A central characteristic of Bayesian statistics is the ability to consistently incorporate prior knowledge into various modeling processes. In this paper, we focus on translating domain expert knowledge into corresponding prior distributions over model parameters, a process known as prior elicitation. Expert knowledge can manifest itself in diverse formats, including information about raw data, summary statistics, or model parameters. A major challenge for existing elicitation methods is how to effectively utilize all of these different formats in order to formulate prior distributions that align with the expert's expectations, regardless of the model structure. To address these challenges, we develop a simulation-based elicitation method that can learn the hyperparameters of potentially any parametric prior distribution from a wide spectrum of expert knowledge using stochastic gradient descent. We validate the effectiveness and robustness of our elicitation method in four representative case studies covering linear models, generalized linear models, and hierarchical models. Our results support the claim that our method is largely independent of the underlying model structure and adaptable to various elicitation techniques, including quantile-based, moment-based, and histogram-based methods.

Bayesian classifiers perform well when each of the features is completely independent of the other which is not always valid in real world application. The aim of this study is to implement and compare the performances of each variant of Bayesian classifier (Multinomial, Bernoulli, and Gaussian) on anomaly detection in network intrusion, and to investigate whether there is any association between each variant assumption and their performance. Our investigation showed that each variant of Bayesian algorithm blindly follows its assumption regardless of feature property, and that the assumption is the single most important factor that influences their accuracy. Experimental results show that Bernoulli has accuracy of 69.9% test (71% train), Multinomial has accuracy of 31.2% test (31.2% train), while Gaussian has accuracy of 81.69% test (82.84% train). Going deeper, we investigated and found that each Naive Bayes variants performances and accuracy is largely due to each classifier assumption, Gaussian classifier performed best on anomaly detection due to its assumption that features follow normal distributions which are continuous, while multinomial classifier have a dismal performance as it simply assumes discreet and multinomial distribution.

In conversation, speakers produce language incrementally, word by word, while continuously monitoring the appropriateness of their own contribution in the dynamically unfolding context of the conversation; and this often leads them to repair their own utterance on the fly. This real-time language processing capacity is furthermore crucial to the development of fluent and natural conversational AI. In this paper, we use a previously learned Dynamic Syntax grammar and the CHILDES corpus to develop, train and evaluate a probabilistic model for incremental generation where input to the model is a purely semantic generation goal concept in Type Theory with Records (TTR). We show that the model's output exactly matches the gold candidate in 78% of cases with a ROUGE-l score of 0.86. We further do a zero-shot evaluation of the ability of the same model to generate self-repairs when the generation goal changes mid-utterance. Automatic evaluation shows that the model can generate self-repairs correctly in 85% of cases. A small human evaluation confirms the naturalness and grammaticality of the generated self-repairs. Overall, these results further highlight the generalisation power of grammar-based models and lay the foundations for more controllable, and naturally interactive conversational AI systems.

This paper surveys the recent advances in machine learning method for economic forecasting. The survey covers the following topics: nowcasting, textual data, panel and tensor data, high-dimensional Granger causality tests, time series cross-validation, classification with economic losses.

Interacting systems of events may exhibit cascading behavior where events tend to be temporally clustered. While the cascades themselves may be obvious from the data, it is important to understand which states of the system trigger them. For this purpose, we propose a modeling framework based on continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) to analyze cascading behavior in complex systems. This framework allows us to describe how events propagate through the system and to identify likely sentry states, that is, system states that may lead to imminent cascading behavior. Moreover, CTBNs have a simple graphical representation and provide interpretable outputs, both of which are important when communicating with domain experts. We also develop new methods for knowledge extraction from CTBNs and we apply the proposed methodology to a data set of alarms in a large industrial system.

The current definition of a Bayesian credible set cannot, in general, achieve an arbitrarily preassigned credible level. This drawback is particularly acute for classification problems, where there are only a finite number of achievable credible levels. As a result, there is as of today no general way to construct an exact credible set for classification. In this paper, we introduce a generalized credible set that can achieve any preassigned credible level. The key insight is a simple connection between the Bayesian highest posterior density credible set and the Neyman--Pearson lemma, which, as far as we know, hasn't been noticed before. Using this connection, we introduce a randomized decision rule to fill the gaps among the discrete credible levels. Accompanying this methodology, we also develop the Steering Wheel Plot to represent the credible set, which is useful in visualizing the uncertainty in classification. By developing the exact credible set for discrete parameters, we make the theory of Bayesian inference more complete.

In this paper, we present a methodology that uses an optical tactile sensor for efficient tactile exploration of embedded objects within soft materials. The methodology consists of an exploration phase, where a probabilistic estimate of the location of the embedded objects is built using a Bayesian approach. The exploration phase is then followed by a mapping phase which exploits the probabilistic map to reconstruct the underlying topography of the workspace by sampling in more detail regions where there is expected to be embedded objects. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the method, we tested our approach on an experimental setup that consists of a series of quartz beads located underneath a polyethylene foam that prevents direct observation of the configuration and requires the use of tactile exploration to recover the location of the beads. We show the performance of our methodology using ten different configurations of the beads where the proposed approach is able to approximate the underlying configuration. We benchmark our results against a random sampling policy.

The growing sophistication of Business Email Compromise (BEC) and spear phishing attacks poses significant challenges to organizations worldwide. The techniques featured in traditional spam and phishing detection are insufficient due to the tailored nature of modern BEC attacks as they often blend in with the regular benign traffic. Recent advances in machine learning, particularly in Natural Language Understanding (NLU), offer a promising avenue for combating such attacks but in a practical system, due to limitations such as data availability, operational costs, verdict explainability requirements or a need to robustly evolve the system, it is essential to combine multiple approaches together. We present CAPE, a comprehensive and efficient system for BEC detection that has been proven in a production environment for a period of over two years. Rather than being a single model, CAPE is a system that combines independent ML models and algorithms detecting BEC-related behaviors across various email modalities such as text, images, metadata and the email's communication context. This decomposition makes CAPE's verdicts naturally explainable. In the paper, we describe the design principles and constraints behind its architecture, as well as the challenges of model design, evaluation and adapting the system continuously through a Bayesian approach that combines limited data with domain knowledge. Furthermore, we elaborate on several specific behavioral detectors, such as those based on Transformer neural architectures.

Communicating shapes our social word. For a robot to be considered social and being consequently integrated in our social environment it is fundamental to understand some of the dynamics that rule human-human communication. In this work, we tackle the problem of Addressee Estimation, the ability to understand an utterance's addressee, by interpreting and exploiting non-verbal bodily cues from the speaker. We do so by implementing an hybrid deep learning model composed of convolutional layers and LSTM cells taking as input images portraying the face of the speaker and 2D vectors of the speaker's body posture. Our implementation choices were guided by the aim to develop a model that could be deployed on social robots and be efficient in ecological scenarios. We demonstrate that our model is able to solve the Addressee Estimation problem in terms of addressee localisation in space, from a robot ego-centric point of view.

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single forward-pass models do not sample weights during inference and often make assumptions about the target distribution, such as assuming it is Gaussian. This can be restrictive in regression tasks, where the mean and standard deviation are inadequate to model the target distribution accurately. This paper proposes a deep Bayesian quantile regression model that can estimate the quantiles of a continuous target distribution without the Gaussian assumption. The proposed method is based on evidential learning, which allows the model to capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with a single deterministic forward-pass model. This makes the method efficient and scalable to large models and datasets. We demonstrate that the proposed method achieves calibrated uncertainties on non-Gaussian distributions, disentanglement of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, and robustness to out-of-distribution samples.