In March 2020, the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 a global pandemic as it spread to nearly every country. By mid-2021, India had introduced three vaccines: Covishield, Covaxin, and Sputnik. To ensure successful vaccination in a densely populated country like India, understanding public sentiment was crucial. Social media, particularly Reddit with over 430 million users, played a vital role in disseminating information. This study employs data mining techniques to analyze Reddit data and gauge Indian sentiments towards COVID-19 vaccines. Using Python's Text Blob library, comments are annotated to assess general sentiments. Results show that most Reddit users in India expressed neutrality about vaccination, posing a challenge for the Indian government's efforts to vaccinate a significant portion of the population.

Computational models are powerful tools for understanding human cognition and behavior. They let us express our theories clearly and precisely, and offer predictions that can be subtle and often counter-intuitive. However, this same richness and ability to surprise means our scientific intuitions and traditional tools are ill-suited to designing experiments to test and compare these models. To avoid these pitfalls and realize the full potential of computational modeling, we require tools to design experiments that provide clear answers about what models explain human behavior and the auxiliary assumptions those models must make. Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) formalizes the search for optimal experimental designs by identifying experiments that are expected to yield informative data. In this work, we provide a tutorial on leveraging recent advances in BOED and machine learning to find optimal experiments for any kind of model that we can simulate data from, and show how by-products of this procedure allow for quick and straightforward evaluation of models and their parameters against real experimental data. As a case study, we consider theories of how people balance exploration and exploitation in multi-armed bandit decision-making tasks. We validate the presented approach using simulations and a real-world experiment. As compared to experimental designs commonly used in the literature, we show that our optimal designs more efficiently determine which of a set of models best account for individual human behavior, and more efficiently characterize behavior given a preferred model. At the same time, formalizing a scientific question such that it can be adequately addressed with BOED can be challenging and we discuss several potential caveats and pitfalls that practitioners should be aware of. We provide code and tutorial notebooks to replicate all analyses.

Clustering stands as one of the most prominent challenges within the realm of unsupervised machine learning. Among the array of centroid-based clustering algorithms, the classic $k$-means algorithm, rooted in Lloyd's heuristic, takes center stage as one of the extensively employed techniques in the literature. Nonetheless, both $k$-means and its variants grapple with noteworthy limitations. These encompass a heavy reliance on initial cluster centroids, susceptibility to converging into local minima of the objective function, and sensitivity to outliers and noise in the data. When confronted with data containing noisy or outlier-laden observations, the Median-of-Means (MoM) estimator emerges as a stabilizing force for any centroid-based clustering framework. On a different note, a prevalent constraint among existing clustering methodologies resides in the prerequisite knowledge of the number of clusters prior to analysis. Utilizing model-based methodologies, such as Bayesian nonparametric models, offers the advantage of infinite mixture models, thereby circumventing the need for such requirements. Motivated by these facts, in this article, we present an efficient and automatic clustering technique by integrating the principles of model-based and centroid-based methodologies that mitigates the effect of noise on the quality of clustering while ensuring that the number of clusters need not be specified in advance. Statistical guarantees on the upper bound of clustering error, and rigorous assessment through simulated and real datasets suggest the advantages of our proposed method over existing state-of-the-art clustering algorithms.

Multi-dimensional classification (MDC) can be employed in a range of applications where one needs to predict multiple class variables for each given instance. Many existing MDC methods suffer from at least one of inaccuracy, scalability, limited use to certain types of data, hardness of interpretation or lack of probabilistic (uncertainty) estimations. This paper is an attempt to address all these disadvantages simultaneously. We propose a formal framework for probabilistic MDC in which learning an optimal multi-dimensional classifier can be decomposed, without loss of generality, into learning a set of (smaller) single-variable multi-class probabilistic classifiers and a directed acyclic graph. Current and future developments of both probabilistic classification and graphical model learning can directly enhance our framework, which is flexible and provably optimal. A collection of experiments is conducted to highlight the usefulness of this MDC framework.

Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small perturbations of that instance that allows changing the classification outcome. This work aims to leverage Counterfactual Explanations to detect the important decision boundaries of a pre-trained black-box model. This information is used to build a supervised discretization of the features in the dataset with a tunable granularity. Using the discretized dataset, an optimal Decision Tree can be trained that resembles the black-box model, but that is interpretable and compact. Numerical results on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the approach in terms of accuracy and sparsity.

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this "neural circuit" has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods for inference in these models while being faster and simpler to use than methods that explicitly incorporate Bayesian nonparametric inference.

Mobile health (mHealth) technologies aim to improve distal outcomes, such as clinical conditions, by optimizing proximal outcomes through just-in-time adaptive interventions. Contextual bandits provide a suitable framework for customizing such interventions according to individual time-varying contexts, intending to maximize cumulative proximal outcomes. However, unique challenges such as modeling count outcomes within bandit frameworks have hindered the widespread application of contextual bandits to mHealth studies. The current work addresses this challenge by leveraging count data models into online decision-making approaches. Specifically, we combine four common offline count data models (Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regressions) with Thompson sampling, a popular contextual bandit algorithm. The proposed algorithms are motivated by and evaluated on a real dataset from the Drink Less trial, where they are shown to improve user engagement with the mHealth system. The proposed methods are further evaluated on simulated data, achieving improvement in maximizing cumulative proximal outcomes over existing algorithms. Theoretical results on regret bounds are also derived. A user-friendly R package countts that implements the proposed methods for assessing contextual bandit algorithms is made publicly available at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/countts.

Gaussian Process Networks (GPNs) are a class of directed graphical models which employ Gaussian processes as priors for the conditional expectation of each variable given its parents in the network. The model allows the description of continuous joint distributions in a compact but flexible manner with minimal parametric assumptions on the dependencies between variables. Bayesian structure learning of GPNs requires computing the posterior over graphs of the network and is computationally infeasible even in low dimensions. This work implements Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of network structures. As such, the approach follows the Bayesian paradigm, comparing models via their marginal likelihood and computing the posterior probability of the GPN features. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in recovering the graphical structure of the network and provides an accurate approximation of its posterior distribution.

This study aims to comprehensively investigate the deep ensemble approach, an approximate Bayesian inference, in the multi-output regression task for predicting the aerodynamic performance of a missile configuration. To this end, the effect of the number of neural networks used in the ensemble, which has been blindly adopted in previous studies, is scrutinized. As a result, an obvious trend towards underestimation of uncertainty as it increases is observed for the first time, and in this context, we propose the deep ensemble framework that applies the post-hoc calibration method to improve its uncertainty quantification performance. It is compared with Gaussian process regression and is shown to have superior performance in terms of regression accuracy ($\uparrow55\sim56\%$), reliability of estimated uncertainty ($\uparrow38\sim77\%$), and training efficiency ($\uparrow78\%$). Finally, the potential impact of the suggested framework on the Bayesian optimization is briefly examined, indicating that deep ensemble without calibration may lead to unintended exploratory behavior. This UQ framework can be seamlessly applied and extended to any regression task, as no special assumptions have been made for the specific problem used in this study.

Our research aims at classifying individuals based on their unique interactions on the touchscreen-based smartphones. In this research, we use'TouchAnalytics' datasets, which include 41 subjects and 30 different behavioral features. Furthermore, we derived new features from the raw data to improve the overall authentication performance. Previous research has already been done on the TouchAnalytics datasets with the state-of-the-art classifiers, including Support Vector Machine (SVM) and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and achieved equal error rates (EERs) between 0% to 4%. Here, we propose a novel Deep Neural Net (DNN) architecture to classify the individuals correctly. The proposed DNN architecture has three dense layers and used many-to-many mapping techniques. When we combine the new features with the existing ones, SVM and k-NN achieved the classification accuracies of 94.7% and 94.6%, respectively. This research explored seven other classifiers and out of them, decision tree and our proposed DNN classifiers resulted in the highest accuracies with 100%. The others included: Logistic Regression (LR), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Gaussian Naive Bayes (NB), Neural Network, and VGGNet with the following accuracy scores of 94.7%, 95.9%, 31.9%,