The classic Bayesian persuasion model assumes a Bayesian and best-responding receiver. We study a relaxation of the Bayesian persuasion model where the receiver can approximately best respond to the sender's signaling scheme. We show that, under natural assumptions, (1) the sender can find a signaling scheme that guarantees itself an expected utility almost as good as its optimal utility in the classic model, no matter what approximately best-responding strategy the receiver uses; (2) on the other hand, there is no signaling scheme that gives the sender much more utility than its optimal utility in the classic model, even if the receiver uses the approximately best-responding strategy that is best for the sender. Together, (1) and (2) imply that the approximately best-responding behavior of the receiver does not affect the sender's maximal achievable utility a lot in the Bayesian persuasion problem. The proofs of both results rely on the idea of robustification of a Bayesian persuasion scheme: given a pair of the sender's signaling scheme and the receiver's strategy, we can construct another signaling scheme such that the receiver prefers to use that strategy in the new scheme more than in the original scheme, and the two schemes give the sender similar utilities. As an application of our main result (1), we show that, in a repeated Bayesian persuasion model where the receiver learns to respond to the sender by some algorithms, the sender can do almost as well as in the classic model. Interestingly, unlike (2), with a learning receiver the sender can sometimes do much better than in the classic model.

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of the dynamics of $n^{th}$-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable $m$-step stochastic numerical integrators. We introduce different formulations and training methods for learning models of stochastic dynamics based on observation of trajectory samples. We develop approaches using discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. The adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

Online damage quantification suffers from insufficient labeled data that weakens its accuracy. In this context, adopting the domain adaptation on historical labeled data from similar structures/damages or simulated digital twin data to assist the current diagnosis task would be beneficial. However, most domain adaptation methods are designed for classification and cannot efficiently address damage quantification, a regression problem with continuous real-valued labels. This study first proposes a novel domain adaptation method, the Online Fuzzy-set-based Joint Distribution Adaptation for Regression, to address this challenge. By converting the continuous real-valued labels to fuzzy class labels via fuzzy sets, the marginal and conditional distribution discrepancy are simultaneously measured to achieve the domain adaptation for the damage quantification task. Thanks to the superiority of the proposed method, a state-of-the-art online damage quantification framework based on domain adaptation is presented. Finally, the framework has been comprehensively demonstrated with a damaged helicopter panel, in which three types of damage domain adaptations (across different damage locations, across different damage types, and from simulation to experiment) are all conducted, proving the accuracy of damage quantification can be significantly improved in a realistic environment. It is expected that the proposed approach to be applied to the fleet-level digital twin considering the individual differences.

A key component of cognitive radar is the ability to generalize, or achieve consistent performance across a range of sensing environments, since aspects of the physical scene may vary over time. This presents a challenge for learning-based waveform selection approaches, since transmission policies which are effective in one scene may be highly suboptimal in another. We address this problem by strategically biasing a learning algorithm by exploiting high-level structure across tracking instances, referred to as meta-learning. In this work, we develop an online meta-learning approach for waveform-agile tracking. This approach uses information gained from previous target tracks to speed up and enhance learning in new tracking instances. This results in sample-efficient learning across a class of finite state target channels by exploiting inherent similarity across tracking scenes, attributed to common physical elements such as target type or clutter statistics. We formulate the online waveform selection problem within the framework of Bayesian learning, and provide prior-dependent performance bounds for the meta-learning problem using Probability Approximately Correct (PAC)-Bayes theory. We present a computationally feasible meta-posterior sampling algorithm and study the performance in a simulation study consisting of diverse scenes. Finally, we examine the potential performance benefits and practical challenges associated with online meta-learning for waveform-agile tracking.

Given a machine learning (ML) model and a prediction, explanations can be defined as sets of features which are sufficient for the prediction. In some applications, and besides asking for an explanation, it is also critical to understand whether sensitive features can occur in some explanation, or whether a non-interesting feature must occur in all explanations. This paper starts by relating such queries respectively with the problems of relevancy and necessity in logic-based abduction. The paper then proves membership and hardness results for several families of ML classifiers. Afterwards the paper proposes concrete algorithms for two classes of classifiers. The experimental results confirm the scalability of the proposed algorithms.

The forward model, usually defined through partial differential equations (PDEs), describes certain physical phenomena with parameters as inputs. Generally, solving the forward model is computationally expensive but well-defined. In contrast, the related inverse problem which aims at inferring hidden parameters that cannot be directly observed from limited and noisy observations is typically ill-posed: different sets of parameters can result in similar sensor measurements, and there may be no feasible solution to fit the observed data, or minor errors can render unpredictable changes in the forward model. The Bayesian methods [5, 6], by viewing the unknown parameters as random variables, formulate the inverse problem into a probabilistic problem to capture the uncertainty in observations, forward models, and prior knowledge. One can assign a prior distribution to reflect our knowledge of the parameters before any measurements are made. The likelihood function is characterized through the forward model.

Among Bayesian methods, Monte-Carlo dropout provides principled tools for evaluating the epistemic uncertainty of neural networks. Its popularity recently led to seminal works that proposed activating the dropout layers only during inference for evaluating uncertainty. This approach, which we call dropout injection, provides clear benefits over its traditional counterpart (which we call embedded dropout) since it allows one to obtain a post hoc uncertainty measure for any existing network previously trained without dropout, avoiding an additional, time-consuming training process. Unfortunately, no previous work compared injected and embedded dropout; therefore, we provide the first thorough investigation, focusing on regression problems. The main contribution of our work is to provide guidelines on the effective use of injected dropout so that it can be a practical alternative to the current use of embedded dropout. In particular, we show that its effectiveness strongly relies on a suitable scaling of the corresponding uncertainty measure, and we discuss the trade-off between negative log-likelihood and calibration error as a function of the scale factor. Experimental results on UCI data sets and crowd counting benchmarks support our claim that dropout injection can effectively behave as a competitive post hoc uncertainty quantification technique.

Connected decision boundaries are useful in several tasks like image segmentation, clustering, alpha-shape or defining a region in nD-space. However, the machine learning literature lacks methods for generating connected decision boundaries using neural networks. Thresholding an invex function, a generalization of a convex function, generates such decision boundaries. This paper presents two methods for constructing invex functions using neural networks. The first approach is based on constraining a neural network with Gradient Clipped-Gradient Penality (GCGP), where we clip and penalise the gradients. In contrast, the second one is based on the relationship of the invex function to the composition of invertible and convex functions. We employ connectedness as a basic interpretation method and create connected region-based classifiers. We show that multiple connected set based classifiers can approximate any classification function. In the experiments section, we use our methods for classification tasks using an ensemble of 1-vs-all models as well as using a single multiclass model on larger-scale datasets. The experiments show that connected set-based classifiers do not pose any disadvantage over ordinary neural network classifiers, but rather, enhance their interpretability. We also did an extensive study on the properties of invex function and connected sets for interpretability and network morphism with experiments on simulated and real-world data sets. Our study suggests that invex function is fundamental to understanding and applying locality and connectedness of input space which is useful for various downstream tasks.

Image-based environment perception is an important component especially for driver assistance systems or autonomous driving. In this scope, modern neuronal networks are used to identify multiple objects as well as the according position and size information within a single frame. The performance of such an object detection model is important for the overall performance of the whole system. However, a detection model might also predict these objects under a certain degree of uncertainty. [...] In this work, we examine the semantic uncertainty (which object type?) as well as the spatial uncertainty (where is the object and how large is it?). We evaluate if the predicted uncertainties of an object detection model match with the observed error that is achieved on real-world data. In the first part of this work, we introduce the definition for confidence calibration of the semantic uncertainty in the context of object detection, instance segmentation, and semantic segmentation. We integrate additional position information in our examinations to evaluate the effect of the object's position on the semantic calibration properties. Besides measuring calibration, it is also possible to perform a post-hoc recalibration of semantic uncertainty that might have turned out to be miscalibrated. [...] The second part of this work deals with the spatial uncertainty obtained by a probabilistic detection model. [...] We review and extend common calibration methods so that it is possible to obtain parametric uncertainty distributions for the position information in a more flexible way. In the last part, we demonstrate a possible use-case for our derived calibration methods in the context of object tracking. [...] We integrate our previously proposed calibration techniques and demonstrate the usefulness of semantic and spatial uncertainty calibration in a subsequent process. [...]

Our intention is to provide a definitive reference on what it would take to safely make use of generative/predictive models in the absence of a solution to the Eliciting Latent Knowledge problem. Furthermore, we believe that large language models can be understood as such predictive models of the world, and that such a conceptualization raises significant opportunities for their safe yet powerful use via carefully conditioning them to predict desirable outputs. Unfortunately, such approaches also raise a variety of potentially fatal safety problems, particularly surrounding situations where predictive models predict the output of other AI systems, potentially unbeknownst to us. There are numerous potential solutions to such problems, however, primarily via carefully conditioning models to predict the things we want (e.g. humans) rather than the things we don't (e.g. malign AIs). Furthermore, due to the simplicity of the prediction objective, we believe that predictive models present the easiest inner alignment problem that we are aware of. As a result, we think that conditioning approaches for predictive models represent the safest known way of eliciting human-level and slightly superhuman capabilities from large language models and other similar future models.