AI-generated media has become a threat to our digital society as we know it. These forgeries can be created automatically and on a large scale based on publicly available technology. Recognizing this challenge, academics and practitioners have proposed a multitude of automatic detection strategies to detect such artificial media. However, in contrast to these technical advances, the human perception of generated media has not been thoroughly studied yet. In this paper, we aim at closing this research gap. We perform the first comprehensive survey into people's ability to detect generated media, spanning three countries (USA, Germany, and China) with 3,002 participants across audio, image, and text media. Our results indicate that state-of-the-art forgeries are almost indistinguishable from "real" media, with the majority of participants simply guessing when asked to rate them as human- or machine-generated. In addition, AI-generated media receive is voted more human like across all media types and all countries. To further understand which factors influence people's ability to detect generated media, we include personal variables, chosen based on a literature review in the domains of deepfake and fake news research. In a regression analysis, we found that generalized trust, cognitive reflection, and self-reported familiarity with deepfakes significantly influence participant's decision across all media categories.

Automated classifiers (ACs), often built via supervised machine learning (SML), can categorize large, statistically powerful samples of data ranging from text to images and video, and have become widely popular measurement devices in communication science and related fields. Despite this popularity, even highly accurate classifiers make errors that cause misclassification bias and misleading results in downstream analyses-unless such analyses account for these errors. As we show in a systematic literature review of SML applications, communication scholars largely ignore misclassification bias. In principle, existing statistical methods can use "gold standard" validation data, such as that created by human annotators, to correct misclassification bias and produce consistent estimates. We introduce and test such methods, including a new method we design and implement in the R package misclassificationmodels, via Monte Carlo simulations designed to reveal each method's limitations, which we also release. Based on our results, we recommend our new error correction method as it is versatile and efficient. In sum, automated classifiers, even those below common accuracy standards or making systematic misclassifications, can be useful for measurement with careful study design and appropriate error correction methods.

Comprehending how the brain interacts with the external world through generated neural data is crucial for determining its working mechanism, treating brain diseases, and understanding intelligence. Although many theoretical models have been proposed, they have thus far been difficult to integrate and develop. In this study, we were inspired in part by grid cells in creating a more general and robust grid module and constructing an interactive and self-reinforcing cognitive system together with Bayesian reasoning, an approach called space-division and exploration-exploitation with grid-feedback (Grid-SD2E). Here, a grid module can be used as an interaction medium between the outside world and a system, as well as a self-reinforcement medium within the system. The space-division and exploration-exploitation (SD2E) receives the 0/1 signals of a grid through its space-division (SD) module. The system described in this paper is also a theoretical model derived from experiments conducted by other researchers and our experience on neural decoding. Herein, we analyse the rationality of the system based on the existing theories in both neuroscience and cognitive science, and attempt to propose special and general rules to explain the different interactions between people and between people and the external world. What's more, based on this framework, the smallest computing unit is extracted, which is analogous to a single neuron in the brain.

To address the bias of the canonical two-way fixed effects estimator for difference-in-differences under staggered adoptions, Wooldridge (2021) proposed the extended two-way fixed effects estimator, which adds many parameters. However, this reduces efficiency. Restricting some of these parameters to be equal helps, but ad hoc restrictions may reintroduce bias. We propose a machine learning estimator with a single tuning parameter, fused extended two-way fixed effects (FETWFE), that enables automatic data-driven selection of these restrictions. We prove that under an appropriate sparsity assumption FETWFE identifies the correct restrictions with probability tending to one. We also prove the consistency, asymptotic normality, and oracle efficiency of FETWFE for two classes of heterogeneous marginal treatment effect estimators under either conditional or marginal parallel trends, and we prove consistency for two classes of conditional average treatment effects under conditional parallel trends. We demonstrate FETWFE in simulation studies and an empirical application.

Survival Analysis (SA) constitutes the default method for time-to-event modeling due to its ability to estimate event probabilities of sparsely occurring events over time. In this work, we show how to improve the training and inference of SA models by decoupling their full expression into (1) an aggregated baseline hazard, which captures the overall behavior of a given population, and (2) independently distributed survival scores, which model idiosyncratic probabilistic dynamics of its given members, in a fully parametric setting. The proposed inference method is shown to dynamically handle right-censored observation horizons, and to achieve competitive performance when compared to other state-of-the-art methods in a variety of real-world datasets, including computationally inefficient Deep Learning-based SA methods and models that require MCMC for inference. Nevertheless, our method achieves robust results from the outset, while not being subjected to fine-tuning or hyperparameter optimization.

Inferring causal structure from data is a challenging task of fundamental importance in science. Often, observational data alone is not enough to uniquely identify a system's causal structure. The use of interventional data can address this issue, however, acquiring these samples typically demands a considerable investment of time and physical or financial resources. In this work, we are concerned with the acquisition of interventional data in a targeted manner to minimize the number of required experiments. We propose a novel Gradient-based Intervention Targeting method, abbreviated GIT, that'trusts' the gradient estimator of a gradient-based causal discovery framework to provide signals for the intervention targeting function. We provide extensive experiments in simulated and real-world datasets and demonstrate that GIT performs on par with competitive baselines, surpassing them in the low-data regime.

Sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) and related adversarial deep-learning methods can drastically improve generalization, but their underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. Here, we establish SAM as a relaxation of the Bayes objective where the expected negative-loss is replaced by the optimal convex lower bound, obtained by using the so-called Fenchel biconjugate. The connection enables a new Adam-like extension of SAM to automatically obtain reasonable uncertainty estimates, while sometimes also improving its accuracy. By connecting adversarial and Bayesian methods, our work opens a new path to robustness.

Maize, a crucial crop globally cultivated across vast regions, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, occupies 197 million hectares as of 2021. Various statistical and machine learning models, including mixed-effect models, random coefficients models, random forests, and deep learning architectures, have been devised to predict maize yield. These models consider factors such as genotype, environment, genotype-environment interaction, and field management. However, the existing models often fall short of fully exploiting the complex network of causal relationships among these factors and the hierarchical structure inherent in agronomic data. This study introduces an innovative approach integrating random effects into Bayesian networks (BNs), leveraging their capacity to model causal and probabilistic relationships through directed acyclic graphs. Rooted in the linear mixed-effects models framework and tailored for hierarchical data, this novel approach demonstrates enhanced BN learning. Application to a real-world agronomic trial produces a model with improved interpretability, unveiling new causal connections. Notably, the proposed method significantly reduces the error rate in maize yield prediction from 28% to 17%. These results advocate for the preference of BNs in constructing practical decision support tools for hierarchical agronomic data, facilitating causal inference.

Heterogeneous graph neural networks have become popular in various domains. However, their generalizability and interpretability are limited due to the discrepancy between their inherent inference flows and human reasoning logic or underlying causal relationships for the learning problem. This study introduces a novel solution, HG-SCM (Heterogeneous Graph as Structural Causal Model). It can mimic the human perception and decision process through two key steps: constructing intelligible variables based on semantics derived from the graph schema and automatically learning task-level causal relationships among these variables by incorporating advanced causal discovery techniques. We compared HG-SCM to seven state-of-the-art baseline models on three real-world datasets, under three distinct and ubiquitous out-of-distribution settings. HG-SCM achieved the highest average performance rank with minimal standard deviation, substantiating its effectiveness and superiority in terms of both predictive power and generalizability. Additionally, the visualization and analysis of the auto-learned causal diagrams for the three tasks aligned well with domain knowledge and human cognition, demonstrating prominent interpretability. HG-SCM's human-like nature and its enhanced generalizability and interpretability make it a promising solution for special scenarios where transparency and trustworthiness are paramount.

The probability of an event is in the range of [0, 1]. In a sample space S, the value of probability determines whether an outcome is true or false. The probability of an event Pr(A) that will never occur = 0. The probability of the event Pr(B) that will certainly occur = 1. This makes both events A and B thus a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E1) + Pr(E2) + ... + Pr(En) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S = 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. Firstly, this paper discusses Bayes' theorem, then complement of probability and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events, before applying these in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum total of 1; to make recommendation for student learning, this paper submits that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates: i) the probability of skill-set events that has occurred that would lead to higher level learning; ii) the probability of the events that has not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels; and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning [1].