Structural time series models are state space models for time series data. They are constructed in terms of components each of which has a direct interpretation. For example, one may consider a decomposition in which a series can be seen as the sum of trend and regression components. The multivariate Bayesian structural time series (MBSTS) model (Qiu et al., 2018) is a generalized version of many structural time series models and is constructed as the sum of a trend component, a seasonal component, a cycle component, a regression component, and an error term, where each component provides an independent and additional effect. Users have flexibility in choosing these components and are free to construct their specific forms, for example adding on a regression component with predictors generated through data mining as that in (Jammalamadaka et al., 2019). The MBSTS model uses the Bayes selection technique via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to select among a set of contemporary predictors, thus one does not need to commit to a fixed set of predictors. Specifically, the variable selection technique uses a "spike and slab" approach, through which a different set of predictors can be selected in each MCMC iteration. Then important predictors will be selected according to their overall frequency of numbers being selected over the total number of MCMC iterations. The multivariate structure and the Bayesian framework allow the model to take advantage of the association structure among target series.

We propose a simple approach which combines the strengths of probabilistic graphical models and deep learning architectures for solving the multi-label classification task, focusing specifically on image and video data. First, we show that the performance of previous approaches that combine Markov Random Fields with neural networks can be modestly improved by leveraging more powerful methods such as iterative join graph propagation, integer linear programming, and $\ell_1$ regularization-based structure learning. Then we propose a new modeling framework called deep dependency networks, which augments a dependency network, a model that is easy to train and learns more accurate dependencies but is limited to Gibbs sampling for inference, to the output layer of a neural network. We show that despite its simplicity, jointly learning this new architecture yields significant improvements in performance over the baseline neural network. In particular, our experimental evaluation on three video activity classification datasets: Charades, Textually Annotated Cooking Scenes (TACoS), and Wetlab, and three multi-label image classification datasets: MS-COCO, PASCAL VOC, and NUS-WIDE show that deep dependency networks are almost always superior to pure neural architectures that do not use dependency networks.

Most existing causal structure learning methods assume data collected from one environment and independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). In some cases, data are collected from different subjects from multiple environments, which provides more information but might make the data non-identical or non-independent distribution. Some previous efforts try to learn causal structure from this type of data in two independent stages, i.e., first discovering i.i.d. groups from non-i.i.d. samples, then learning the causal structures from different groups. This straightforward solution ignores the intrinsic connections between the two stages, that is both the clustering stage and the learning stage should be guided by the same causal mechanism. Towards this end, we propose a unified Causal Cluster Structures Learning (named CCSL) method for causal discovery from non-i.i.d. data. This method simultaneously integrates the following two tasks: 1) clustering samples of the subjects with the same causal mechanism into different groups; 2) learning causal structures from the samples within the group. Specifically, for the former, we provide a Causality-related Chinese Restaurant Process to cluster samples based on the similarity of the causal structure; for the latter, we introduce a variational-inference-based approach to learn the causal structures. Theoretical results provide identification of the causal model and the clustering model under the linear non-Gaussian assumption. Experimental results on both simulated and real-world data further validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

For environmental, sustainable economic and political reasons, recycling processes are becoming increasingly important, aiming at a much higher use of secondary raw materials. Currently, for the copper and aluminium industries, no method for the non-destructive online analysis of heterogeneous materials are available. The Prompt Gamma Neutron Activation Analysis (PGNAA) has the potential to overcome this challenge. A difficulty when using PGNAA for online classification arises from the small amount of noisy data, due to short-term measurements. In this case, classical evaluation methods using detailed peak by peak analysis fail. Therefore, we propose to view spectral data as probability distributions. Then, we can classify material using maximum log-likelihood with respect to kernel density estimation and use discrete sampling to optimize hyperparameters. For measurements of pure aluminium alloys we achieve near perfect classification of aluminium alloys under 0.25 second.

A persistent challenge in conditional image synthesis has been to generate diverse output images from the same input image despite only one output image being observed per input image. GAN-based methods are prone to mode collapse, which leads to low diversity. To get around this, we leverage Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) which can overcome mode collapse fundamentally. IMLE uses the same generator as GANs but trains it with a different, non-adversarial objective which ensures each observed image has a generated sample nearby. Unfortunately, to generate high-fidelity images, prior IMLE-based methods require a large number of samples, which is expensive. In this paper, we propose a new method to get around this limitation, which we dub Conditional Hierarchical IMLE (CHIMLE), which can generate high-fidelity images without requiring many samples. We show CHIMLE significantly outperforms the prior best IMLE, GAN and diffusion-based methods in terms of image fidelity and mode coverage across four tasks, namely night-to-day, 16 single image super-resolution, image colourization and image decompression. Quantitatively, our method improves Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) by 36.9% on average compared to the prior best IMLE-based method, and by 27.5% on average compared to the best non-IMLE-based generalpurpose methods. More results and code are available on the project website at https://niopeng.github.io/CHIMLE/.

In location estimation, we are given $n$ samples from a known distribution $f$ shifted by an unknown translation $\lambda$, and want to estimate $\lambda$ as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error $\mathcal N(0, \frac{1}{n\mathcal I})$, where $\mathcal I$ is the Fisher information of $f$. However, the $n$ required for convergence depends on $f$, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using \emph{smoothed} estimators to bound the error for finite $n$ in terms of $\mathcal I_r$, the Fisher information of the $r$-smoothed distribution. As $n \to \infty$, $r \to 0$ at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional $f$ to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning and deep learning methods plays an important role in enhancing trust to the obtained result. In recent years, a numerous number of uncertainty quantification methods have been introduced. Monte Carlo dropout (MC-Dropout) is one of the most well-known techniques to quantify uncertainty in deep learning methods. In this study, we propose two new loss functions by combining cross entropy with Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Predictive Entropy (PE). The obtained results clearly show that the new proposed loss functions lead to having a calibrated MC-Dropout method. Our results confirmed the great impact of the new hybrid loss functions for minimising the overlap between the distributions of uncertainty estimates for correct and incorrect predictions without sacrificing the model's overall performance.

Model fairness is an essential element for Trustworthy AI. While many techniques for model fairness have been proposed, most of them assume that the training and deployment data distributions are identical, which is often not true in practice. In particular, when the bias between labels and sensitive groups changes, the fairness of the trained model is directly influenced and can worsen. We make two contributions for solving this problem. First, we analytically show that existing in-processing fair algorithms have fundamental limits in accuracy and group fairness. We introduce the notion of correlation shifts, which can explicitly capture the change of the above bias. Second, we propose a novel pre-processing step that samples the input data to reduce correlation shifts and thus enables the in-processing approaches to overcome their limitations. We formulate an optimization problem for adjusting the data ratio among labels and sensitive groups to reflect the shifted correlation. A key benefit of our approach lies in decoupling the roles of pre- and in-processing approaches: correlation adjustment via pre-processing and unfairness mitigation on the processed data via in-processing. Experiments show that our framework effectively improves existing in-processing fair algorithms w.r.t. accuracy and fairness, both on synthetic and real datasets.

The integration of discrete algorithmic components in deep learning architectures has numerous applications. Recently, Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE, Niepert, Minervini, and Franceschi 2021), a class of gradient estimators for discrete exponential family distributions, was proposed by combining implicit differentiation through perturbation with the path-wise gradient estimator. However, due to the finite difference approximation of the gradients, it is especially sensitive to the choice of the finite difference step size, which needs to be specified by the user. In this work, we present Adaptive IMLE (AIMLE), the first adaptive gradient estimator for complex discrete distributions: it adaptively identifies the target distribution for IMLE by trading off the density of gradient information with the degree of bias in the gradient estimates. We empirically evaluate our estimator on synthetic examples, as well as on Learning to Explain, Discrete Variational Auto-Encoders, and Neural Relational Inference tasks. In our experiments, we show that our adaptive gradient estimator can produce faithful estimates while requiring orders of magnitude fewer samples than other gradient estimators.

Bayesian learning via Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) has been suggested for differentially private learning. While previous research provides differential privacy bounds for SGLD at the initial steps of the algorithm or when close to convergence, the question of what differential privacy guarantees can be made in between remains unanswered. This interim region is of great importance, especially for Bayesian neural networks, as it is hard to guarantee convergence to the posterior. This paper shows that using SGLD might result in unbounded privacy loss for this interim region, even when sampling from the posterior is as differentially private as desired.