Despite rapid advancements in lifelong learning (LLL) research, a large body of research mainly focuses on improving the performance in the existing \textit{static} continual learning (CL) setups. These methods lack the ability to succeed in a rapidly changing \textit{dynamic} environment, where an AI agent needs to quickly learn new instances in a `single pass' from the non-i.i.d (also possibly temporally contiguous/coherent) data streams without suffering from catastrophic forgetting. For practical applicability, we propose a novel lifelong learning approach, which is streaming, i.e., a single input sample arrives in each time step, single pass, class-incremental, and subject to be evaluated at any moment. To address this challenging setup and various evaluation protocols, we propose a Bayesian framework, that enables fast parameter update, given a single training example, and enables any-time inference. We additionally propose an implicit regularizer in the form of snap-shot self-distillation, which effectively minimizes the forgetting further. We further propose an effective method that efficiently selects a subset of samples for online memory rehearsal and employs a new replay buffer management scheme that significantly boosts the overall performance. Our empirical evaluations and ablations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the prior works by large margins.

Network intrusion detection systems (NIDSs) play an important role in computer network security. There are several detection mechanisms where anomaly-based automated detection outperforms others significantly. Amid the sophistication and growing number of attacks, dealing with large amounts of data is a recognized issue in the development of anomaly-based NIDS. However, do current models meet the needs of today's networks in terms of required accuracy and dependability? In this research, we propose a new hybrid model that combines machine learning and deep learning to increase detection rates while securing dependability. Our proposed method ensures efficient pre-processing by combining SMOTE for data balancing and XGBoost for feature selection. We compared our developed method to various machine learning and deep learning algorithms to find a more efficient algorithm to implement in the pipeline. Furthermore, we chose the most effective model for network intrusion based on a set of benchmarked performance analysis criteria. Our method produces excellent results when tested on two datasets, KDDCUP'99 and CIC-MalMem-2022, with an accuracy of 99.99% and 100% for KDDCUP'99 and CIC-MalMem-2022, respectively, and no overfitting or Type-1 and Type-2 issues.

Real-world data for classification is often labeled by multiple annotators. For analyzing such data, we introduce CROWDLAB, a straightforward approach to utilize any trained classifier to estimate: (1) A consensus label for each example that aggregates the available annotations; (2) A confidence score for how likely each consensus label is correct; (3) A rating for each annotator quantifying the overall correctness of their labels. Existing algorithms to estimate related quantities in crowdsourcing often rely on sophisticated generative models with iterative inference. CROWDLAB instead uses a straightforward weighted ensemble. Existing algorithms often rely solely on annotator statistics, ignoring the features of the examples from which the annotations derive. CROWDLAB utilizes any classifier model trained on these features, and can thus better generalize between examples with similar features. On real-world multi-annotator image data, our proposed method provides superior estimates for (1)-(3) than existing algorithms like Dawid-Skene/GLAD.

This article belongs to the series "Probabilistic Deep Learning". This weekly series covers probabilistic approaches to deep learning. The main goal is to extend deep learning models to quantify uncertainty, i.e., know what they do not know. In this article, we will introduce the concept of probabilistic logistic regression, a powerful technique that allows for the inclusion of uncertainty in the prediction process. We will explore how this approach can lead to more robust and accurate predictions, especially in cases where the data is noisy, or the model is overfitting.

Personalised federated learning (FL) aims at collaboratively learning a machine learning model taylored for each client. Albeit promising advances have been made in this direction, most of existing approaches works do not allow for uncertainty quantification which is crucial in many applications. In addition, personalisation in the cross-device setting still involves important issues, especially for new clients or those having small number of observations. This paper aims at filling these gaps. To this end, we propose a novel methodology coined FedPop by recasting personalised FL into the population modeling paradigm where clients' models involve fixed common population parameters and random effects, aiming at explaining data heterogeneity. To derive convergence guarantees for our scheme, we introduce a new class of federated stochastic optimisation algorithms which relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Compared to existing personalised FL methods, the proposed methodology has important benefits: it is robust to client drift, practical for inference on new clients, and above all, enables uncertainty quantification under mild computational and memory overheads. We provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for the proposed algorithms and illustrate their performances on various personalised federated learning tasks.

The advancement of distributed generation technologies in modern power systems has led to a widespread integration of renewable power generation at customer side. However, the intermittent nature of renewable energy poses new challenges to the network operational planning with underlying uncertainties. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian probabilistic technique for forecasting renewable solar generation by addressing data and model uncertainties by integrating bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural networks while compressing the weight parameters using variational autoencoder (VAE). Existing Bayesian deep learning methods suffer from high computational complexities as they require to draw a large number of samples from weight parameters expressed in the form of probability distributions. The proposed method can deal with uncertainty present in model and data in a more computationally efficient manner by reducing the dimensionality of model parameters. The proposed method is evaluated using quantile loss, reconstruction error, and deterministic forecasting evaluation metrics such as root-mean square error. It is inferred from the numerical results that VAE-Bayesian BiLSTM outperforms other probabilistic and deterministic deep learning methods for solar power forecasting in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency for different sizes of the dataset.

The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is widely used as an iterative modification to maximum likelihood estimation when the data is incomplete. We focus on a semi-supervised case to learn the model from labeled and unlabeled samples. Existing work in the semi-supervised case has focused mainly on performance rather than convergence guarantee, however we focus on the contribution of the labeled samples to the convergence rate. The analysis clearly demonstrates how the labeled samples improve the convergence rate for the exponential family mixture model. In this case, we assume that the population EM (EM with unlimited data) is initialized within the neighborhood of global convergence for the population EM that consists solely of samples that have not been labeled. The analysis for the labeled samples provides a comprehensive description of the convergence rate for the Gaussian mixture model. In addition, we extend the findings for labeled samples and offer an alternative proof for the population EM's convergence rate with unlabeled samples for the symmetric mixture of two Gaussians.

Uncertainty estimation of the trained deep learning networks is valuable for optimizing learning efficiency and evaluating the reliability of network predictions. In this paper, we propose a method for estimating uncertainty in deep learning image classification using test-time mixup augmentation (TTMA). To improve the ability to distinguish correct and incorrect predictions in existing aleatoric uncertainty, we introduce the TTMA data uncertainty (TTMA-DU) by applying mixup augmentation to test data and measuring the entropy of the predicted label histogram. In addition to TTMA-DU, we propose the TTMA class-dependent uncertainty (TTMA-CDU), which captures aleatoric uncertainty specific to individual classes and provides insight into class confusion and class similarity within the trained network. We validate our proposed methods on the ISIC-18 skin lesion diagnosis dataset and the CIFAR-100 real-world image classification dataset. Our experiments show that (1) TTMA-DU more effectively differentiates correct and incorrect predictions compared to existing uncertainty measures due to mixup perturbation, and (2) TTMA-CDU provides information on class confusion and class similarity for both datasets.

In text mining, topic models are a type of probabilistic generative models for inferring latent semantic topics from text corpus. One of the most popular inference approaches to topic models is perhaps collapsed Gibbs sampling (CGS), which typically samples one single topic label for each observed document-word pair. In this paper, we aim at improving the inference of CGS for topic models. We propose to leverage state augmentation technique by maximizing the number of topic samples to infinity, and then develop a new inference approach, called infinite latent state replication (ILR), to generate robust soft topic assignment for each given document-word pair. Experimental results on the publicly available datasets show that ILR outperforms CGS for inference of existing established topic models.

Decision trees are well-known due to their ease of interpretability. To improve accuracy, we need to grow deep trees or ensembles of trees. These are hard to interpret, offsetting their original benefits. Shapley values have recently become a popular way to explain the predictions of tree-based machine learning models. It provides a linear weighting to features independent of the tree structure. The rise in popularity is mainly due to TreeShap, which solves a general exponential complexity problem in polynomial time. Following extensive adoption in the industry, more efficient algorithms are required. This paper presents a more efficient and straightforward algorithm: Linear TreeShap. Like TreeShap, Linear TreeShap is exact and requires the same amount of memory.