The ability to accurately predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical hurdle to overcome on the journey to fully autonomous vehicles. To address this challenge, we pioneer a novel behavior-aware trajectory prediction model (BAT) that incorporates insights and findings from traffic psychology, human behavior, and decision-making. Our model consists of behavior-aware, interaction-aware, priority-aware, and position-aware modules that perceive and understand the underlying interactions and account for uncertainty and variability in prediction, enabling higher-level learning and flexibility without rigid categorization of driving behavior. Importantly, this approach eliminates the need for manual labeling in the training process and addresses the challenges of non-continuous behavior labeling and the selection of appropriate time windows. We evaluate BAT's performance across the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), Roundabout Drone (RounD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets, showcasing its superiority over prevailing state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmarks in terms of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Remarkably, even when trained on reduced portions of the training data (25%), our model outperforms most of the baselines, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency in predicting vehicle trajectories, and the potential to reduce the amount of data required to train autonomous vehicles, especially in corner cases. In conclusion, the behavior-aware model represents a significant advancement in the development of autonomous vehicles capable of predicting trajectories with the same level of proficiency as human drivers. The project page is available at https://github.com/Petrichor625/BATraj-Behavior-aware-Model.

In supervised learning, automatically assessing the quality of the labels before any learning takes place remains an open research question. In certain particular cases, hypothesis testing procedures have been proposed to assess whether a given instance-label dataset is contaminated with class-conditional label noise, as opposed to uniform label noise. The existing theory builds on the asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate for parametric logistic regression. However, the parametric assumptions on top of which these approaches are constructed are often too strong and unrealistic in practice. To alleviate this problem, in this paper we propose an alternative path by showing how similar procedures can be followed when the underlying model is a product of Local Maximum Likelihood Estimation that leads to more flexible nonparametric logistic regression models, which in turn are less susceptible to model misspecification. This different view allows for wider applicability of the tests by offering users access to a richer model class. Similarly to existing works, we assume we have access to anchor points which are provided by the users. We introduce the necessary ingredients for the adaptation of the hypothesis tests to the case of nonparametric logistic regression and empirically compare against the parametric approach presenting both synthetic and real-world case studies and discussing the advantages and limitations of the proposed approach.

Evaluating the average causal effect (ACE) of a treatment on an outcome often involves overcoming the challenges posed by confounding factors in observational studies. A traditional approach uses the back-door criterion, seeking adjustment sets to block confounding paths between treatment and outcome. However, this method struggles with unmeasured confounders. As an alternative, the front-door criterion offers a solution, even in the presence of unmeasured confounders between treatment and outcome. This method relies on identifying mediators that are not directly affected by these confounders and that completely mediate the treatment's effect. Here, we introduce novel estimation strategies for the front-door criterion based on the targeted minimum loss-based estimation theory. Our estimators work across diverse scenarios, handling binary, continuous, and multivariate mediators. They leverage data-adaptive machine learning algorithms, minimizing assumptions and ensuring key statistical properties like asymptotic linearity, double-robustness, efficiency, and valid estimates within the target parameter space. We establish conditions under which the nuisance functional estimations ensure the root n-consistency of ACE estimators. Our numerical experiments show the favorable finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. We demonstrate the applicability of these estimators to analyze the effect of early stage academic performance on future yearly income using data from the Finnish Social Science Data Archive.

The identification of the Purkinje conduction system in the heart is a challenging task, yet essential for a correct definition of cardiac digital twins for precision cardiology. Here, we propose a probabilistic approach for identifying the Purkinje network from non-invasive clinical data such as the standard electrocardiogram (ECG). We use cardiac imaging to build an anatomically accurate model of the ventricles; we algorithmically generate a rule-based Purkinje network tailored to the anatomy; we simulate physiological electrocardiograms with a fast model; we identify the geometrical and electrical parameters of the Purkinje-ECG model with Bayesian optimization and approximate Bayesian computation. The proposed approach is inherently probabilistic and generates a population of plausible Purkinje networks, all fitting the ECG within a given tolerance. In this way, we can estimate the uncertainty of the parameters, thus providing reliable predictions. We test our methodology in physiological and pathological scenarios, showing that we are able to accurately recover the ECG with our model. We propagate the uncertainty in the Purkinje network parameters in a simulation of conduction system pacing therapy. Our methodology is a step forward in creation of digital twins from non-invasive data in precision medicine. An open source implementation can be found at http://github.com/fsahli/purkinje-learning

Design optimisation potentially leads to lightweight aircraft structures with lower environmental impact. Due to the high number of design variables and constraints, these problems are ordinarily solved using gradient-based optimisation methods, leading to a local solution in the design space while the global space is neglected. Bayesian Optimisation is a promising path towards sample-efficient, global optimisation based on probabilistic surrogate models. While Bayesian optimisation methods have demonstrated their strength for problems with a low number of design variables, the scalability to high-dimensional problems while incorporating large-scale constraints is still lacking. Especially in aeroelastic tailoring where directional stiffness properties are embodied into the structural design of aircraft, to control aeroelastic deformations and to increase the aerodynamic and structural performance, the safe operation of the system needs to be ensured by involving constraints resulting from different analysis disciplines. Hence, a global design space search becomes even more challenging. The present study attempts to tackle the problem by using high-dimensional Bayesian Optimisation in combination with a dimensionality reduction approach to solve the optimisation problem occurring in aeroelastic tailoring, presenting a novel approach for high-dimensional problems with large-scale constraints. Experiments on well-known benchmark cases with black-box constraints show that the proposed approach can incorporate large-scale constraints.

Deep anomaly detection methods have become increasingly popular in recent years, with methods like Stacked Autoencoders, Variational Autoencoders, and Generative Adversarial Networks greatly improving the state-of-the-art. Other methods rely on augmenting classical models (such as the One-Class Support Vector Machine), by learning an appropriate kernel function using Neural Networks. Recent developments in representation learning by self-supervision are proving to be very beneficial in the context of anomaly detection. Inspired by the advancements in anomaly detection using self-supervised learning in the field of computer vision, this thesis aims to develop a method for detecting anomalies by exploiting pretext tasks tailored for text corpora. This approach greatly improves the state-of-the-art on two datasets, 20Newsgroups, and AG News, for both semi-supervised and unsupervised anomaly detection, thus proving the potential for self-supervised anomaly detectors in the field of natural language processing.

In this study, we propose an approach for predicting rare events by exploiting time series in coevolution. Our approach involves a weighted autologistic regression model, where we leverage the temporal behavior of the data to enhance predictive capabilities. By addressing the issue of imbalanced datasets, we establish constraints leading to weight estimation and to improved performance. Evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets confirms that our approach outperform state-of-the-art of predicting home equipment failure methods.

Cognitive modeling commonly relies on asking participants to complete a battery of varied tests in order to estimate attention, working memory, and other latent variables. In many cases, these tests result in highly variable observation models. A near-ubiquitous approach is to repeat many observations for each test, resulting in a distribution over the outcomes from each test given to each subject. In this paper, we explore the usage of latent variable modeling to enable learning across many correlated variables simultaneously. We extend latent variable models (LVMs) to the setting where observed data for each subject are a series of observations from many different distributions, rather than simple vectors to be reconstructed. By embedding test battery results for individuals in a latent space that is trained jointly across a population, we are able to leverage correlations both between tests for a single participant and between multiple participants. We then propose an active learning framework that leverages this model to conduct more efficient cognitive test batteries. We validate our approach by demonstrating with real-time data acquisition that it performs comparably to conventional methods in making item-level predictions with fewer test items.

This paper proposes a Bayes Net based Monte Carlo optimization for motion planning (BN-MCO). Primarily, we adjust the potential fields determined by goal and start constraints to progressively guide the sampled clusters toward the goal and start points. Then, we utilize the Gaussian mixed modal (GMM) to perform the Monte Carlo optimization, confronting these two non-convex potential fields. Moreover, KL divergence measures the bias between the true distribution determined by the fields and the proposed GMM, whose parameters are learned incrementally according to the manifold information of the bias. In this way, the Bayesian network consisting of sequential updated GMMs expands until the constraints are satisfied and the shortest path method can find a feasible path. Finally, we tune the key parameters and benchmark BN-MCO against the other 5 planners on LBR-iiwa in a bookshelf. The result shows the highest success rate and moderate solving efficiency of BN-MCO.

Robots cannot yet match humans' ability to rapidly learn the shapes of novel 3D objects and recognize them robustly despite clutter and occlusion. We present Bayes3D, an uncertainty-aware perception system for structured 3D scenes, that reports accurate posterior uncertainty over 3D object shape, pose, and scene composition in the presence of clutter and occlusion. Bayes3D delivers these capabilities via a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for 3D scenes and a GPU-accelerated coarse-to-fine sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. Quantitative experiments show that Bayes3D can learn 3D models of novel objects from just a handful of views, recognizing them more robustly and with orders of magnitude less training data than neural baselines, and tracking 3D objects faster than real time on a single GPU. We also demonstrate that Bayes3D learns complex 3D object models and accurately infers 3D scene composition when used on a Panda robot in a tabletop scenario.