We present a new framework called KorraAI for conceiving and building embodied conversational agents (ECAs). Our framework models ECAs' behavior considering contextual information, for example, about environment and interaction time, and uncertain information provided by the human interaction partner. Moreover, agents built with KorraAI can show proactive behavior, as they can initiate interactions with human partners. For these purposes, KorraAI exploits probabilistic programming. Probabilistic models in KorraAI are used to model its behavior and interactions with the user. They enable adaptation to the user's preferences and a certain degree of indeterminism in the ECAs to achieve more natural behavior. Human-like internal states, such as moods, preferences, and emotions (e.g., surprise), can be modeled in KorraAI with distributions and Bayesian networks. These models can evolve over time, even without interaction with the user. ECA models are implemented as plugins and share a common interface. This enables ECA designers to focus more on the character they are modeling and less on the technical details, as well as to store and exchange ECA models. Several applications of KorraAI ECAs are possible, such as virtual sales agents, customer service agents, virtual companions, entertainers, or tutors.

The Internet of Things (IoT) integrates more than billions of intelligent devices over the globe with the capability of communicating with other connected devices with little to no human intervention. IoT enables data aggregation and analysis on a large scale to improve life quality in many domains. In particular, data collected by IoT contain a tremendous amount of information for anomaly detection. The heterogeneous nature of IoT is both a challenge and an opportunity for cybersecurity. Traditional approaches in cybersecurity monitoring often require different kinds of data pre-processing and handling for various data types, which might be problematic for datasets that contain heterogeneous features. However, heterogeneous types of network devices can often capture a more diverse set of signals than a single type of device readings, which is particularly useful for anomaly detection. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on using ensemble machine learning methods for enhancing IoT cybersecurity via anomaly detection. Rather than using one single machine learning model, ensemble learning combines the predictive power from multiple models, enhancing their predictive accuracy in heterogeneous datasets rather than using one single machine learning model. We propose a unified framework with ensemble learning that utilises Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation to adapt to a network environment that contains multiple IoT sensor readings. Experimentally, we illustrate their high predictive power when compared to traditional methods.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

Positive unlabeled learning is a binary classification problem with positive and unlabeled data. It is common in domains where negative labels are costly or impossible to obtain, e.g., medicine and personalized advertising. Most approaches to positive unlabeled learning apply to specific data types (e.g., images, categorical data) and can not generate new positive and negative samples. This work introduces a feature-space distance-based tensor network approach to the positive unlabeled learning problem. The presented method is not domain specific and significantly improves the state-of-the-art results on the MNIST image and 15 categorical/mixed datasets. The trained tensor network model is also a generative model and enables the generation of new positive and negative instances.

We propose a novel Bayesian-Optimistic Frequentist Upper Confidence Bound (BOF-UCB) algorithm for stochastic contextual linear bandits in non-stationary environments. This unique combination of Bayesian and frequentist principles enhances adaptability and performance in dynamic settings. The BOF-UCB algorithm utilizes sequential Bayesian updates to infer the posterior distribution of the unknown regression parameter, and subsequently employs a frequentist approach to compute the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) by maximizing the expected reward over the posterior distribution. We provide theoretical guarantees of BOF-UCB's performance and demonstrate its effectiveness in balancing exploration and exploitation on synthetic datasets and classical control tasks in a reinforcement learning setting. Our results show that BOF-UCB outperforms existing methods, making it a promising solution for sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments.

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are widely used to cluster observations. However, one major drawback of the approach is that the estimated partition often presents unbalanced clusters' frequencies with only a few dominating clusters and a large number of sparsely-populated ones. This feature translates into results that are often uninterpretable unless we accept to ignore a relevant number of observations and clusters. Interpreting the posterior distribution as penalized likelihood, we show how the unbalance can be explained as a direct consequence of the cost functions involved in estimating the partition. In light of our findings, we propose a novel Bayesian estimator of the clustering configuration. The proposed estimator is equivalent to a post-processing procedure that reduces the number of sparsely-populated clusters and enhances interpretability. The procedure takes the form of entropy-regularization of the Bayesian estimate. While being computationally convenient with respect to alternative strategies, it is also theoretically justified as a correction to the Bayesian loss function used for point estimation and, as such, can be applied to any posterior distribution of clusters, regardless of the specific model used.

Traffic simulation software is used by transportation researchers and engineers to design and evaluate changes to roadways. These simulators are driven by models of microscopic driver behavior from which macroscopic measures like flow and congestion can be derived. Many models are designed for a subset of possible traffic scenarios and roadway configurations, while others have no explicit constraints on their application. Work zones (WZs) are one scenario for which no model to date has reproduced realistic driving behavior. This makes it difficult to optimize for safety and other metrics when designing a WZ. The Federal Highway Administration commissioned the USDOT Volpe Center to develop a car-following (CF) model for use in microscopic simulators that can capture and reproduce driver behavior accurately within and outside of WZs. Volpe also performed a naturalistic driving study to collect telematics data from vehicles driven on roads with WZs for use in model calibration. During model development, Volpe researchers observed difficulties in calibrating their model, leaving them to question whether there existed flaws in their model, in the data, or in the procedure used to calibrate the model using the data. In this thesis, I use Bayesian methods for data analysis and parameter estimation to explore and, where possible, address these questions. First, I use Bayesian inference to measure the sufficiency of the size of the data set. Second, I compare the procedure and results of the genetic algorithm based calibration performed by the Volpe researchers with those of Bayesian calibration. Third, I explore the benefits of modeling CF hierarchically. Finally, I apply what was learned in the first three phases using an established CF model, Wiedemann 99, to the probabilistic modeling of the Volpe model. Validation is performed using information criteria as an estimate of predictive accuracy.

Large offline learning-based models have enabled robots to successfully interact with objects for a wide variety of tasks. However, these models rely on fairly consistent structured environments. For more unstructured environments, an online learning component is necessary to gather and estimate information about objects in the environment in order to successfully interact with them. Unfortunately, online learning methods like Bayesian non-parametric models struggle with changes in the environment, which is often the desired outcome of interaction-based tasks. We propose using an object-centric representation for interactive online learning. This representation is generated by transforming the robot's actions into the object's coordinate frame. We demonstrate how switching to this task-relevant space improves our ability to reason with the training data collected online, enabling scalable online learning of robot-object interactions. We showcase our method by successfully navigating a manipulator arm through an environment with multiple unknown objects without violating interaction-based constraints.

The transferability of adversarial examples across deep neural networks (DNNs) is the crux of many black-box attacks. Many prior efforts have been devoted to improving the transferability via increasing the diversity in inputs of some substitute models. In this paper, by contrast, we opt for the diversity in substitute models and advocate to attack a Bayesian model for achieving desirable transferability. Deriving from the Bayesian formulation, we develop a principled strategy for possible finetuning, which can be combined with many off-the-shelf Gaussian posterior approximations over DNN parameters. Extensive experiments have been conducted to verify the effectiveness of our method, on common benchmark datasets, and the results demonstrate that our method outperforms recent state-of-the-arts by large margins (roughly 19% absolute increase in average attack success rate on ImageNet), and, by combining with these recent methods, further performance gain can be obtained. The adversarial vulnerability of deep neural networks (DNNs) has attracted great attention (Szegedy et al., 2014; Goodfellow et al., 2015; Papernot et al., 2016; Carlini & Wagner, 2017; Madry et al., 2018; Athalye et al., 2018). It has been demonstrated that the prediction of state-of-the-art DNNs can be arbitrarily altered by adding perturbations, even imperceptible to human eyes, to their inputs. Threat models concerning adversarial examples can be divided into white-box and black-box ones according to the amount of information (of victim models) being exposed to the attacker. In blackbox attacks, where the attacker can hardly get access to the architecture and parameters of the victim model, the transferability of adversarial examples is often relied on, given the fact that adversarial examples crafted on a substitute model can sometimes fool other models as well.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) Sutton and Barto [2018] and Probabilistic planning Puterman [2014] are two research branches that address stochastic problems, often under the Markov assumption for state dynamics. The planning approach requires a given model, while the learning approach improves through repeated interaction with an environment, which can be viewed as a black box. Thus, the tools and the benchmarks for these two branches have grown apart. Learning agents do not require to be able to simulate model-based transitions, and thus frameworks such as OpenAI Gym Brockman et al. [2016] have become a standard, serving also as an interface for third-party benchmarks such as Todorov et al. [2012], Bellemare et al. [2013] and more. As the model is not necessary for solving the learning problem, the environments are hard-coded in a programming language. This has several downsides; if one does wish to see the model describing the environment, it has to be reverse-engineered from the environment framework, complex problems can result in a significant development period, code bugs may make their way into the environment and finally, there is no clean way to verify the model or reuse it directly. Thus, the creation of a verified acceptable benchmark is a challenging task. Planning agents on the other hand can interact with an environment Sanner [2010a], but in many cases simulate the model within the planning agent in order to solve the problem Keller and Eyerich [2012]. The planning community has also come up with formal description languages for various types of problems; these include the Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL) Aeronautiques et al. [1998] for classical planning problems, PDDL2.1 Fox and Long [2003] for problems involving time and continuous variables, PPDDL Bryce and Buet [2008] for classical planning problems with action probabilistic effects and rewards, and Relational Dynamic Influence Diagram Language (RDDL)