We present a data-driven emulator, stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heatwaves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heatwaves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heatwaves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalised extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with stochastic weather generator is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heatwaves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.

We introduce the nested stochastic block model (NSBM) to cluster a collection of networks while simultaneously detecting communities within each network. NSBM has several appealing features including the ability to work on unlabeled networks with potentially different node sets, the flexibility to model heterogeneous communities, and the means to automatically select the number of classes for the networks and the number of communities within each network. This is accomplished via a Bayesian model, with a novel application of the nested Dirichlet process (NDP) as a prior to jointly model the between-network and within-network clusters. The dependency introduced by the network data creates nontrivial challenges for the NDP, especially in the development of efficient samplers. For posterior inference, we propose several Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms including a standard Gibbs sampler, a collapsed Gibbs sampler, and two blocked Gibbs samplers that ultimately return two levels of clustering labels from both within and across the networks. Extensive simulation studies are carried out which demonstrate that the model provides very accurate estimates of both levels of the clustering structure. We also apply our model to two social network datasets that cannot be analyzed using any previous method in the literature due to the anonymity of the nodes and the varying number of nodes in each network.

Music can evoke various emotions, and with the advancement of technology, it has become more accessible to people. Bangla music, which portrays different human emotions, lacks sufficient research. The authors of this article aim to analyze Bangla songs and classify their moods based on the lyrics. To achieve this, this research has compiled a dataset of 4000 Bangla song lyrics, genres, and used Natural Language Processing and the Bert Algorithm to analyze the data. Among the 4000 songs, 1513 songs are represented for the sad mood, 1362 for the romantic mood, 886 for happiness, and the rest 239 are classified as relaxation. By embedding the lyrics of the songs, the authors have classified the songs into four moods: Happy, Sad, Romantic, and Relaxed. This research is crucial as it enables a multi-class classification of songs' moods, making the music more relatable to people's emotions. The article presents the automated result of the four moods accurately derived from the song lyrics.

In many reinforcement learning tasks, the agent has to learn to interact with many objects of different types and generalize to unseen combinations and numbers of objects. Often a task is a composition of previously learned tasks (e.g. block stacking). These are examples of compositional generalization, in which we compose object-centric representations to solve complex tasks. Recent works have shown the benefits of object-factored representations and hierarchical abstractions for improving sample efficiency in these settings. On the other hand, these methods do not fully exploit the benefits of factorization in terms of object attributes. In this paper, we address this opportunity and introduce the Dynamic Attribute FacTored RL (DAFT-RL) framework. In DAFT-RL, we leverage object-centric representation learning to extract objects from visual inputs. We learn to classify them in classes and infer their latent parameters. For each class of object, we learn a class template graph that describes how the dynamics and reward of an object of this class factorize according to its attributes. We also learn an interaction pattern graph that describes how objects of different classes interact with each other at the attribute level. Through these graphs and a dynamic interaction graph that models the interactions between objects, we can learn a policy that can then be directly applied in a new environment by just estimating the interactions and latent parameters. We evaluate DAFT-RL in three benchmark datasets and show our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art in generalizing across unseen objects with varying attributes and latent parameters, as well as in the composition of previously learned tasks.

We propose a general framework for decoding quantum error-correcting codes with generative modeling. The model utilizes autoregressive neural networks, specifically Transformers, to learn the joint probability of logical operators and syndromes. This training is in an unsupervised way, without the need for labeled training data, and is thus referred to as pre-training. After the pre-training, the model can efficiently compute the likelihood of logical operators for any given syndrome, using maximum likelihood decoding. It can directly generate the most-likely logical operators with computational complexity $\mathcal O(2k)$ in the number of logical qubits $k$, which is significantly better than the conventional maximum likelihood decoding algorithms that require $\mathcal O(4^k)$ computation. Based on the pre-trained model, we further propose refinement to achieve more accurately the likelihood of logical operators for a given syndrome by directly sampling the stabilizer operators. We perform numerical experiments on stabilizer codes with small code distances, using both depolarizing error models and error models with correlated noise. The results show that our approach provides significantly better decoding accuracy than the minimum weight perfect matching and belief-propagation-based algorithms. Our framework is general and can be applied to any error model and quantum codes with different topologies such as surface codes and quantum LDPC codes. Furthermore, it leverages the parallelization capabilities of GPUs, enabling simultaneous decoding of a large number of syndromes. Our approach sheds light on the efficient and accurate decoding of quantum error-correcting codes using generative artificial intelligence and modern computational power.

Text generative models trained via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) suffer from the notorious exposure bias problem, and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are shown to have potential to tackle this problem. Existing language GANs adopt estimators like REINFORCE or continuous relaxations to model word probabilities. The inherent limitations of such estimators lead current models to rely on pre-training techniques (MLE pre-training or pre-trained embeddings). Representation modeling methods which are free from those limitations, however, are seldomly explored because of their poor performance in previous attempts. Our analyses reveal that invalid sampling methods and unhealthy gradients are the main contributors to such unsatisfactory performance. In this work, we present two techniques to tackle these problems: dropout sampling and fully normalized LSTM. Based on these two techniques, we propose InitialGAN whose parameters are randomly initialized in full. Besides, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Least Coverage Rate, to better evaluate the quality of generated samples. The experimental results demonstrate that InitialGAN outperforms both MLE and other compared models. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time a language GAN can outperform MLE without using any pre-training techniques.

In recent years, word embeddings have been widely used to measure biases in texts. Even if they have proven to be effective in detecting a wide variety of biases, metrics based on word embeddings lack transparency and interpretability. We analyze an alternative PMI-based metric to quantify biases in texts. It can be expressed as a function of conditional probabilities, which provides a simple interpretation in terms of word co-occurrences. We also prove that it can be approximated by an odds ratio, which allows estimating confidence intervals and statistical significance of textual biases. This approach produces similar results to metrics based on word embeddings when capturing gender gaps of the real world embedded in large corpora.

Cyber threat attribution is the process of identifying the actor of an attack incident in cyberspace. An accurate and timely threat attribution plays an important role in deterring future attacks by applying appropriate and timely defense mechanisms. Manual analysis of attack patterns gathered by honeypot deployments, intrusion detection systems, firewalls, and via trace-back procedures is still the preferred method of security analysts for cyber threat attribution. Such attack patterns are low-level Indicators of Compromise (IOC). They represent Tactics, Techniques, Procedures (TTP), and software tools used by the adversaries in their campaigns. The adversaries rarely re-use them. They can also be manipulated, resulting in false and unfair attribution. To empirically evaluate and compare the effectiveness of both kinds of IOC, there are two problems that need to be addressed. The first problem is that in recent research works, the ineffectiveness of low-level IOC for cyber threat attribution has been discussed intuitively. An empirical evaluation for the measure of the effectiveness of low-level IOC based on a real-world dataset is missing. The second problem is that the available dataset for high-level IOC has a single instance for each predictive class label that cannot be used directly for training machine learning models. To address these problems in this research work, we empirically evaluate the effectiveness of low-level IOC based on a real-world dataset that is specifically built for comparative analysis with high-level IOC. The experimental results show that the high-level IOC trained models effectively attribute cyberattacks with an accuracy of 95% as compared to the low-level IOC trained models where accuracy is 40%.

Algorithmic and data-driven decisions and recommendations are commonly used in high-stakes decision-making settings such as criminal justice, medicine, and public policy. We investigate whether it would have been possible to improve a security assessment algorithm employed during the Vietnam War, using outcomes measured immediately after its introduction in late 1969. This empirical application raises several methodological challenges that frequently arise in high-stakes algorithmic decision-making. First, before implementing a new algorithm, it is essential to characterize and control the risk of yielding worse outcomes than the existing algorithm. Second, the existing algorithm is deterministic, and learning a new algorithm requires transparent extrapolation. Third, the existing algorithm involves discrete decision tables that are common but difficult to optimize over. To address these challenges, we introduce the Average Conditional Risk (ACRisk), which first quantifies the risk that a new algorithmic policy leads to worse outcomes for subgroups of individual units and then averages this over the distribution of subgroups. We also propose a Bayesian policy learning framework that maximizes the posterior expected value while controlling the posterior expected ACRisk. This framework separates the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects from policy optimization, enabling flexible estimation of effects and optimization over complex policy classes. We characterize the resulting chance-constrained optimization problem as a constrained linear programming problem. Our analysis shows that compared to the actual algorithm used during the Vietnam War, the learned algorithm assesses most regions as more secure and emphasizes economic and political factors over military factors.

Stellar ages are critical building blocks of evolutionary models, but challenging to measure for low mass main sequence stars. An unexplored solution in this regime is the application of probabilistic machine learning methods to gyrochronology, a stellar dating technique that is uniquely well suited for these stars. While accurate analytical gyrochronological models have proven challenging to develop, here we apply conditional normalizing flows to photometric data from open star clusters, and demonstrate that a data-driven approach can constrain gyrochronological ages with a precision comparable to other standard techniques. We evaluate the flow results in the context of a Bayesian framework, and show that our inferred ages recover literature values well. This work demonstrates the potential of a probabilistic data-driven solution to widen the applicability of gyrochronological stellar dating.