In a basketball game, scoring efficiency holds significant importance due to the numerous offensive possessions per game. Enhancing scoring efficiency necessitates effective collaboration among players with diverse playing styles. In previous studies, basketball lineups have been analyzed, but their playing style compatibility has not been quantitatively examined. The purpose of this study is to analyze more specifically the impact of playing style compatibility on scoring efficiency, focusing only on offense. This study employs two methods to capture the playing styles of players on offense: shooting style clustering using tracking data, and offensive role clustering based on annotated playtypes and advanced statistics. For the former, interpretable hand-crafted shot features and Wasserstein distances between shooting style distributions were utilized. For the latter, soft clustering was applied to playtype data for the first time. Subsequently, based on the lineup information derived from these two clusterings, machine learning models Bayesian models that predict statistics representing scoring efficiency were trained and interpreted. These approaches provide insights into which combinations of five players tend to be effective and which combinations of two players tend to produce good effects.

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in incorporating neural networks into particle filters, e.g. differentiable particle filters, to perform joint sequential state estimation and model learning for non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models in complex environments. Existing differentiable particle filters are mostly constructed with vanilla neural networks that do not allow density estimation. As a result, they are either restricted to a bootstrap particle filtering framework or employ predefined distribution families (e.g. Gaussian distributions), limiting their performance in more complex real-world scenarios. In this paper we present a differentiable particle filtering framework that uses (conditional) normalising flows to build its dynamic model, proposal distribution, and measurement model. This not only enables valid probability densities but also allows the proposed method to adaptively learn these modules in a flexible way, without being restricted to predefined distribution families. We derive the theoretical properties of the proposed filters and evaluate the proposed normalising flow-based differentiable particle filters' performance through a series of numerical experiments.

In today's digital world, social media plays a significant role in facilitating communication and content sharing. However, the exponential rise in user-generated content has led to challenges in maintaining a respectful online environment. In some cases, users have taken advantage of anonymity in order to use harmful language, which can negatively affect the user experience and pose serious social problems. Recognizing the limitations of manual moderation, automatic detection systems have been developed to tackle this problem. Nevertheless, several obstacles persist, including the absence of a universal definition for harmful language, inadequate datasets across languages, the need for detailed annotation guideline, and most importantly, a comprehensive framework. This study aims to address these challenges by introducing, for the first time, a detailed framework adaptable to any language. This framework encompasses various aspects of harmful language detection. A key component of the framework is the development of a general and detailed annotation guideline. Additionally, the integration of sentiment analysis represents a novel approach to enhancing harmful language detection. Also, a definition of harmful language based on the review of different related concepts is presented. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, its implementation in a challenging low-resource language is conducted. We collected a Persian dataset and applied the annotation guideline for harmful detection and sentiment analysis. Next, we present baseline experiments utilizing machine and deep learning methods to set benchmarks. Results prove the framework's high performance, achieving an accuracy of 99.4% in offensive language detection and 66.2% in sentiment analysis.

Benchmark datasets used for image classification tend to have very low levels of label noise. When Bayesian neural networks are trained on these datasets, they often underfit, misrepresenting the aleatoric uncertainty of the data. A common solution is to cool the posterior, which improves fit to the training data but is challenging to interpret from a Bayesian perspective. We explore whether posterior tempering can be replaced by a confidence-inducing prior distribution. First, we introduce a "DirClip" prior that is practical to sample and nearly matches the performance of a cold posterior. Second, we introduce a "confidence prior" that directly approximates a cold likelihood in the limit of decreasing temperature but cannot be easily sampled. Lastly, we provide several general insights into confidence-inducing priors, such as when they might diverge and how fine-tuning can mitigate numerical instability.

Past analyses of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) assume that the human fully observes the environment. What happens when human feedback is based only on partial observations? We formally define two failure cases: deception and overjustification. Modeling the human as Boltzmann-rational w.r.t. a belief over trajectories, we prove conditions under which RLHF is guaranteed to result in policies that deceptively inflate their performance, overjustify their behavior to make an impression, or both. To help address these issues, we mathematically characterize how partial observability of the environment translates into (lack of) ambiguity in the learned return function. In some cases, accounting for partial observability makes it theoretically possible to recover the return function and thus the optimal policy, while in other cases, there is irreducible ambiguity. We caution against blindly applying RLHF in partially observable settings and propose research directions to help tackle these challenges.

Due to its high sample complexity, simulation is, as of today, critical for the successful application of reinforcement learning. Many real-world problems, however, exhibit overly complex dynamics, which makes their full-scale simulation computationally slow. In this paper, we show how to decompose large networked systems of many agents into multiple local components such that we can build separate simulators that run independently and in parallel. To monitor the influence that the different local components exert on one another, each of these simulators is equipped with a learned model that is periodically trained on real trajectories. Our empirical results reveal that distributing the simulation among different processes not only makes it possible to train large multi-agent systems in just a few hours but also helps mitigate the negative effects of simultaneous learning.

Bayesian approaches to reconstructing the evolutionary history of languages rely on the tree model, which assumes that these languages descended from a common ancestor and underwent modifications over time. However, this assumption can be violated to different extents due to contact and other factors. Understanding the degree to which this assumption is violated is crucial for validating the accuracy of phylolinguistic inference. In this paper, we propose a simple sanity check: projecting a reconstructed tree onto a space generated by principal component analysis. By using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that our method effectively visualizes anomalies, particularly in the form of jogging.

Modeling count-valued time series has been receiving increasing attention since count time series naturally arise in physical and social domains. Poisson gamma dynamical systems (PGDSs) are newly-developed methods, which can well capture the expressive latent transition structure and bursty dynamics behind count sequences. In particular, PGDSs demonstrate superior performance in terms of data imputation and prediction, compared with canonical linear dynamical system (LDS) based methods. Despite these advantages, PGDS cannot capture the heterogeneous overdispersed behaviours of the underlying dynamic processes. To mitigate this defect, we propose a negative-binomial-randomized gamma Markov process, which not only significantly improves the predictive performance of the proposed dynamical system, but also facilitates the fast convergence of the inference algorithm. Moreover, we develop methods to estimate both factor-structured and graph-structured transition dynamics, which enable us to infer more explainable latent structure, compared with PGDSs. Finally, we demonstrate the explainable latent structure learned by the proposed method, and show its superior performance in imputing missing data and forecasting future observations, compared with the related models.

Large language models (LLMs) have significantly advanced the field of artificial intelligence. Yet, evaluating them comprehensively remains challenging. We argue that this is partly due to the predominant focus on performance metrics in most benchmarks. This paper introduces CogBench, a benchmark that includes ten behavioral metrics derived from seven cognitive psychology experiments. This novel approach offers a toolkit for phenotyping LLMs' behavior. We apply CogBench to 35 LLMs, yielding a rich and diverse dataset. We analyze this data using statistical multilevel modeling techniques, accounting for the nested dependencies among fine-tuned versions of specific LLMs. Our study highlights the crucial role of model size and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) in improving performance and aligning with human behavior. Interestingly, we find that open-source models are less risk-prone than proprietary models and that fine-tuning on code does not necessarily enhance LLMs' behavior. Finally, we explore the effects of prompt-engineering techniques. We discover that chain-of-thought prompting improves probabilistic reasoning, while take-a-step-back prompting fosters model-based behaviors.

Human knowledge is largely implicit and relational -- do we have a friend in common? can I walk from here to there? In this work, we leverage the combinatorial structure of graphs to quantify human priors over such relational data. Our experiments focus on two domains that have been continuously relevant over evolutionary timescales: social interaction and spatial navigation. We find that some features of the inferred priors are remarkably consistent, such as the tendency for sparsity as a function of graph size. Other features are domain-specific, such as the propensity for triadic closure in social interactions. More broadly, our work demonstrates how nonclassical statistical analysis of indirect behavioral experiments can be used to efficiently model latent biases in the data.