We present working notes on transfer learning with semi-supervised dataset annotation for the BirdCLEF 2023 competition, focused on identifying African bird species in recorded soundscapes. Our approach utilizes existing off-the-shelf models, BirdNET and MixIT, to address representation and labeling challenges in the competition. We explore the embedding space learned by BirdNET and propose a process to derive an annotated dataset for supervised learning. Our experiments involve various models and feature engineering approaches to maximize performance on the competition leaderboard. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in classifying bird species and highlight the potential of transfer learning and semi-supervised dataset annotation in similar tasks.

Perception algorithms that provide estimates of their uncertainty are crucial to the development of autonomous robots that can operate in challenging and uncontrolled environments. Such perception algorithms provide the means for having risk-aware robots that reason about the probability of successfully completing a task when planning. There exist perception algorithms that come with models of their uncertainty; however, these models are often developed with assumptions, such as perfect data associations, that do not hold in the real world. Hence the resultant estimated uncertainty is a weak lower bound. To tackle this problem we present introspective perception - a novel approach for predicting accurate estimates of the uncertainty of perception algorithms deployed on mobile robots. By exploiting sensing redundancy and consistency constraints naturally present in the data collected by a mobile robot, introspective perception learns an empirical model of the error distribution of perception algorithms in the deployment environment and in an autonomously supervised manner. In this paper, we present the general theory of introspective perception and demonstrate successful implementations for two different perception tasks. We provide empirical results on challenging real-robot data for introspective stereo depth estimation and introspective visual simultaneous localization and mapping and show that they learn to predict their uncertainty with high accuracy and leverage this information to significantly reduce state estimation errors for an autonomous mobile robot.

Despite the popularity and success of deep learning, there is limited understanding of when, how, and why neural networks generalize to unseen examples. Since learning can be seen as extracting information from data, we formally study information captured by neural networks during training. Specifically, we start with viewing learning in presence of noisy labels from an information-theoretic perspective and derive a learning algorithm that limits label noise information in weights. We then define a notion of unique information that an individual sample provides to the training of a deep network, shedding some light on the behavior of neural networks on examples that are atypical, ambiguous, or belong to underrepresented subpopulations. We relate example informativeness to generalization by deriving nonvacuous generalization gap bounds. Finally, by studying knowledge distillation, we highlight the important role of data and label complexity in generalization. Overall, our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying neural network generalization.

In the recommender system community, this situation is known as the "cold-start" problem [7, 9], where rare ('cold') entities (e.g., We present Variational Bayesian Network (VBN) - a novel Bayesian unpopular items or new items that are introduced to the catalog) are entity representation learning model that utilizes hierarchical and often poorly represented due to insufficient statistics. In the natural relational side information and is particularly useful for modeling language processing community, where the focus is on learning entities in the "long-tail", where the data is scarce. VBN provides representations for words and phrases, a common mitigation is to better modeling for long-tail entities via two complementary mechanisms: increase the training set size by utilizing increasingly larger corpus First, VBN employs informative hierarchical priors that e.g., BERT [20, 39]. However, it was shown that even when enable information propagation between entities sharing common increasing the amount of co-occurrence data, the existence of rare, ancestors. Additionally, VBN models explicit relations between entities out-of-vocabulary entities persists [26, 50, 52, 53].

In the pursuit of efficient optimization of expensive-to-evaluate systems, this paper investigates a novel approach to Bayesian multi-objective and multi-fidelity (MOMF) optimization. Traditional optimization methods, while effective, often encounter prohibitively high costs in multi-dimensional optimizations of one or more objectives. Multi-fidelity approaches offer potential remedies by utilizing multiple, less costly information sources, such as low-resolution simulations. However, integrating these two strategies presents a significant challenge. We suggest the innovative use of a trust metric to support simultaneous optimization of multiple objectives and data sources. Our method modifies a multi-objective optimization policy to incorporate the trust gain per evaluation cost as one objective in a Pareto optimization problem, enabling simultaneous MOMF at lower costs. We present and compare two MOMF optimization methods: a holistic approach selecting both the input parameters and the trust parameter jointly, and a sequential approach for benchmarking. Through benchmarks on synthetic test functions, our approach is shown to yield significant cost reductions - up to an order of magnitude compared to pure multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, we find that joint optimization of the trust and objective domains outperforms addressing them in sequential manner. We validate our results using the use case of optimizing laser-plasma acceleration simulations, demonstrating our method's potential in Pareto optimization of high-cost black-box functions. Implementing these methods in existing Bayesian frameworks is simple, and they can be readily extended to batch optimization. With their capability to handle various continuous or discrete fidelity dimensions, our techniques offer broad applicability in solving simulation problems in fields such as plasma physics and fluid dynamics.

We propose a novel framework for discovering Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs) from data. The proposed approach combines the concepts of stochastic calculus, variational Bayes theory, and sparse learning. We propose the extended Kramers-Moyal expansion to express the drift and diffusion terms of an SPDE in terms of state responses and use Spike-and-Slab priors with sparse learning techniques to efficiently and accurately discover the underlying SPDEs. The proposed approach has been applied to three canonical SPDEs, (a) stochastic heat equation, (b) stochastic Allen-Cahn equation, and (c) stochastic Nagumo equation. Our results demonstrate that the proposed approach can accurately identify the underlying SPDEs with limited data. This is the first attempt at discovering SPDEs from data, and it has significant implications for various scientific applications, such as climate modeling, financial forecasting, and chemical kinetics.

PyVBMC is a Python implementation of the Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) algorithm for posterior and model inference for black-box computational models (Acerbi, 2018, 2020). VBMC is an approximate inference method designed for efficient parameter estimation and model assessment when model evaluations are mildly-to-very expensive (e.g., a second or more) and/or noisy. Specifically, VBMC computes: - a flexible (non-Gaussian) approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters, from which statistics and posterior samples can be easily extracted; - an approximation of the model evidence or marginal likelihood, a metric used for Bayesian model selection. PyVBMC can be applied to any computational or statistical model with up to roughly 10-15 continuous parameters, with the only requirement that the user can provide a Python function that computes the target log likelihood of the model, or an approximation thereof (e.g., an estimate of the likelihood obtained via simulation or Monte Carlo methods). PyVBMC is particularly effective when the model takes more than about a second per evaluation, with dramatic speed-ups of 1-2 orders of magnitude when compared to traditional approximate inference methods. Extensive benchmarks on both artificial test problems and a large number of real models from the computational sciences, particularly computational and cognitive neuroscience, show that VBMC generally - and often vastly - outperforms alternative methods for sample-efficient Bayesian inference, and is applicable to both exact and simulator-based models (Acerbi, 2018, 2019, 2020). PyVBMC brings this state-of-the-art inference algorithm to Python, along with an easy-to-use Pythonic interface for running the algorithm and manipulating and visualizing its results.

PyBADS is a Python implementation of the Bayesian Adaptive Direct Search (BADS) algorithm for fast and robust black-box optimization (Acerbi and Ma 2017). BADS is an optimization algorithm designed to efficiently solve difficult optimization problems where the objective function is rough (non-convex, non-smooth), mildly expensive (e.g., the function evaluation requires more than 0.1 seconds), possibly noisy, and gradient information is unavailable. With BADS, these issues are well addressed, making it an excellent choice for fitting computational models using methods such as maximum-likelihood estimation. The algorithm scales efficiently to black-box functions with up to $D \approx 20$ continuous input parameters and supports bounds or no constraints. PyBADS comes along with an easy-to-use Pythonic interface for running the algorithm and inspecting its results. PyBADS only requires the user to provide a Python function for evaluating the target function, and optionally other constraints. Extensive benchmarks on both artificial test problems and large real model-fitting problems models drawn from cognitive, behavioral and computational neuroscience, show that BADS performs on par with or better than many other common and state-of-the-art optimizers (Acerbi and Ma 2017), making it a general model-fitting tool which provides fast and robust solutions.

Is there a statistical difference between Naive Bayes and Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision for predicting software defects? By utilizing systematic literature review and meta-analysis, we are answering this question. We conducted a systematic literature review by establishing criteria to search and choose papers, resulting in five studies. After that, using the meta-data and forest-plots of five chosen papers, we conducted a meta-analysis to compare the two models. The results have shown that there is no significant statistical evidence that Naive Bayes perform differently from Random Forest in terms of recall, f-measure, and precision.

In this paper, we propose an innovative solution by constructing infinite tree-structured PGMs that correspond exactly to neural networks. Our research reveals that DNNs, during forward propagation, indeed perform approximations of PGM inference that are precise in this alternative PGM structure. Not only does our research complement existing studies that describe neural networks as kernel machines or infinite-sized Gaussian processes, it also elucidates a more direct approximation that DNNs make to exact inference in PGMs. Potential benefits include improved pedagogy and interpretation of DNNs, and algorithms that can merge the strengths of PGMs and DNNs.