Federated learning is a decentralized and privacy-preserving technique that enables multiple clients to collaborate with a server to learn a global model without exposing their private data. However, the presence of statistical heterogeneity among clients poses a challenge, as the global model may struggle to perform well on each client's specific task. To address this issue, we introduce a new perspective on personalized federated learning through Amortized Bayesian Meta-Learning. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithm called \emph{FedABML}, which employs hierarchical variational inference across clients. The global prior aims to capture representations of common intrinsic structures from heterogeneous clients, which can then be transferred to their respective tasks and aid in the generation of accurate client-specific approximate posteriors through a few local updates. Our theoretical analysis provides an upper bound on the average generalization error and guarantees the generalization performance on unseen data. Finally, several empirical results are implemented to demonstrate that \emph{FedABML} outperforms several competitive baselines.

For safety, AI systems in health undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth that is assumed certain. However, this is actually not the case and the ground truth may be uncertain. Unfortunately, this is largely ignored in standard evaluation of AI models but can have severe consequences such as overestimating the future performance. To avoid this, we measure the effects of ground truth uncertainty, which we assume decomposes into two main components: annotation uncertainty which stems from the lack of reliable annotations, and inherent uncertainty due to limited observational information. This ground truth uncertainty is ignored when estimating the ground truth by deterministically aggregating annotations, e.g., by majority voting or averaging. In contrast, we propose a framework where aggregation is done using a statistical model. Specifically, we frame aggregation of annotations as posterior inference of so-called plausibilities, representing distributions over classes in a classification setting, subject to a hyper-parameter encoding annotator reliability. Based on this model, we propose a metric for measuring annotation uncertainty and provide uncertainty-adjusted metrics for performance evaluation. We present a case study applying our framework to skin condition classification from images where annotations are provided in the form of differential diagnoses. The deterministic adjudication process called inverse rank normalization (IRN) from previous work ignores ground truth uncertainty in evaluation. Instead, we present two alternative statistical models: a probabilistic version of IRN and a Plackett-Luce-based model. We find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard IRN-based evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates.

Knowing the features of a complex system that are highly relevant to a particular target variable is of fundamental interest in many areas of science. Existing approaches are often limited to linear settings, sometimes lack guarantees, and in most cases, do not scale to the problem at hand, in particular to images. We propose DRCFS, a doubly robust feature selection method for identifying the causal features even in nonlinear and high dimensional settings. We provide theoretical guarantees, illustrate necessary conditions for our assumptions, and perform extensive experiments across a wide range of simulated and semi-synthetic datasets. DRCFS significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, selecting robust features even in challenging highly non-linear and high-dimensional problems.

Batch Bayesian optimisation and Bayesian quadrature have been shown to be sample-efficient methods of performing optimisation and quadrature where expensive-to-evaluate objective functions can be queried in parallel. However, current methods do not scale to large batch sizes -- a frequent desideratum in practice (e.g. drug discovery or simulation-based inference). We present a novel algorithm, SOBER, which permits scalable and diversified batch global optimisation and quadrature with arbitrary acquisition functions and kernels over discrete and mixed spaces. The key to our approach is to reformulate batch selection for global optimisation as a quadrature problem, which relaxes acquisition function maximisation (non-convex) to kernel recombination (convex). Bridging global optimisation and quadrature can efficiently solve both tasks by balancing the merits of exploitative Bayesian optimisation and explorative Bayesian quadrature. We show that SOBER outperforms 11 competitive baselines on 12 synthetic and diverse real-world tasks.

From a service perspective, Multi-Source Domain Adaptation (MSDA) is a promising scenario to adapt a deployed model to a client's dataset. It can provide adaptation without a target label and support the case where a source dataset is constructed from multiple domains. However, it is impractical, wherein its training heavily relies on prior domain information of the multi-source dataset -- how many domains exist and the domain label of each data sample. Moreover, MSDA requires both source and target datasets simultaneously (physically), causing storage limitations on the client device or data privacy issues by transferring client data to a server. For a more practical scenario of model adaptation from a service provider's point of view, we relax these constraints and present a novel problem scenario of Three-Free Domain Adaptation, namely TFDA, where 1) target labels, 2) source dataset, and mostly 3) source domain information (domain labels + the number of domains) are unavailable. Under the problem scenario, we propose a practical adaptation framework called FREEDOM. It leverages the power of the generative model, disentangling data into class and style aspects, where the style is defined as the class-independent information from the source data and designed with a nonparametric Bayesian approach. In the adaptation stage, FREEDOM aims to match the source class distribution with the target's under the philosophy that class distribution is consistent even if the style is different; after then, only part of the classification model is deployed as a personalized network. As a result, FREEDOM achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performance even without domain information, with reduced final model size on the target side, independent of the number of source domains.

Localizing mobile robotic nodes in indoor and GPS-denied environments is a complex problem, particularly in dynamic, unstructured scenarios where traditional cameras and LIDAR-based sensing and localization modalities may fail. Alternatively, wireless signal-based localization has been extensively studied in the literature yet primarily focuses on fingerprinting and feature-matching paradigms, requiring dedicated environment-specific offline data collection. We propose an online robot localization algorithm enabled by collaborative wireless sensor nodes to remedy these limitations. Our approach's core novelty lies in obtaining the Collaborative Direction of Arrival (CDOA) of wireless signals by exploiting the geometric features and collaboration between wireless nodes. The CDOA is combined with the Expectation Maximization (EM) and Particle Filter (PF) algorithms to calculate the Gaussian probability of the node's location with high efficiency and accuracy. The algorithm relies on RSSI-only data, making it ubiquitous to resource-constrained devices. We theoretically analyze the approach and extensively validate the proposed method's consistency, accuracy, and computational efficiency in simulations, real-world public datasets, as well as real robot demonstrations. The results validate the method's real-time computational capability and demonstrate considerably-high centimeter-level localization accuracy, outperforming relevant state-of-the-art localization approaches.

During the past decade, metal additive manufacturing (MAM) has experienced significant developments and gained much attention due to its ability to fabricate complex parts, manufacture products with functionally graded materials, minimize waste, and enable low-cost customization. Despite these advantages, predicting the impact of processing parameters on the characteristics of an MAM printed clad is challenging due to the complex nature of MAM processes. Machine learning (ML) techniques can help connect the physics underlying the process and processing parameters to the clad characteristics. In this study, we introduce a hybrid approach which involves utilizing the data provided by a calibrated multi-physics computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model and experimental research for preparing the essential big dataset, and then uses a comprehensive framework consisting of various ML models to predict and understand clad characteristics. We first compile an extensive dataset by fusing experimental data into the data generated using the developed CFD model for this study. This dataset comprises critical clad characteristics, including geometrical features such as width, height, and depth, labels identifying clad quality, and processing parameters. Second, we use two sets of processing parameters for training the ML models: machine setting parameters and physics-aware parameters, along with versatile ML models and reliable evaluation metrics to create a comprehensive and scalable learning framework for predicting clad geometry and quality. This framework can serve as a basis for clad characteristics control and process optimization. The framework resolves many challenges of conventional modeling methods in MAM by solving t the issue of data scarcity using a hybrid approach and introducing an efficient, accurate, and scalable platform for clad characteristics prediction and optimization.

We study actively labeling streaming data, where an active learner is faced with a stream of data points and must carefully choose which of these points to label via an expensive experiment. Such problems frequently arise in applications such as healthcare and astronomy. We first study a setting when the data's inputs belong to one of $K$ discrete distributions and formalize this problem via a loss that captures the labeling cost and the prediction error. When the labeling cost is $B$, our algorithm, which chooses to label a point if the uncertainty is larger than a time and cost dependent threshold, achieves a worst-case upper bound of $\widetilde{O}(B^{\frac{1}{3}} K^{\frac{1}{3}} T^{\frac{2}{3}})$ on the loss after $T$ rounds. We also provide a more nuanced upper bound which demonstrates that the algorithm can adapt to the arrival pattern, and achieves better performance when the arrival pattern is more favorable. We complement both upper bounds with matching lower bounds. We next study this problem when the inputs belong to a continuous domain and the output of the experiment is a smooth function with bounded RKHS norm. After $T$ rounds in $d$ dimensions, we show that the loss is bounded by $\widetilde{O}(B^{\frac{1}{d+3}} T^{\frac{d+2}{d+3}})$ in an RKHS with a squared exponential kernel and by $\widetilde{O}(B^{\frac{1}{2d+3}} T^{\frac{2d+2}{2d+3}})$ in an RKHS with a Mat\'ern kernel. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our method outperforms other baselines in several synthetic experiments and two real experiments in medicine and astronomy.

Since the success of Residual Network(ResNet), many of architectures of Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs) have adopted skip connection. While the generalization performance of CNN with skip connection has been explained within the framework of Ensemble Learning, the dependency on the number of parameters have not been revealed. In this paper, we show that Bayesian free energy of Convolutional Neural Network both with and without skip connection in Bayesian learning. The upper bound of free energy of Bayesian CNN with skip connection does not depend on the oveparametrization and, the generalization error of Bayesian CNN has similar property.

Trajectory prediction modules are key enablers for safe and efficient planning of autonomous vehicles (AVs), particularly in highly interactive traffic scenarios. Recently, learning-based trajectory predictors have experienced considerable success in providing state-of-the-art performance due to their ability to learn multimodal behaviors of other agents from data. In this paper, we present an algorithm called multi-predictor fusion (MPF) that augments the performance of learning-based predictors by imbuing them with motion planners that are tasked with satisfying logic-based rules. MPF probabilistically combines learning- and rule-based predictors by mixing trajectories from both standalone predictors in accordance with a belief distribution that reflects the online performance of each predictor. In our results, we show that MPF outperforms the two standalone predictors on various metrics and delivers the most consistent performance.