Probabilistic Graphical Models are often used to understand dynamics of a system. They can model relationships between features (nodes) and the underlying distribution. Theoretically these models can represent very complex dependency functions, but in practice often simplifying assumptions are made due to computational limitations associated with graph operations. In this work we introduce Neural Graphical Models (NGMs) which attempt to represent complex feature dependencies with reasonable computational costs. Given a graph of feature relationships and corresponding samples, we capture the dependency structure between the features along with their complex function representations by using a neural network as a multi-task learning framework. We provide efficient learning, inference and sampling algorithms. NGMs can fit generic graph structures including directed, undirected and mixed-edge graphs as well as support mixed input data types. We present empirical studies that show NGMs' capability to represent Gaussian graphical models, perform inference analysis of a lung cancer data and extract insights from a real world infant mortality data provided by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Neural compression is the application of neural networks and other machine learning methods to data compression. Recent advances in statistical machine learning have opened up new possibilities for data compression, allowing compression algorithms to be learned end-to-end from data using powerful generative models such as normalizing flows, variational autoencoders, diffusion probabilistic models, and generative adversarial networks. The present article aims to introduce this field of research to a broader machine learning audience by reviewing the necessary background in information theory (e.g., entropy coding, rate-distortion theory) and computer vision (e.g., image quality assessment, perceptual metrics), and providing a curated guide through the essential ideas and methods in the literature thus far.

As phasor measurement units (PMUs) are usually placed on the highest voltage buses, many lower voltage levels of the bulk power system are not observed by them. This lack of visibility makes time-synchronized state estimation of the full system a challenging problem. We propose a Deep Neural network-based State Estimator (DeNSE) to overcome this problem. The DeNSE employs a Bayesian framework to indirectly combine inferences drawn from slow timescale but widespread supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data with fast timescale but local PMU data to attain sub-second situational awareness of the entire system. The practical utility of the proposed approach is demonstrated by considering topology changes, non-Gaussian measurement noise, and bad data detection and correction. The results obtained using the IEEE 118-bus system show the superiority of the DeNSE over a purely SCADA state estimator, a SCADA-PMU hybrid state estimator, and a PMU-only linear state estimator from a techno-economic viability perspective. Lastly, the scalability of the DeNSE is proven by performing state estimation on a large and realistic 2000-bus Synthetic Texas system.

This paper studies the binary classification of unbounded data from ${\mathbb R}^d$ generated under Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) using deep ReLU neural networks. We obtain $\unicode{x2013}$ for the first time $\unicode{x2013}$ non-asymptotic upper bounds and convergence rates of the excess risk (excess misclassification error) for the classification without restrictions on model parameters. The convergence rates we derive do not depend on dimension $d$, demonstrating that deep ReLU networks can overcome the curse of dimensionality in classification. While the majority of existing generalization analysis of classification algorithms relies on a bounded domain, we consider an unbounded domain by leveraging the analyticity and fast decay of Gaussian distributions. To facilitate our analysis, we give a novel approximation error bound for general analytic functions using ReLU networks, which may be of independent interest. Gaussian distributions can be adopted nicely to model data arising in applications, e.g., speeches, images, and texts; our results provide a theoretical verification of the observed efficiency of deep neural networks in practical classification problems.

We study the problem of regression in a generalized linear model (GLM) with multiple signals and latent variables. This model, which we call a matrix GLM, covers many widely studied problems in statistical learning, including mixed linear regression, max-affine regression, and mixture-of-experts. In mixed linear regression, each observation comes from one of $L$ signal vectors (regressors), but we do not know which one; in max-affine regression, each observation comes from the maximum of $L$ affine functions, each defined via a different signal vector. The goal in all these problems is to estimate the signals, and possibly some of the latent variables, from the observations. We propose a novel approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm for estimation in a matrix GLM and rigorously characterize its performance in the high-dimensional limit. This characterization is in terms of a state evolution recursion, which allows us to precisely compute performance measures such as the asymptotic mean-squared error. The state evolution characterization can be used to tailor the AMP algorithm to take advantage of any structural information known about the signals. Using state evolution, we derive an optimal choice of AMP `denoising' functions that minimizes the estimation error in each iteration. The theoretical results are validated by numerical simulations for mixed linear regression, max-affine regression, and mixture-of-experts. For max-affine regression, we propose an algorithm that combines AMP with expectation-maximization to estimate intercepts of the model along with the signals. The numerical results show that AMP significantly outperforms other estimators for mixed linear regression and max-affine regression in most parameter regimes.

This paper develops conformal inference methods to construct a confidence interval for the frequency of a queried object in a very large discrete data set, based on a sketch with a lower memory footprint. This approach requires no knowledge of the data distribution and can be combined with any sketching algorithm, including but not limited to the renowned count-min sketch, the count-sketch, and variations thereof. After explaining how to achieve marginal coverage for exchangeable random queries, we extend our solution to provide stronger inferences that can account for the discreteness of the data and for heterogeneous query frequencies, increasing also robustness to possible distribution shifts. These results are facilitated by a novel conformal calibration technique that guarantees valid coverage for a large fraction of distinct random queries. Finally, we show our methods have improved empirical performance compared to existing frequentist and Bayesian alternatives in simulations as well as in examples of text and SARS-CoV-2 DNA data.

We propose a novel multivariate nonparametric multiple change point detection method using classifiers. We construct a classifier log-likelihood ratio that uses class probability predictions to compare different change point configurations. We propose a computationally feasible search method that is particularly well suited for random forests, denoted by changeforest. However, the method can be paired with any classifier that yields class probability predictions, which we illustrate by also using a k-nearest neighbor classifier. We prove that it consistently locates change points in single change point settings when paired with a consistent classifier. Our proposed method changeforest achieves improved empirical performance in an extensive simulation study compared to existing multivariate nonparametric change point detection methods. An efficient implementation of our method is made available for R, Python, and Rust users in the changeforest software package.

Various approaches based on supervised or unsupervised machine learning (ML) have been proposed for evaluating IoT data trust. However, assessing their real-world efficacy is hard mainly due to the lack of related publicly-available datasets that can be used for benchmarking. Since obtaining such datasets is challenging, we propose a data synthesis method, called random walk infilling (RWI), to augment IoT time-series datasets by synthesizing untrustworthy data from existing trustworthy data. Thus, RWI enables us to create labeled datasets that can be used to develop and validate ML models for IoT data trust evaluation. We also extract new features from IoT time-series sensor data that effectively capture its auto-correlation as well as its cross-correlation with the data of the neighboring (peer) sensors. These features can be used to learn ML models for recognizing the trustworthiness of IoT sensor data. Equipped with our synthesized ground-truth-labeled datasets and informative correlation-based feature, we conduct extensive experiments to critically examine various approaches to evaluating IoT data trust via ML. The results reveal that commonly used ML-based approaches to IoT data trust evaluation, which rely on unsupervised cluster analysis to assign trust labels to unlabeled data, perform poorly. This poor performance can be attributed to the underlying unsubstantiated assumption that clustering provides reliable labels for data trust, a premise that is found to be untenable. The results also show that the ML models learned from datasets augmented via RWI while using the proposed features generalize well to unseen data and outperform existing related approaches. Moreover, we observe that a semi-supervised ML approach that requires only about 10% of the data labeled offers competitive performance while being practically more appealing compared to the fully-supervised approaches.

Tensor factorizations (TF) are powerful tools for the efficient representation and analysis of multidimensional data. However, classic TF methods based on maximum likelihood estimation underperform when applied to zero-inflated count data, such as single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. Additionally, the stochasticity inherent in TFs results in factors that vary across repeated runs, making interpretation and reproducibility of the results challenging. In this paper, we introduce Zero Inflated Poisson Tensor Factorization (ZIPTF), a novel approach for the factorization of high-dimensional count data with excess zeros. To address the challenge of stochasticity, we introduce Consensus Zero Inflated Poisson Tensor Factorization (C-ZIPTF), which combines ZIPTF with a consensus-based meta-analysis. We evaluate our proposed ZIPTF and C-ZIPTF on synthetic zero-inflated count data and synthetic and real scRNA-seq data. ZIPTF consistently outperforms baseline matrix and tensor factorization methods in terms of reconstruction accuracy for zero-inflated data. When the probability of excess zeros is high, ZIPTF achieves up to $2.4\times$ better accuracy. Additionally, C-ZIPTF significantly improves the consistency and accuracy of the factorization. When tested on both synthetic and real scRNA-seq data, ZIPTF and C-ZIPTF consistently recover known and biologically meaningful gene expression programs.

Active Inference is a recent framework for modeling planning under uncertainty. Empirical and theoretical work have now begun to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and how it might be improved. A recent extension - the sophisticated inference (SI) algorithm - improves performance on multi-step planning problems through recursive decision tree search. However, little work to date has been done to compare SI to other established planning algorithms. SI was also developed with a focus on inference as opposed to learning. The present paper has two aims. First, we compare performance of SI to Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) schemes designed to solve similar problems. Second, we present an extension of SI - sophisticated learning (SL) - that more fully incorporates active learning during planning. SL maintains beliefs about how model parameters would change under the future observations expected under each policy. This allows a form of counterfactual retrospective inference in which the agent considers what could be learned from current or past observations given different future observations. To accomplish these aims, we make use of a novel, biologically inspired environment designed to highlight the problem structure for which SL offers a unique solution. Here, an agent must continually search for available (but changing) resources in the presence of competing affordances for information gain. Our simulations show that SL outperforms all other algorithms in this context - most notably, Bayes-adaptive RL and upper confidence bound algorithms, which aim to solve multi-step planning problems using similar principles (i.e., directed exploration and counterfactual reasoning). These results provide added support for the utility of Active Inference in solving this class of biologically-relevant problems and offer added tools for testing hypotheses about human cognition.