Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are versatile probabilistic tools used to model various real-life phenomena: earthquakes, operations on stock markets, neuronal activity, virus propagation and many others. In this paper, we focus on MHPs with exponential decay kernels and estimate connectivity graphs, which represent the Granger causal relations between their components. We approach this inference problem by proposing an optimization criterion and model selection algorithm based on the minimum message length (MML) principle. MML compares Granger causal models using the Occam's razor principle in the following way: even when models have a comparable goodness-of-fit to the observed data, the one generating the most concise explanation of the data is preferred. While most of the state-of-art methods using lasso-type penalization tend to overfitting in scenarios with short time horizons, the proposed MML-based method achieves high F1 scores in these settings. We conduct a numerical study comparing the proposed algorithm to other related classical and state-of-art methods, where we achieve the highest F1 scores in specific sparse graph settings. We illustrate the proposed method also on G7 sovereign bond data and obtain causal connections, which are in agreement with the expert knowledge available in the literature.

Many decision problems cannot be solved exactly and use several estimation algorithms that assign scores to the different available options. The estimation errors can have various correlations, from low (e.g. between two very different approaches) to high (e.g. when using a given algorithm with different hyperparameters). Most aggregation rules would suffer from this diversity of correlations. In this article, we propose different aggregation rules that take correlations into account, and we compare them to naive rules in various experiments based on synthetic data. Our results show that when sufficient information is known about the correlations between errors, a maximum likelihood aggregation should be preferred. Otherwise, typically with limited training data, we recommend a method that we call Embedded Voting (EV).

Causal probabilistic graph-based models have gained widespread utility, enabling the modeling of cause-and-effect relationships across diverse domains. With their rising adoption in new areas, such as automotive system safety and machine learning, the need for an integrated lifecycle framework akin to DevOps and MLOps has emerged. Currently, a process reference for organizations interested in employing causal engineering is missing. To address this gap and foster widespread industrial adoption, we propose CausalOps, a novel lifecycle framework for causal model development and application. By defining key entities, dependencies, and intermediate artifacts generated during causal engineering, we establish a consistent vocabulary and workflow model. This work contextualizes causal model usage across different stages and stakeholders, outlining a holistic view of creating and maintaining them. CausalOps' aim is to drive the adoption of causal methods in practical applications within interested organizations and the causality community.

Learning causal effects from data is a fundamental and well-studied problem across science, especially when the cause-effect relationship is static in nature. However, causal effect is less explored when there are dynamical dependencies, i.e., when dependencies exist between entities across time. Identifying dynamic causal effects from time-series observations is computationally expensive when compared to the static scenario. We demonstrate that the computational complexity of recovering the causation structure for the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is $O(Tn^3N^2)$, where $n$ is the number of nodes, $T$ is the number of samples, and $N$ is the largest time-lag in the dependency between entities. We report a method, with a reduced complexity of $O(Tn^3 \log N)$, to recover the causation structure to obtain frequency-domain (FD) representations of time-series. Since FFT accumulates all the time dependencies on every frequency, causal inference can be performed efficiently by considering the state variables as random variables at any given frequency. We additionally show that, for systems with interactions that are LTI, do-calculus machinery can be realized in the FD resulting in versions of the classical single-door (with cycles), front and backdoor criteria. We demonstrate, for a large class of problems, graph reconstruction using multivariate Wiener projections results in a significant computational advantage with $O(n)$ complexity over reconstruction algorithms such as the PC algorithm which has $O(n^q)$ complexity, where $q$ is the maximum neighborhood size. This advantage accrues due to some remarkable properties of the phase response of the frequency-dependent Wiener coefficients which is not present in any time-domain approach.

Federated Learning (FL) presents an innovative approach to privacy-preserving distributed machine learning and enables efficient crowd intelligence on a large scale. However, a significant challenge arises when coordinating FL with crowd intelligence which diverse client groups possess disparate objectives due to data heterogeneity or distinct tasks. To address this challenge, we propose the Federated cINN Clustering Algorithm (FCCA) to robustly cluster clients into different groups, avoiding mutual interference between clients with data heterogeneity, and thereby enhancing the performance of the global model. Specifically, FCCA utilizes a global encoder to transform each client's private data into multivariate Gaussian distributions. It then employs a generative model to learn encoded latent features through maximum likelihood estimation, which eases optimization and avoids mode collapse. Finally, the central server collects converged local models to approximate similarities between clients and thus partition them into distinct clusters. Extensive experimental results demonstrate FCCA's superiority over other state-of-the-art clustered federated learning algorithms, evaluated on various models and datasets. These results suggest that our approach has substantial potential to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of real-world federated learning tasks.

Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we focus on the computation of predictive probabilities in Bayesian probit models via expectation propagation (EP). Leveraging more general results in recent literature, we show that such predictive probabilities admit a closed-form expression. Improvements over state-of-the-art approaches are shown in a simulation study.

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a diffusion model that can draw global samples with the aim of approximating the posterior. We briefly review diffusion models in the context of image synthesis before providing a streamlined diffusion model tailored towards low-dimensional data arrays. We then present our adapted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which combines local proposals with global proposals taken from a diffusion model that is regularly trained on the samples produced during the MCMC run. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the number of likelihood evaluations required to obtain an accurate representation of the Bayesian posterior across several analytic functions, as well as for a physical example based on a global analysis of parton distribution functions. Our method is extensible to other MCMC techniques, and we briefly compare our method to similar approaches based on normalizing flows. A code implementation can be found at https://github.com/NickHunt-Smith/MCMC-diffusion.

Phase diagrams serve as a highly informative tool for materials design, encapsulating information about the phases that a material can manifest under specific conditions. In this work, we develop a method in which Bayesian inference is employed to combine thermodynamic data from molecular dynamics (MD), melting point simulations, and phonon calculations, process these data, and yield a temperature-concentration phase diagram. The employed Bayesian framework yields us not only the free energies of different phases as functions of temperature and concentration but also the uncertainties of these free energies originating from statistical errors inherent to finite-length MD trajectories. Furthermore, it extrapolates the results of the finite-atom calculations to the infinite-atom limit and facilitates the choice of temperature, chemical potentials, and the number of atoms conducting the next simulation with which will be the most efficient in reducing the uncertainty of the phase diagram. The developed algorithm was successfully tested on two binary systems, Ge-Si and K-Na, in the full range of concentrations and temperatures.

The Knowledge Tracing (KT) task plays a crucial role in personalized learning, and its purpose is to predict student responses based on their historical practice behavior sequence. However, the KT task suffers from data sparsity, which makes it challenging to learn robust representations for students with few practice records and increases the risk of model overfitting. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a Cognition-Mode Aware Variational Representation Learning Framework (CMVF) that can be directly applied to existing KT methods. Our framework uses a probabilistic model to generate a distribution for each student, accounting for uncertainty in those with limited practice records, and estimate the student's distribution via variational inference (VI). In addition, we also introduce a cognition-mode aware multinomial distribution as prior knowledge that constrains the posterior student distributions learning, so as to ensure that students with similar cognition modes have similar distributions, avoiding overwhelming personalization for students with few practice records. At last, extensive experimental results confirm that CMVF can effectively aid existing KT methods in learning more robust student representations. Our code is available at https://github.com/zmy-9/CMVF.

Slating a product for release often involves pitching journalists to run stories on your press release. Good media coverage often ensures greater product reach and drives audience engagement for those products. Hence, ensuring that those releases are pitched to the right journalists with relevant interests is crucial, since they receive several pitches daily. Keeping up with journalist beats and curating a media contacts list is often a huge and time-consuming task. This study proposes a model to automate and expedite the process by recommending suitable journalists to run media coverage on the press releases provided by the user.