Predicting future resource demand in Cloud Computing is essential for optimizing the trade-off between serving customers' requests efficiently and minimizing the provisioning cost. Modelling prediction uncertainty is also desirable to better inform the resource decision-making process, but research in this field is under-investigated. In this paper, we propose univariate and bivariate Bayesian deep learning models that provide predictions of future workload demand and its uncertainty. We run extensive experiments on Google and Alibaba clusters, where we first train our models with datasets from different cloud providers and compare them with LSTM-based baselines. Results show that modelling the uncertainty of predictions has a positive impact on performance, especially on service level metrics, because uncertainty quantification can be tailored to desired target service levels that are critical in cloud applications. Moreover, we investigate whether our models benefit transfer learning capabilities across different domains, i.e. dataset distributions. Experiments on the same workload datasets reveal that acceptable transfer learning performance can be achieved within the same provider (because distributions are more similar). Also, domain knowledge does not transfer when the source and target domains are very different (e.g. from different providers), but this performance degradation can be mitigated by increasing the training set size of the source domain.

There is a considerable body of work on data cleaning which employs various principles to rectify erroneous data and transform a dirty dataset into a cleaner one. One of prevalent approaches is probabilistic methods, including Bayesian methods. However, existing probabilistic methods often assume a simplistic distribution (e.g., Gaussian distribution), which is frequently underfitted in practice, or they necessitate experts to provide a complex prior distribution (e.g., via a programming language). This requirement is both labor-intensive and costly, rendering these methods less suitable for real-world applications. In this paper, we propose BClean, a Bayesian Cleaning system that features automatic Bayesian network construction and user interaction. We recast the data cleaning problem as a Bayesian inference that fully exploits the relationships between attributes in the observed dataset and any prior information provided by users. To this end, we present an automatic Bayesian network construction method that extends a structure learning-based functional dependency discovery method with similarity functions to capture the relationships between attributes. Furthermore, our system allows users to modify the generated Bayesian network in order to specify prior information or correct inaccuracies identified by the automatic generation process. We also design an effective scoring model (called the compensative scoring model) necessary for the Bayesian inference. To enhance the efficiency of data cleaning, we propose several approximation strategies for the Bayesian inference, including graph partitioning, domain pruning, and pre-detection. By evaluating on both real-world and synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that BClean is capable of achieving an F-measure of up to 0.9 in data cleaning, outperforming existing Bayesian methods by 2% and other data cleaning methods by 15%.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) seeks to learn the reward function from expert trajectories, to understand the task for imitation or collaboration thereby removing the need for manual reward engineering. However, IRL in the context of large, highdimensional problems with unknown dynamics has been particularly challenging. In this paper, we present a new Variational Lower Bound for IRL (VLB-IRL), which is derived under the framework of a probabilistic graphical model with an optimality node. Our method simultaneously learns the reward function and policy under the learned reward function by maximizing the lower bound, which is equivalent to minimizing the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence between an approximated distribution of optimality given the reward function and the true distribution of optimality given trajectories. This leads to a new IRL method that learns a valid reward function such that the policy under the learned reward achieves expert-level performance on several known domains. Importantly, the method outperforms the existing state-of-the-art IRL algorithms on these domains by demonstrating better reward from the learned policy. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a popular method for automating decision making and control. However, to achieve practical effectiveness, significant engineering of reward features and reward functions has traditionally been necessary.

While there is abundant work on methodology, algorithms, and applications, a smaller body of literature has investigated the relationship between the clusters found by a method and the underlying data-generating mechanism. Assuming that the observed data set is generated by independent and identical observations from a probability law P, consistency concerns the relationship between P and the outcome of a method for random samples of a size converging to infinity. In cluster analysis, the clustering itself and/or distributional parameters characterising the clustering may be of interest. Here we will derive consistency results for model-based clustering, i.e., clustering based on probability mixture models. More precisely, the results will concern maximum likelihood (ML) estimators (MLE) of finite mixtures of distributions from elliptically symmetrical distribution (ESD) families such as the Gaussian distribution. Finite mixture models (FMM) are convex combinations of probability distributions suitable to represent inhomogeneous populations.

We consider inverse problems where the conditional distribution of the observation ${\bf y}$ given the latent variable of interest ${\bf x}$ (also known as the forward model) is known, and we have access to a data set in which multiple instances of ${\bf x}$ and ${\bf y}$ are both observed. In this context, algorithm unrolling has become a very popular approach for designing state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures that effectively exploit the forward model. We analyze the statistical complexity of the gradient descent network (GDN), an algorithm unrolling architecture driven by proximal gradient descent. We show that the unrolling depth needed for the optimal statistical performance of GDNs is of order $\log(n)/\log(\varrho_n^{-1})$, where $n$ is the sample size, and $\varrho_n$ is the convergence rate of the corresponding gradient descent algorithm. We also show that when the negative log-density of the latent variable ${\bf x}$ has a simple proximal operator, then a GDN unrolled at depth $D'$ can solve the inverse problem at the parametric rate $O(D'/\sqrt{n})$. Our results thus also suggest that algorithm unrolling models are prone to overfitting as the unrolling depth $D'$ increases. We provide several examples to illustrate these results.

Learning the causes of time-series data is a fundamental task in many applications, spanning from finance to earth sciences or bio-medical applications. Common approaches for this task are based on vector auto-regression, and they do not take into account unknown confounding between potential causes. However, in settings with many potential causes and noisy data, these approaches may be substantially biased. Furthermore, potential causes may be correlated in practical applications. Moreover, existing algorithms often do not work with cyclic data. To address these challenges, we propose a new doubly robust method for Structure Identification from Temporal Data ( SITD ). We provide theoretical guarantees, showing that our method asymptotically recovers the true underlying causal structure. Our analysis extends to cases where the potential causes have cycles and they may be confounded. We further perform extensive experiments to showcase the superior performance of our method.

The recently proposed tensor robust principal component analysis (TRPCA) methods based on tensor singular value decomposition (t-SVD) have achieved numerous successes in many fields. However, most of these methods are only applicable to third-order tensors, whereas the data obtained in practice are often of higher order, such as fourth-order color videos, fourth-order hyperspectral videos, and fifth-order light-field images. Additionally, in the t-SVD framework, the multi-rank of a tensor can describe more fine-grained low-rank structure in the tensor compared with the tubal rank. However, determining the multi-rank of a tensor is a much more difficult problem than determining the tubal rank. Moreover, most of the existing TRPCA methods do not explicitly model the noises except the sparse noise, which may compromise the accuracy of estimating the low-rank tensor. In this work, we propose a novel high-order TRPCA method, named as Low-Multi-rank High-order Bayesian Robust Tensor Factorization (LMH-BRTF), within the Bayesian framework. Specifically, we decompose the observed corrupted tensor into three parts, i.e., the low-rank component, the sparse component, and the noise component. By constructing a low-rank model for the low-rank component based on the order-$d$ t-SVD and introducing a proper prior for the model, LMH-BRTF can automatically determine the tensor multi-rank. Meanwhile, benefiting from the explicit modeling of both the sparse and noise components, the proposed method can leverage information from the noises more effectivly, leading to an improved performance of TRPCA. Then, an efficient variational inference algorithm is established for parameters estimation. Empirical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of both qualitative and quantitative results.

Classical federated learning (FL) enables training machine learning models without sharing data for privacy preservation, but heterogeneous data characteristic degrades the performance of the localized model. Personalized FL (PFL) addresses this by synthesizing personalized models from a global model via training on local data. Such a global model may overlook the specific information that the clients have been sampled. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme to inject personalized prior knowledge into the global model in each client, which attempts to mitigate the introduced incomplete information problem in PFL. At the heart of our proposed approach is a framework, the PFL with Bregman Divergence (pFedBreD), decoupling the personalized prior from the local objective function regularized by Bregman divergence for greater adaptability in personalized scenarios. We also relax the mirror descent (RMD) to extract the prior explicitly to provide optional strategies. Additionally, our pFedBreD is backed up by a convergence analysis. Sufficient experiments demonstrate that our method reaches the state-of-the-art performances on 5 datasets and outperforms other methods by up to 3.5% across 8 benchmarks. Extensive analyses verify the robustness and necessity of proposed designs.

We consider the problem of learning the exact skeleton of general discrete Bayesian networks from potentially corrupted data. Building on distributionally robust optimization and a regression approach, we propose to optimize the most adverse risk over a family of distributions within bounded Wasserstein distance or KL divergence to the empirical distribution. The worst-case risk accounts for the effect of outliers. The proposed approach applies for general categorical random variables without assuming faithfulness, an ordinal relationship or a specific form of conditional distribution. We present efficient algorithms and show the proposed methods are closely related to the standard regularized regression approach. Under mild assumptions, we derive non-asymptotic guarantees for successful structure learning with logarithmic sample complexities for bounded-degree graphs. Numerical study on synthetic and real datasets validates the effectiveness of our method. Code is available at https://github.com/DanielLeee/drslbn.

Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) facilitate adaptive inference by producing predictions at multiple stages of the forward pass. In safety-critical applications, these predictions are only meaningful when complemented with reliable uncertainty estimates. Yet, due to their sequential structure, an EENN's uncertainty estimates should also be consistent: labels that are deemed improbable at one exit should not reappear within the confidence interval / set of later exits. We show that standard uncertainty quantification techniques, like Bayesian methods or conformal prediction, can lead to inconsistency across exits. We address this problem by applying anytime-valid confidence sequences (AVCSs) to the exits of EENNs. By design, AVCSs maintain consistency across exits. We examine the theoretical and practical challenges of applying AVCSs to EENNs and empirically validate our approach on both regression and classification tasks.