Anomaly detection is critical for finding suspicious behavior in innumerable systems. We need to detect anomalies in real-time, i.e. determine if an incoming entity is anomalous or not, as soon as we receive it, to minimize the effects of malicious activities and start recovery as soon as possible. Therefore, online algorithms that can detect anomalies in a streaming manner are essential. We first propose MIDAS which uses a count-min sketch to detect anomalous edges in dynamic graphs in an online manner, using constant time and memory. We then propose two variants, MIDAS-R which incorporates temporal and spatial relations, and MIDAS-F which aims to filter away anomalous edges to prevent them from negatively affecting the internal data structures. We then extend the count-min sketch to a Higher-Order sketch to capture complex relations in graph data, and to reduce detecting suspicious dense subgraph problem to finding a dense submatrix in constant time. Using this sketch, we propose four streaming methods to detect edge and subgraph anomalies. Next, we broaden the graph setting to multi-aspect data. We propose MStream which detects explainable anomalies in multi-aspect data streams. We further propose MStream-PCA, MStream-IB, and MStream-AE to incorporate correlation between features. Finally, we consider multi-dimensional data streams with concept drift and propose MemStream. MemStream leverages the power of a denoising autoencoder to learn representations and a memory module to learn the dynamically changing trend in data without the need for labels. We prove a theoretical bound on the size of memory for effective drift handling. In addition, we allow quick retraining when the arriving stream becomes sufficiently different from the training data. Furthermore, MemStream makes use of two architecture design choices to be robust to memory poisoning.

In many applications in engineering and sciences analysts have simultaneous access to multiple data sources. In such cases, the overall cost of acquiring information can be reduced via data fusion or multi-fidelity (MF) modeling where one leverages inexpensive low-fidelity (LF) sources to reduce the reliance on expensive high-fidelity (HF) data. In this paper, we employ neural networks (NNs) for data fusion in scenarios where data is very scarce and obtained from an arbitrary number of sources with varying levels of fidelity and cost. We introduce a unique NN architecture that converts MF modeling into a nonlinear manifold learning problem. Our NN architecture inversely learns non-trivial (e.g., non-additive and non-hierarchical) biases of the LF sources in an interpretable and visualizable manifold where each data source is encoded via a low-dimensional distribution. This probabilistic manifold quantifies model form uncertainties such that LF sources with small bias are encoded close to the HF source. Additionally, we endow the output of our NN with a parametric distribution not only to quantify aleatoric uncertainties, but also to reformulate the network's loss function based on strictly proper scoring rules which improve robustness and accuracy on unseen HF data. Through a set of analytic and engineering examples, we demonstrate that our approach provides a high predictive power while quantifying various sources uncertainties.

As social media platforms grow more and more each day, it also increases the need to analyze and understand certain aspects, such as the impact of important or spiking topics over the network[49]. Event Detection techniques are used to automatically identify important or spiking topics by analysing social media data. In this paper, we use the angle of the positive emotion generated by these topics for the users and the magnitude, both reach and time span, in order to better understand what is happening on social media platforms, mainly Twitter. Sentiment Analysis is a field in Natural Language Processing that analyzes user opinions and emotions from written language [38, 66], while Event Detection deals with analyzing information diffusion in graph networks [24]. Although there is a large volume of work done on Event Detection using social media data and on Sentiment Analysis of this type of content, in the current literature, there is a shortcoming of the approaches that combine the two domains. There are multiple communities that are involved in mining, gathering, and giving some meaning to the vast amount of content generated daily by the users of those platforms, namely the Network Analysis and Natural Language Processing communities. The two communities are using different types of approaches since they have different purposes: For the Network Analysis community, the main purpose is developing methods to deal with the spread and mitigation of harmful content using Event Detection. Event Detection is used to detect the impact and spread of topics on Social Networks using multiple types of approaches such as sliding windows, topic detection, etc.

High-cardinality categorical features are pervasive in actuarial data (e.g. occupation in commercial property insurance). Standard categorical encoding methods like one-hot encoding are inadequate in these settings. In this work, we present a novel _Generalised Linear Mixed Model Neural Network_ ("GLMMNet") approach to the modelling of high-cardinality categorical features. The GLMMNet integrates a generalised linear mixed model in a deep learning framework, offering the predictive power of neural networks and the transparency of random effects estimates, the latter of which cannot be obtained from the entity embedding models. Further, its flexibility to deal with any distribution in the exponential dispersion (ED) family makes it widely applicable to many actuarial contexts and beyond. We illustrate and compare the GLMMNet against existing approaches in a range of simulation experiments as well as in a real-life insurance case study. Notably, we find that the GLMMNet often outperforms or at least performs comparably with an entity embedded neural network, while providing the additional benefit of transparency, which is particularly valuable in practical applications. Importantly, while our model was motivated by actuarial applications, it can have wider applicability. The GLMMNet would suit any applications that involve high-cardinality categorical variables and where the response cannot be sufficiently modelled by a Gaussian distribution.

Abstract--Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty estimation in neural networks which, instead of considering a distribution over weights, samples outputs of each layer from a corresponding Gaussian distribution, parametrized by the predictions of mean and variance sub-layers. In uncertainty quality estimation experiments, we show that the proposed method achieves better uncertainty quality than other singlebin Bayesian Model Averaging methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout or Bayes By Backpropagation methods. BNNs consider a distribution do so, one needs the neural network to accompany its output P (w) over weights and sample different weights during each with a measurement of its corresponding uncertainty for each inference. VNNs consider a constant set of weights and use input it processes.

We establish estimations for the parameters of the output distribution for the softmax activation function using the probit function. As an application, we develop a new efficient Bayesian learning algorithm for fully connected neural networks, where training and predictions are performed within the Bayesian inference framework in closed-form. This approach allows sequential learning and requires no computationally expensive gradient calculation and Monte Carlo sampling. Our work generalizes the Bayesian algorithm for a single perceptron for binary classification in \cite{H} to multi-layer perceptrons for multi-class classification.

Graphs are a powerful data structure to represent relational data and are widely used to describe complex real-world data structures. Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) have been well-developed in the past years to mathematically model real-world scenarios in compact graphical representations of distributions of variables. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are new inference methods developed in recent years and are attracting growing attention due to their effectiveness and flexibility in solving inference and learning problems over graph-structured data. These two powerful approaches have different advantages in capturing relations from observations and how they conduct message passing, and they can benefit each other in various tasks. In this survey, we broadly study the intersection of GNNs and PGMs. Specifically, we first discuss how GNNs can benefit from learning structured representations in PGMs, generate explainable predictions by PGMs, and how PGMs can infer object relationships. Then we discuss how GNNs are implemented in PGMs for more efficient inference and structure learning. In the end, we summarize the benchmark datasets used in recent studies and discuss promising future directions.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques are now an essential tool for the parameter estimation of mechanistic and simulatable models with intractable likelihoods. Statistical approaches to SBI such as approximate Bayesian computation and Bayesian synthetic likelihood have been well studied in the well specified and misspecified settings. However, most implementations are inefficient in that many model simulations are wasted. Neural approaches such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL) have been developed that exploit all model simulations to build a surrogate of the likelihood function. However, SNL approaches have been shown to perform poorly under model misspecification. In this paper, we develop a new method for SNL that is robust to model misspecification and can identify areas where the model is deficient. We demonstrate the usefulness of the new approach on several illustrative examples.

Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify optimal strategies within a reasonable computational budget. Moreover, due to the high societal impact associated with the implementation of preventive strategies, uncertainty regarding decisions should be communicated to policy makers, which is naturally embedded in a Bayesian approach. We present a novel technique for evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using a multi-armed bandit framework in combination with a Bayesian anytime $m$-top exploration algorithm. $m$-top exploration allows the algorithm to learn $m$ policies for which it expects the highest utility, enabling experts to inspect this small set of alternative strategies, along with their quantified uncertainty. The anytime component provides policy advisors with flexibility regarding the computation time and the desired confidence, which is important as it is difficult to make this trade-off beforehand. We consider the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using the individual-based model STRIDE, where we learn a set of vaccination policies that minimize the number of infections and hospitalisations. Through experiments we show that our method can efficiently identify the $m$-top policies, which is validated in a scenario where the ground truth is available. Finally, we explore how vaccination policies can best be organised under different contact reduction schemes. Through these experiments, we show that the top policies follow a clear trend regarding the prioritised age groups and assigned vaccine type, which provides insights for future vaccination campaigns.

We developed an inherently interpretable multilevel Bayesian framework for representing variation in regression coefficients that mimics the piecewise linearity of ReLU-activated deep neural networks. We used the framework to formulate a survival model for using medical claims to predict hospital readmission and death that focuses on discharge placement, adjusting for confounding in estimating causal local average treatment effects. We trained the model on a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2008 and 2011, based on their 2009--2011 inpatient episodes, and then tested the model on 2012 episodes. The model scored an AUROC of approximately 0.76 on predicting all-cause readmissions -- defined using official Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) methodology -- or death within 30-days of discharge, being competitive against XGBoost and a Bayesian deep neural network, demonstrating that one need-not sacrifice interpretability for accuracy. Crucially, as a regression model, we provide what blackboxes cannot -- the exact gold-standard global interpretation of the model, identifying relative risk factors and quantifying the effect of discharge placement. We also show that the posthoc explainer SHAP fails to provide accurate explanations.