We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

Meta-learning aims to extract useful inductive biases from a set of related datasets. In Bayesian meta-learning, this is typically achieved by constructing a prior distribution over neural network parameters. However, specifying families of computationally viable prior distributions over the high-dimensional neural network parameters is difficult. As a result, existing approaches resort to meta-learning restrictive diagonal Gaussian priors, severely limiting their expressiveness and performance. To circumvent these issues, we approach meta-learning through the lens of functional Bayesian neural network inference, which views the prior as a stochastic process and performs inference in the function space. Specifically, we view the meta-training tasks as samples from the data-generating process and formalize meta-learning as empirically estimating the law of this stochastic process. Our approach can seamlessly acquire and represent complex prior knowledge by meta-learning the score function of the data-generating process marginals instead of parameter space priors. In a comprehensive benchmark, we demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of predictive accuracy and substantial improvements in the quality of uncertainty estimates.

The past three decades have witnessed notable success in designing efficient SAT solvers, with modern solvers capable of solving industrial benchmarks containing millions of variables in just a few seconds. The success of modern SAT solvers owes to the widely-used CDCL algorithm, which lacks comprehensive theoretical investigation. Furthermore, it has been observed that CDCL solvers still struggle to deal with specific classes of benchmarks comprising only hundreds of variables, which contrasts with their widespread use in real-world applications. Consequently, there is an urgent need to uncover the inner workings of these seemingly weak yet powerful black boxes. In this paper, we present a first step towards this goal by introducing an approach called CausalSAT, which employs causal reasoning to gain insights into the functioning of modern SAT solvers. CausalSAT initially generates observational data from the execution of SAT solvers and learns a structured graph representing the causal relationships between the components of a SAT solver. Subsequently, given a query such as whether a clause with low literals blocks distance (LBD) has a higher clause utility, CausalSAT calculates the causal effect of LBD on clause utility and provides an answer to the question. We use CausalSAT to quantitatively verify hypotheses previously regarded as "rules of thumb" or empirical findings such as the query above. Moreover, CausalSAT can address previously unexplored questions, like which branching heuristic leads to greater clause utility in order to study the relationship between branching and clause management. Experimental evaluations using practical benchmarks demonstrate that CausalSAT effectively fits the data, verifies four "rules of thumb", and provides answers to three questions closely related to implementing modern solvers.

Real-time demand prediction is a critical input for dynamic bus routing. While many researchers have developed numerous complex methods to predict short-term transit demand, the applications have been limited to short, stable time frames and a few stations. How these methods perform in highly dynamic environments has not been studied, nor has their performance been systematically compared. We built an open-source infrastructure with five common methodologies, including econometric and deep learning approaches, and assessed their performance under stable and highly dynamic conditions. We used a time series from smartcard data to predict demand for the following day for the BRT system in Bogota, Colombia. The dynamic conditions in the time series include a month-long protest and the COVID-19 pandemic. Both conditions triggered drastic shifts in demand. The results reveal that most tested models perform similarly in stable conditions, with MAAPE varying from 0.08 to 0.12. The benchmark demonstrated that all models performed significantly worse in both dynamic conditions compared to the stable conditions. In the month-long protest, the increased MAAPE ranged from 0.14 to 0.24. Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the increased MAAPE ranged from 0.12 to 0.82. Notably, in the COVID-19 pandemic condition, an LSTM model with adaptive training and a multi-output design outperformed other models, adapting faster to disruptions. The prediction error stabilized within approximately 1.5 months, whereas other models continued to exhibit higher error rates even a year after the start of the pandemic. The aim of this open-source codebase infrastructure is to lower the barrier for other researchers to replicate and reproduce models, facilitate a collective effort within the research community to improve the benchmarking process and accelerate the advancement of short-term ridership prediction models.

This study aims to investigate the utilization of Bayesian techniques for the calibration of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers. These devices have garnered substantial interest in various practical applications and typically require calibration through error-correcting functions. The parameters of these error-correcting functions are determined during a calibration process. However, due to various sources of noise, these parameters cannot be determined with precision, making it desirable to incorporate uncertainty in the calibration models. Bayesian modeling offers a natural and complete way of reflecting uncertainty by treating the model parameters as variables rather than fixed values. Additionally, Bayesian modeling enables the incorporation of prior knowledge, making it an ideal choice for calibration. Nevertheless, it is infrequently used in sensor calibration. This study introduces Bayesian methods for the calibration of MEMS accelerometer data in a straightforward manner using recent advances in probabilistic programming.

In the field of behavior-related brain computation, it is necessary to meaningfully align raw neural population activities against the drastic shift between them. However, the alignment is non-trivial since most neural population activities are in a multivariate time-series manner. An instrumental framework within neuroscience research posits that trial-based neural population activities rely on low-dimensional latent dynamics. Focusing on such latent dynamics greatly facilitates the alignment procedure. Despite the considerable progress we have reached, existing methods usually ignore the intrinsic spatio-temporal structures within latent dynamics. Thus, those solutions lead to poor quality in dynamics structures and overall performance after alignment. To tackle this problem, we propose a method leveraging the expressiveness of diffusion model to relieve such issues. Specifically, the latent dynamics structures of the source domain are first extracted by the diffusion model. Then, such structures are well-recovered through a maximum likelihood alignment procedure on the target domain. We first demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method on a synthetic dataset. Then, when applied to neural recordings from primate motor cortex, under both cross-day and inter-subject settings, our method consistently manifests its capability of preserving the spatio-temporal structure of latent dynamics and outperforms existing approaches in alignment quality.

Real-world optimisation problems often feature complex combinations of (1) diverse constraints, (2) discrete and mixed spaces, and are (3) highly parallelisable. (4) There are also cases where the objective function cannot be queried if unknown constraints are not satisfied, e.g. in drug discovery, safety on animal experiments (unknown constraints) must be established before human clinical trials (querying objective function) may proceed. However, most existing works target each of the above three problems in isolation and do not consider (4) unknown constraints with query rejection. For problems with diverse constraints and/or unconventional input spaces, it is difficult to apply these techniques as they are often mutually incompatible. We propose cSOBER, a domain-agnostic prudent parallel active sampler for Bayesian optimisation, based on SOBER of Adachi et al. (2023). We consider infeasibility under unknown constraints as a type of integration error that we can estimate. We propose a theoretically-driven approach that propagates such error as a tolerance in the quadrature precision that automatically balances exploitation and exploration with the expected rejection rate. Moreover, our method flexibly accommodates diverse constraints and/or discrete and mixed spaces via adaptive tolerance, including conventional zero-risk cases. We show that cSOBER outperforms competitive baselines on diverse real-world blackbox-constrained problems, including safety-constrained drug discovery, and human-relationship-aware team optimisation over graph-structured space.

Word sense disambiguation (WSD), which aims to determine an appropriate sense for a target word given its context, is crucial for natural language understanding. Existing supervised methods treat WSD as a classification task and have achieved remarkable performance. However, they ignore uncertainty estimation (UE) in the real-world setting, where the data is always noisy and out of distribution. This paper extensively studies UE on the benchmark designed for WSD. Specifically, we first compare four uncertainty scores for a state-of-the-art WSD model and verify that the conventional predictive probabilities obtained at the end of the model are inadequate to quantify uncertainty. Then, we examine the capability of capturing data and model uncertainties by the model with the selected UE score on well-designed test scenarios and discover that the model reflects data uncertainty satisfactorily but underestimates model uncertainty. Furthermore, we explore numerous lexical properties that intrinsically affect data uncertainty and provide a detailed analysis of four critical aspects: the syntactic category, morphology, sense granularity, and semantic relations. The code is available at https://github.com/RyanLiut/WSD-UE.

We study grammar induction with mildly context-sensitive grammars for unsupervised discontinuous parsing. Using the probabilistic linear context-free rewriting system (LCFRS) formalism, our approach fixes the rule structure in advance and focuses on parameter learning with maximum likelihood. To reduce the computational complexity of both parsing and parameter estimation, we restrict the grammar formalism to LCFRS-2 (i.e., binary LCFRS with fan-out two) and further discard rules that require O(n^6) time to parse, reducing inference to O(n^5). We find that using a large number of nonterminals is beneficial and thus make use of tensor decomposition-based rank-space dynamic programming with an embedding-based parameterization of rule probabilities to scale up the number of nonterminals. Experiments on German and Dutch show that our approach is able to induce linguistically meaningful trees with continuous and discontinuous structures

Within the classical Condorcet error model for collective binary decisions, we establish equivalence results between elections and markets, showing that the alternative that would be selected by weighed majority voting (under specific weighting schemes) corresponds to the alternative with highest price in the equilibrium of the market (under specific assumptions on the market type). This makes it possible to implement specific weighted majority elections, which are known to have superior truth-tracking performance, through information markets and, crucially, without needing to elicit voters' competences.