Effective communication is crucial for deploying robots in mission-specific tasks, but inadequate or unreliable communication can greatly reduce mission efficacy, for example in search and rescue missions where communication-denied conditions may occur. In such missions, robots are deployed to locate targets, such as human survivors, but they might get trapped at hazardous locations, such as in a trapping pit or by debris. Thus, the information the robot collected is lost owing to the lack of communication. In our prior work, we developed the notion of a path-based sensor. A path-based sensor detects whether or not an event has occurred along a particular path, but it does not provide the exact location of the event. Such path-based sensor observations are well-suited to communication-denied environments, and various studies have explored methods to improve information gathering in such settings. In some missions it is typical for target elements to be in close proximity to hazardous factors that hinder the information-gathering process. In this study, we examine a similar scenario and conduct experiments to determine if additional knowledge about the correlation between hazards and targets improves the efficiency of information gathering. To incorporate this knowledge, we utilize a Bayesian network representation of domain knowledge and develop an algorithm based on this representation. Our empirical investigation reveals that such additional information on correlation is beneficial only in environments with moderate hazard lethality, suggesting that while knowledge of correlation helps, further research and development is necessary for optimal outcomes.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a powerful technique for automating the tuning of machine learning (ML) models. However, in many real-world applications, accuracy is only one of multiple performance criteria that must be considered. Optimizing these objectives simultaneously on a complex and diverse search space remains a challenging task. In this paper, we propose MO-DEHB, an effective and flexible multi-objective (MO) optimizer that extends the recent evolutionary Hyperband method DEHB. We validate the performance of MO-DEHB using a comprehensive suite of 15 benchmarks consisting of diverse and challenging MO problems, including HPO, neural architecture search (NAS), and joint NAS and HPO, with objectives including accuracy, latency and algorithmic fairness. A comparative study against state-of-the-art MO optimizers demonstrates that MO-DEHB clearly achieves the best performance across our 15 benchmarks.

Even though dropout is a popular regularization technique, its theoretical properties are not fully understood. In this paper we study dropout regularization in extended generalized linear models based on double exponential families, for which the dispersion parameter can vary with the features. A theoretical analysis shows that dropout regularization prefers rare but important features in both the mean and dispersion, generalizing an earlier result for conventional generalized linear models. Training is performed using stochastic gradient descent with adaptive learning rate. To illustrate, we apply dropout to adaptive smoothing with B-splines, where both the mean and dispersion parameters are modelled flexibly. The important B-spline basis functions can be thought of as rare features, and we confirm in experiments that dropout is an effective form of regularization for mean and dispersion parameters that improves on a penalized maximum likelihood approach with an explicit smoothness penalty.

NUBO, short for Newcastle University Bayesian Optimisation, is a Bayesian optimisation framework for the optimisation of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, such as physical experiments and computer simulators. Bayesian optimisation is a cost-efficient optimisation strategy that uses surrogate modelling via Gaussian processes to represent an objective function and acquisition functions to guide the selection of candidate points to approximate the global optimum of the objective function. NUBO itself focuses on transparency and user experience to make Bayesian optimisation easily accessible to researchers from all disciplines. Clean and understandable code, precise references, and thorough documentation ensure transparency, while user experience is ensured by a modular and flexible design, easy-to-write syntax, and careful selection of Bayesian optimisation algorithms. NUBO allows users to tailor Bayesian optimisation to their specific problem by writing the optimisation loop themselves using the provided building blocks. It supports sequential single-point, parallel multi-point, and asynchronous optimisation of bounded, constrained, and/or mixed (discrete and continuous) parameter input spaces. Only algorithms and methods that are extensively tested and validated to perform well are included in NUBO. This ensures that the package remains compact and does not overwhelm the user with an unnecessarily large number of options. The package is written in Python but does not require expert knowledge of Python to optimise your simulators and experiments. NUBO is distributed as open-source software under the BSD 3-Clause licence.

Artistic pieces can be studied from several perspectives, one example being their reception among readers over time. In the present work, we approach this interesting topic from the standpoint of literary works, particularly assessing the task of predicting whether a book will become a best seller. Dissimilarly from previous approaches, we focused on the full content of books and considered visualization and classification tasks. We employed visualization for the preliminary exploration of the data structure and properties, involving SemAxis and linear discriminant analyses. Then, to obtain quantitative and more objective results, we employed various classifiers. Such approaches were used along with a dataset containing (i) books published from 1895 to 1924 and consecrated as best sellers by the Publishers Weekly Bestseller Lists and (ii) literary works published in the same period but not being mentioned in that list. Our comparison of methods revealed that the best-achieved result -- combining a bag-of-words representation with a logistic regression classifier -- led to an average accuracy of 0.75 both for the leave-one-out and 10-fold cross-validations. Such an outcome suggests that it is unfeasible to predict the success of books with high accuracy using only the full content of the texts. Nevertheless, our findings provide insights into the factors leading to the relative success of a literary work.

We present an approach for safe motion planning under robot state and environment (obstacle and landmark location) uncertainties. To this end, we first develop an approach that accounts for the landmark uncertainties during robot localization. Existing planning approaches assume that the landmark locations are well known or are known with little uncertainty. However, this might not be true in practice. Noisy sensors and imperfect motions compound to the errors originating from the estimate of environment features. Moreover, possible occlusions and dynamic objects in the environment render imperfect landmark estimation. Consequently, not considering this uncertainty can wrongly localize the robot, leading to inefficient plans. Our approach thus incorporates the landmark uncertainty within the Bayes filter estimation framework. We also analyze the effect of considering this uncertainty and delineate the conditions under which it can be ignored. Second, we extend the state-of-the-art by computing an exact expression for the collision probability under Gaussian distributed robot motion, perception and obstacle location uncertainties. We formulate the collision probability process as a quadratic form in random variables. Under Gaussian distribution assumptions, an exact expression for collision probability is thus obtained which is computable in real-time. In contrast, existing approaches approximate the collision probability using upper-bounds that can lead to overly conservative estimate and thereby suboptimal plans. We demonstrate and evaluate our approach using a theoretical example and simulations. We also present a comparison of our approach to different state-of-the-art methods.

However, due to the limited recording capabilities Learning causal structure among event types from and storage capacities, retaining event's occurred times discrete-time event sequences is a particularly important with high-resolution is expensive or practically impossible in but challenging task. Existing methods, such many real-world applications, and we usually only can access as the multivariate Hawkes processes based methods, the corresponding discrete-time event sequences. For example, mostly boil down to learning the so-called in large wireless networks, the event sequences are usually Granger causality which assumes that the cause logged at a certain frequency by different devices whose event happens strictly prior to its effect event. Such time might not be accurately synchronized. As a result, lowresolution an assumption is often untenable beyond applications, discrete-time event sequences are obtained and the especially when dealing with discrete-time temporal precedence assumption will be frequently violated event sequences in low-resolution; and typical discrete in discrete-time event sequences, which raises a serious identifiability Hawkes processes mainly suffer from identifiability issue of causal discovery. For example, as shown issues raised by the instantaneous effect, in Figure 1, there are three event sequences produced by three i.e., the causal relationship that occurred simultaneously event types v

Language models often pre-train on large unsupervised text corpora, then fine-tune on additional task-specific data. However, typical fine-tuning schemes do not prioritize the examples that they tune on. We show that, if you can prioritize informative training data, you can achieve better performance while using fewer labels. To do this we augment a language model with an epinet: a small additional network that helps to estimate model uncertainty and forms an \textit{epistemic neural network} (ENN). ENNs are neural networks that can know what they don't know. Using an epinet to prioritize uncertain data, we can fine-tune BERT on GLUE tasks to the same performance while using 2x less data than training without prioritization. We also investigate performance in synthetic neural network generative models designed to build understanding. In each setting, using an epinet outperforms heuristic active learning schemes.

Reconstructing semantic 3D building models at the level of detail (LoD) 3 is a long-standing challenge. Unlike mesh-based models, they require watertight geometry and object-wise semantics at the fa\c{c}ade level. The principal challenge of such demanding semantic 3D reconstruction is reliable fa\c{c}ade-level semantic segmentation of 3D input data. We present a novel method, called Scan2LoD3, that accurately reconstructs semantic LoD3 building models by improving fa\c{c}ade-level semantic 3D segmentation. To this end, we leverage laser physics and 3D building model priors to probabilistically identify model conflicts. These probabilistic physical conflicts propose locations of model openings: Their final semantics and shapes are inferred in a Bayesian network fusing multimodal probabilistic maps of conflicts, 3D point clouds, and 2D images. To fulfill demanding LoD3 requirements, we use the estimated shapes to cut openings in 3D building priors and fit semantic 3D objects from a library of fa\c{c}ade objects. Extensive experiments on the TUM city campus datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed Scan2LoD3 over the state-of-the-art methods in fa\c{c}ade-level detection, semantic segmentation, and LoD3 building model reconstruction. We believe our method can foster the development of probability-driven semantic 3D reconstruction at LoD3 since not only the high-definition reconstruction but also reconstruction confidence becomes pivotal for various applications such as autonomous driving and urban simulations.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-$m$ rate, where $m$ is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large $m$ is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.