Characterizing how neural network depth, width, and dataset size jointly impact model quality is a central problem in deep learning theory. We give here a complete solution in the special case of linear networks with output dimension one trained using zero noise Bayesian inference with Gaussian weight priors and mean squared error as a negative log-likelihood. For any training dataset, network depth, and hidden layer widths, we find non-asymptotic expressions for the predictive posterior and Bayesian model evidence in terms of Meijer-G functions, a class of meromorphic special functions of a single complex variable. Through novel asymptotic expansions of these Meijer-G functions, a rich new picture of the joint role of depth, width, and dataset size emerges. We show that linear networks make provably optimal predictions at infinite depth: the posterior of infinitely deep linear networks with data-agnostic priors is the same as that of shallow networks with evidence-maximizing data-dependent priors. This yields a principled reason to prefer deeper networks when priors are forced to be data-agnostic. Moreover, we show that with data-agnostic priors, Bayesian model evidence in wide linear networks is maximized at infinite depth, elucidating the salutary role of increased depth for model selection. Underpinning our results is a novel emergent notion of effective depth, given by the number of hidden layers times the number of data points divided by the network width; this determines the structure of the posterior in the large-data limit.

The advances in Machine Learning (ML) in recent years have been both impressive and far-reaching. However, the deployment of ML models is still impaired by a lack of trust in how the best-performing ML models make predictions. The issue of lack of trust is even more acute in the uses of ML models in high-risk or safety-critical domains. eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is at the core of ongoing efforts for delivering trustworthy AI. Unfortunately, XAI is riddled with critical misconceptions, that foster distrust instead of building trust. This paper details some of the most visible misconceptions in XAI, and shows how formal methods have been used, both to disprove those misconceptions, but also to devise practically effective alternatives.

Deep learning models, including modern systems like large language models, are well known to offer unreliable estimates of the uncertainty of their decisions. In order to improve the quality of the confidence levels, also known as calibration, of a model, common approaches entail the addition of either data-dependent or data-independent regularization terms to the training loss. Data-dependent regularizers have been recently introduced in the context of conventional frequentist learning to penalize deviations between confidence and accuracy. In contrast, data-independent regularizers are at the core of Bayesian learning, enforcing adherence of the variational distribution in the model parameter space to a prior density. The former approach is unable to quantify epistemic uncertainty, while the latter is severely affected by model misspecification. In light of the limitations of both methods, this paper proposes an integrated framework, referred to as calibration-aware Bayesian neural networks (CA-BNNs), that applies both regularizers while optimizing over a variational distribution as in Bayesian learning. Numerical results validate the advantages of the proposed approach in terms of expected calibration error (ECE) and reliability diagrams.

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.

Even when the causal graph underlying our data is unknown, we can use observational data to narrow down the possible values that an average treatment effect (ATE) can take by (1) identifying the graph up to a Markov equivalence class; and (2) estimating that ATE for each graph in the class. While the PC algorithm can identify this class under strong faithfulness assumptions, it can be computationally prohibitive. Fortunately, only the local graph structure around the treatment is required to identify the set of possible ATE values, a fact exploited by local discovery algorithms to improve computational efficiency. In this paper, we introduce Local Discovery using Eager Collider Checks (LDECC), a new local causal discovery algorithm that leverages unshielded colliders to orient the treatment's parents differently from existing methods. We show that there exist graphs where LDECC exponentially outperforms existing local discovery algorithms and vice versa. Moreover, we show that LDECC and existing algorithms rely on different faithfulness assumptions, leveraging this insight to weaken the assumptions for identifying the set of possible ATE values.

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.

Combining predictions from different models is a central problem in Bayesian inference and machine learning more broadly. Currently, these predictive distributions are almost exclusively combined using linear mixtures such as Bayesian model averaging, Bayesian stacking, and mixture of experts. Such linear mixtures impose idiosyncrasies that might be undesirable for some applications, such as multi-modality. While there exist alternative strategies (e.g. geometric bridge or superposition), optimising their parameters usually involves computing an intractable normalising constant repeatedly. We present two novel Bayesian model combination tools. These are generalisations of model stacking, but combine posterior densities by log-linear pooling (locking) and quantum superposition (quacking). To optimise model weights while avoiding the burden of normalising constants, we investigate the Hyvarinen score of the combined posterior predictions. We demonstrate locking with an illustrative example and discuss its practical application with importance sampling.

Originally introduced as a neural network for ensemble learning, mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become a fundamental building block of highly successful modern deep neural networks for heterogeneous data analysis in several applications, including those in machine learning, statistics, bioinformatics, economics, and medicine. Despite its popularity in practice, a satisfactory level of understanding of the convergence behavior of Gaussian-gated MoE parameter estimation is far from complete. The underlying reason for this challenge is the inclusion of covariates in the Gaussian gating and expert networks, which leads to their intrinsically complex interactions via partial differential equations with respect to their parameters. We address these issues by designing novel Voronoi loss functions to accurately capture heterogeneity in the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for resolving parameter estimation in these models. Our results reveal distinct behaviors of the MLE under two settings: the first setting is when all the location parameters in the Gaussian gating are non-zeros while the second setting is when there exists at least one zero-valued location parameter. Notably, these behaviors can be characterized by the solvability of two different systems of polynomial equations. Finally, we conduct a simulation study to verify our theoretical results.

Modern statistical learning algorithms are capable of amazing flexibility, but struggle with interpretability. One possible solution is sparsity: making inference such that many of the parameters are estimated as being identically 0, which may be imposed through the use of nonsmooth penalties such as the $\ell_1$ penalty. However, the $\ell_1$ penalty introduces significant bias when high sparsity is desired. In this article, we retain the $\ell_1$ penalty, but define learnable penalty weights $\lambda_p$ endowed with hyperpriors. We start the article by investigating the optimization problem this poses, developing a proximal operator associated with the $\ell_1$ norm. We then study the theoretical properties of this variable-coefficient $\ell_1$ penalty in the context of penalized likelihood. Next, we investigate application of this penalty to Variational Bayes, developing a model we call the Sparse Bayesian Lasso which allows for behavior qualitatively like Lasso regression to be applied to arbitrary variational models. In simulation studies, this gives us the Uncertainty Quantification and low bias properties of simulation-based approaches with an order of magnitude less computation. Finally, we apply our methodology to a Bayesian lagged spatiotemporal regression model of internal displacement that occurred during the Iraqi Civil War of 2013-2017.

In robotics, simulation has the potential to reduce design time and costs, and lead to a more robust engineered solution and a safer development process. However, the use of simulators is predicated on the availability of good models. This contribution is concerned with improving the quality of these models via calibration, which is cast herein in a Bayesian framework. First, we discuss the Bayesian machinery involved in model calibration. Then, we demonstrate it in one example: calibration of a vehicle dynamics model that has low degree of freedom count and can be used for state estimation, model predictive control, or path planning. A high fidelity simulator is used to emulate the ``experiments'' and generate the data for the calibration. The merit of this work is not tied to a new Bayesian methodology for calibration, but to the demonstration of how the Bayesian machinery can establish connections among models in computational dynamics, even when the data in use is noisy. The software used to generate the results reported herein is available in a public repository for unfettered use and distribution.