objectives for general purpose models, and require generating samples from a typically intractable posterior over the coreset throughout inference and testing. In this work, we present a black-box variational inference framework for coresets that overcomes these constraints and enables principled application of variational coresets to intractable models, such as Bayesian neural networks. We apply our techniques to supervised learning problems, and compare them with existing approaches in the literature for data summarization and inference.

Creating autonomous robots that can actively explore the environment, acquire knowledge and learn skills continuously is the ultimate achievement envisioned in cognitive and developmental robotics. Their learning processes should be based on interactions with their physical and social world in the manner of human learning and cognitive development. Based on this context, in this paper, we focus on the two concepts of world models and predictive coding. Recently, world models have attracted renewed attention as a topic of considerable interest in artificial intelligence. Cognitive systems learn world models to better predict future sensory observations and optimize their policies, i.e., controllers. Alternatively, in neuroscience, predictive coding proposes that the brain continuously predicts its inputs and adapts to model its own dynamics and control behavior in its environment. Both ideas may be considered as underpinning the cognitive development of robots and humans capable of continual or lifelong learning. Although many studies have been conducted on predictive coding in cognitive robotics and neurorobotics, the relationship between world model-based approaches in AI and predictive coding in robotics has rarely been discussed. Therefore, in this paper, we clarify the definitions, relationships, and status of current research on these topics, as well as missing pieces of world models and predictive coding in conjunction with crucially related concepts such as the free-energy principle and active inference in the context of cognitive and developmental robotics. Furthermore, we outline the frontiers and challenges involved in world models and predictive coding toward the further integration of AI and robotics, as well as the creation of robots with real cognitive and developmental capabilities in the future.

The bias-variance trade-off is a well-known problem in machine learning that only gets more pronounced the less available data there is. In active learning, where labeled data is scarce or difficult to obtain, neglecting this trade-off can cause inefficient and non-optimal querying, leading to unnecessary data labeling. In this paper, we focus on active learning with Gaussian Processes (GPs). For the GP, the bias-variance trade-off is made by optimization of the two hyperparameters: the length scale and noise-term. Considering that the optimal mode of the joint posterior of the hyperparameters is equivalent to the optimal bias-variance trade-off, we approximate this joint posterior and utilize it to design two new acquisition functions. The first one is a Bayesian variant of Query-by-Committee (B-QBC), and the second is an extension that explicitly minimizes the predictive variance through a Query by Mixture of Gaussian Processes (QB-MGP) formulation. Across six simulators, we empirically show that B-QBC, on average, achieves the best marginal likelihood, whereas QB-MGP achieves the best predictive performance. We show that incorporating the bias-variance trade-off in the acquisition functions mitigates unnecessary and expensive data labeling.

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a versatile tool widely used in uncertainty quantification and machine learning, but its successful application depends strongly on the accuracy and reliability of the resulting PCE-based response surface. High accuracy typically requires high polynomial degrees, demanding many training points especially in high-dimensional problems through the curse of dimensionality. So-called sparse PCE concepts work with a much smaller selection of basis polynomials compared to conventional PCE approaches and can overcome the curse of dimensionality very efficiently, but have to pay specific attention to their strategies of choosing training points. Furthermore, the approximation error resembles an uncertainty that most existing PCE-based methods do not estimate. In this study, we develop and evaluate a fully Bayesian approach to establish the PCE representation via joint shrinkage priors and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The suggested Bayesian PCE model directly aims to solve the two challenges named above: achieving a sparse PCE representation and estimating uncertainty of the PCE itself. The embedded Bayesian regularizing via the joint shrinkage prior allows using higher polynomial degrees for given training points due to its ability to handle underdetermined situations, where the number of considered PCE coefficients could be much larger than the number of available training points. We also explore multiple variable selection methods to construct sparse PCE expansions based on the established Bayesian representations, while globally selecting the most meaningful orthonormal polynomials given the available training data. We demonstrate the advantages of our Bayesian PCE and the corresponding sparsity-inducing methods on several benchmarks.

An important feature of pervasive, intelligent assistance systems is the ability to dynamically adapt to the current needs of their users. Hence, it is critical for such systems to be able to recognize those goals and needs based on observations of the user's actions and state of the environment. In this work, we investigate the application of two state-of-the-art, planning-based plan recognition approaches in a real-world setting. So far, these approaches were only evaluated in artificial settings in combination with agents that act perfectly rational. We show that such approaches have difficulties when used to recognize the goals of human subjects, because human behaviour is typically not perfectly rational. To overcome this issue, we propose an extension to the existing approaches through a classification-based method trained on observed behaviour data. We empirically show that the proposed extension not only outperforms the purely planning-based- and purely data-driven goal recognition methods but is also able to recognize the correct goal more reliably, especially when only a small number of observations were seen. This substantially improves the usefulness of hybrid goal recognition approaches for intelligent assistance systems, as recognizing a goal early opens much more possibilities for supportive reactions of the system.

Bayesian methods, distributionally robust optimization methods, and regularization methods are three pillars of trustworthy machine learning hedging against distributional uncertainty, e.g., the uncertainty of an empirical distribution compared to the true underlying distribution. This paper investigates the connections among the three frameworks and, in particular, explores why these frameworks tend to have smaller generalization errors. Specifically, first, we suggest a quantitative definition for "distributional robustness", propose the concept of "robustness measure", and formalize several philosophical concepts in distributionally robust optimization. Second, we show that Bayesian methods are distributionally robust in the probably approximately correct (PAC) sense; In addition, by constructing a Dirichlet-process-like prior in Bayesian nonparametrics, it can be proven that any regularized empirical risk minimization method is equivalent to a Bayesian method. Third, we show that generalization errors of machine learning models can be characterized using the distributional uncertainty of the nominal distribution and the robustness measures of these machine learning models, which is a new perspective to bound generalization errors, and therefore, explain the reason why distributionally robust machine learning models, Bayesian models, and regularization models tend to have smaller generalization errors.

Variational inference has been widely used in machine learning literature to fit various Bayesian models. In network analysis, this method has been successfully applied to solve the community detection problems. Although these results are promising, their theoretical support is only for relatively dense networks, an assumption that may not hold for real networks. In addition, it has been shown recently that the variational loss surface has many saddle points, which may severely affect its performance, especially when applied to sparse networks. This paper proposes a simple way to improve the variational inference method by hard thresholding the posterior of the community assignment after each iteration. Using a random initialization that correlates with the true community assignment, we show that the proposed method converges and can accurately recover the true community labels, even when the average node degree of the network is bounded. Extensive numerical study further confirms the advantage of the proposed method over the classical variational inference and another state-of-the-art algorithm.

Likelihood-to-evidence ratio estimation is usually cast as either a binary (NRE-A) or a multiclass (NRE-B) classification task. In contrast to the binary classification framework, the current formulation of the multiclass version has an intrinsic and unknown bias term, making otherwise informative diagnostics unreliable. We propose a multiclass framework free from the bias inherent to NRE-B at optimum, leaving us in the position to run diagnostics that practitioners depend on. It also recovers NRE-A in one corner case and NRE-B in the limiting case. For fair comparison, we benchmark the behavior of all algorithms in both familiar and novel training regimes: when jointly drawn data is unlimited, when data is fixed but prior draws are unlimited, and in the commonplace fixed data and parameters setting. Our investigations reveal that the highest performing models are distant from the competitors (NRE-A, NRE-B) in hyperparameter space. We make a recommendation for hyperparameters distinct from the previous models. We suggest a bound on the mutual information as a performance metric for simulation-based inference methods, without the need for posterior samples, and provide experimental results.

Since data is the fuel that drives machine learning models, and access to labeled data is generally expensive, semi-supervised methods are constantly popular. They enable the acquisition of large datasets without the need for too many expert labels. This work combines self-labeling techniques with active learning in a selective sampling scenario. We propose a new method that builds an ensemble classifier. Based on an evaluation of the inconsistency of the decisions of the individual base classifiers for a given observation, a decision is made on whether to request a new label or use the self-labeling. In preliminary studies, we show that naive application of self-labeling can harm performance by introducing bias towards selected classes and consequently lead to skewed class distribution. Hence, we also propose mechanisms to reduce this phenomenon. Experimental evaluation shows that the proposed method matches current selective sampling methods or achieves better results.

Currently in the petroleum industry, operators often flare the produced gas instead of commodifying it. The flaring magnitudes are large in some states, which constitute problems with energy waste and CO2 emissions. In North Dakota, operators are required to estimate and report the volume flared. The questions are, how good is the quality of this reporting, and what insights can be drawn from it? Apart from the company-reported statistics, which are available from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC), flared volumes can be estimated via satellite remote sensing, serving as an unbiased benchmark. Since interpretation of the Landsat 8 imagery is hindered by artifacts due to glow, the estimated volumes based on the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) are used. Reverse geocoding is performed for comparing and contrasting the NDIC and VIIRS data at different levels, such as county and oilfield. With all the data gathered and preprocessed, Bayesian learning implemented by MCMC methods is performed to address three problems: county level model development, flaring time series analytics, and distribution estimation. First, there is heterogeneity among the different counties, in the associations between the NDIC and VIIRS volumes. In light of such, models are developed for each county by exploiting hierarchical models. Second, the flaring time series, albeit noisy, contains information regarding trends and patterns, which provide some insights into operator approaches. Gaussian processes are found to be effective in many different pattern recognition scenarios. Third, distributional insights are obtained through unsupervised learning. The negative binomial and GMMs are found to effectively describe the oilfield flare count and flared volume distributions, respectively. Finally, a nearest-neighbor-based approach for operator level monitoring and analytics is introduced.