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 Bayesian Learning


Emotion Detection From Social Media Posts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the last few years, social media has evolved into a medium for expressing personal views, emotions, and even business and political proposals, recommendations, and advertisements. We address the topic of identifying emotions from text data obtained from social media posts like Twitter in this research. We have deployed different traditional machine learning techniques such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes, Decision Trees, and Random Forest, as well as deep neural network models such as LSTM, CNN, GRU, BiLSTM, BiGRU to classify these tweets into four emotion categories (Fear, Anger, Joy, and Sadness). Furthermore, we have constructed a BiLSTM and BiGRU ensemble model. The evaluation result shows that the deep neural network models(BiGRU, to be specific) produce the most promising results compared to traditional machine learning models, with an 87.53 % accuracy rate. The ensemble model performs even better (87.66 %), albeit the difference is not significant. This result will aid in the development of a decision-making tool that visualizes emotional fluctuations.


Virtual Reality via Object Pose Estimation and Active Learning: Realizing Telepresence Robots with Aerial Manipulation Capabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article presents a novel telepresence system for advancing aerial manipulation in dynamic and unstructured environments. The proposed system not only features a haptic device, but also a virtual reality (VR) interface that provides real-time 3D displays of the robot's workspace as well as a haptic guidance to its remotely located operator. To realize this, multiple sensors namely a LiDAR, cameras and IMUs are utilized. For processing of the acquired sensory data, pose estimation pipelines are devised for industrial objects of both known and unknown geometries. We further propose an active learning pipeline in order to increase the sample efficiency of a pipeline component that relies on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) based object detection. All these algorithms jointly address various challenges encountered during the execution of perception tasks in industrial scenarios. In the experiments, exhaustive ablation studies are provided to validate the proposed pipelines. Methodologically, these results commonly suggest how an awareness of the algorithms' own failures and uncertainty (`introspection') can be used tackle the encountered problems. Moreover, outdoor experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the overall system in enhancing aerial manipulation capabilities. In particular, with flight campaigns over days and nights, from spring to winter, and with different users and locations, we demonstrate over 70 robust executions of pick-and-place, force application and peg-in-hole tasks with the DLR cable-Suspended Aerial Manipulator (SAM). As a result, we show the viability of the proposed system in future industrial applications.


On the Interventional Kullback-Leibler Divergence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern machine learning approaches excel in static settings where a large amount of i.i.d. training data are available for a given task. In a dynamic environment, though, an intelligent agent needs to be able to transfer knowledge and re-use learned components across domains. It has been argued that this may be possible through causal models, aiming to mirror the modularity of the real world in terms of independent causal mechanisms. However, the true causal structure underlying a given set of data is generally not identifiable, so it is desirable to have means to quantify differences between models (e.g., between the ground truth and an estimate), on both the observational and interventional level. In the present work, we introduce the Interventional Kullback-Leibler (IKL) divergence to quantify both structural and distributional differences between models based on a finite set of multi-environment distributions generated by interventions from the ground truth. Since we generally cannot quantify all differences between causal models for every finite set of interventional distributions, we propose a sufficient condition on the intervention targets to identify subsets of observed variables on which the models provably agree or disagree.


Incorporating Expert Opinion on Observable Quantities into Statistical Models -- A General Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This article describes an approach to incorporate expert opinion on observable quantities through the use of a loss function which updates a prior belief as opposed to specifying parameters on the priors. Eliciting information on observable quantities allows experts to provide meaningful information on a quantity familiar to them, in contrast to elicitation on model parameters, which may be subject to interactions with other parameters or non-linear transformations before obtaining an observable quantity. The approach to incorporating expert opinion described in this paper is distinctive in that we do not specify a prior to match an expert's opinion on observed quantity, rather we obtain a posterior by updating the model parameters through a loss function. This loss function contains the observable quantity, expressed a function of the parameters, and is related to the expert's opinion which is typically operationalized as a statistical distribution. Parameters which generate observable quantities which are further from the expert's opinion incur a higher loss, allowing for the model parameters to be estimated based on their fidelity to both the data and expert opinion, with the relative strength determined by the number of observations and precision of the elicited belief. Including expert opinion in this fashion allows for a flexible specification of the opinion and in many situations is straightforward to implement with commonly used probabilistic programming software. We highlight this using three worked examples of varying model complexity including survival models, a multivariate normal distribution and a regression problem.


Efficient and Accurate Learning of Mixtures of Plackett-Luce Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mixture models of Plackett-Luce (PL) -- one of the most fundamental ranking models -- are an active research area of both theoretical and practical significance. Most previously proposed parameter estimation algorithms instantiate the EM algorithm, often with random initialization. However, such an initialization scheme may not yield a good initial estimate and the algorithms require multiple restarts, incurring a large time complexity. As for the EM procedure, while the E-step can be performed efficiently, maximizing the log-likelihood in the M-step is difficult due to the combinatorial nature of the PL likelihood function (Gormley and Murphy 2008). Therefore, previous authors favor algorithms that maximize surrogate likelihood functions (Zhao et al. 2018, 2020). However, the final estimate may deviate from the true maximum likelihood estimate as a consequence. In this paper, we address these known limitations. We propose an initialization algorithm that can provide a provably accurate initial estimate and an EM algorithm that maximizes the true log-likelihood function efficiently. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets show that our algorithm is competitive in terms of accuracy and speed to baseline algorithms, especially on datasets with a large number of items.


Machine Learning Based Approach to Recommend MITRE ATT&CK Framework for Software Requirements and Design Specifications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Engineering more secure software has become a critical challenge in the cyber world. It is very important to develop methodologies, techniques, and tools for developing secure software. To develop secure software, software developers need to think like an attacker through mining software repositories. These aim to analyze and understand the data repositories related to software development. The main goal is to use these software repositories to support the decision-making process of software development. There are different vulnerability databases like Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE), Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures database (CVE), and CAPEC. We utilized a database called MITRE. MITRE ATT&CK tactics and techniques have been used in various ways and methods, but tools for utilizing these tactics and techniques in the early stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) are lacking. In this paper, we use machine learning algorithms to map requirements to the MITRE ATT&CK database and determine the accuracy of each mapping depending on the data split.


DAG Learning on the Permutahedron

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a continuous optimization framework for discovering a latent directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our approach optimizes over the polytope of permutation vectors, the so-called Permutahedron, to learn a topological ordering. Edges can be optimized jointly, or learned conditional on the ordering via a non-differentiable subroutine. Compared to existing continuous optimization approaches our formulation has a number of advantages including: 1. validity: optimizes over exact DAGs as opposed to other relaxations optimizing approximate DAGs; 2. modularity: accommodates any edge-optimization procedure, edge structural parameterization, and optimization loss; 3. end-to-end: either alternately iterates between node-ordering and edge-optimization, or optimizes them jointly. We demonstrate, on real-world data problems in protein-signaling and transcriptional network discovery, that our approach lies on the Pareto frontier of two key metrics, the SID and SHD. In many domains, including cell biology (Sachs et al., 2005), finance (Sanford & Moosa, 2012), and genetics (Zhang et al., 2013), the data generating process is thought to be represented by an underlying directed acylic graph (DAG). Many models rely on DAG assumptions, e.g., causal modeling uses DAGs to model distribution shifts, ensure predictor fairness among subpopulations, or learn agents more sample-efficiently (Kaddour et al., 2022). A key question, with implications ranging from better modeling to causal discovery, is how to recover this unknown DAG from observed data alone. Learning DAGs from observational data alone is fundamentally difficult for two reasons. This riddles the search space with local minima; (ii) Computation: DAG discovery is a costly combinatorial optimization problem over an exponentially large solution space and subject to global acyclicity constraints. To address issue (ii), recent work has proposed continuous relaxations of the DAG learning problem.


Class Token and Knowledge Distillation for Multi-head Self-Attention Speaker Verification Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores three novel approaches to improve the performance of speaker verification (SV) systems based on deep neural networks (DNN) using Multi-head Self-Attention (MSA) mechanisms and memory layers. Firstly, we propose the use of a learnable vector called Class token to replace the average global pooling mechanism to extract the embeddings. Unlike global average pooling, our proposal takes into account the temporal structure of the input what is relevant for the text-dependent SV task. The class token is concatenated to the input before the first MSA layer, and its state at the output is used to predict the classes. To gain additional robustness, we introduce two approaches. First, we have developed a Bayesian estimation of the class token. Second, we have added a distilled representation token for training a teacher-student pair of networks using the Knowledge Distillation (KD) philosophy, which is combined with the class token. This distillation token is trained to mimic the predictions from the teacher network, while the class token replicates the true label. All the strategies have been tested on the RSR2015-Part II and DeepMine-Part 1 databases for text-dependent SV, providing competitive results compared to the same architecture using the average pooling mechanism to extract average embeddings.


Mathematical Theory of Bayesian Statistics for Unknown Information Source

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In statistical inference, uncertainty is unknown and all models are wrong. That is to say, a person who makes a statistical model and a prior distribution is simultaneously aware that both are fictional candidates. To study such cases, statistical measures have been constructed, such as cross validation, information criteria, and marginal likelihood, however, their mathematical properties have not yet been completely clarified when statistical models are under- and over- parametrized. We introduce a place of mathematical theory of Bayesian statistics for unknown uncertainty, which clarifies general properties of cross validation, information criteria, and marginal likelihood, even if an unknown data-generating process is unrealizable by a model or even if the posterior distribution cannot be approximated by any normal distribution. Hence it gives a helpful standpoint for a person who cannot believe in any specific model and prior. This paper consists of three parts. The first is a new result, whereas the second and third are well-known previous results with new experiments. We show there exists a more precise estimator of the generalization loss than leave-one-out cross validation, there exists a more accurate approximation of marginal likelihood than BIC, and the optimal hyperparameters for generalization loss and marginal likelihood are different.


Bayesian MRI Reconstruction with Joint Uncertainty Estimation using Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a framework that enables efficient sampling from learned probability distributions for MRI reconstruction. Different from conventional deep learning-based MRI reconstruction techniques, samples are drawn from the posterior distribution given the measured k-space using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. In addition to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate for the image, which can be obtained with conventional methods, the minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimate and uncertainty maps can also be computed. The data-driven Markov chains are constructed from the generative model learned from a given image database and are independent of the forward operator that is used to model the k-space measurement. This provides flexibility because the method can be applied to k-space acquired with different sampling schemes or receive coils using the same pre-trained models. Furthermore, we use a framework based on a reverse diffusion process to be able to utilize advanced generative models. The performance of the method is evaluated on an open dataset using 10-fold undersampling in k-space.