Bayesian Learning
Top-Down Regularization of Deep Belief Networks
Designing a principled and effective algorithm for learning deep architectures is a challenging problem. The current approach involves two training phases: a fully unsupervised learning followed by a strongly discriminative optimization. We suggest a deep learning strategy that bridges the gap between the two phases, resulting in a three-phase learning procedure. We propose to implement the scheme using a method to regularize deep belief networks with top-down information. The network is constructed from building blocks of restricted Boltzmann machines learned by combining bottom-up and top-down sampled signals. A global optimization procedure that merges samples from a forward bottom-up pass and a top-down pass is used.
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This paper introduces a method for finding Bayesian networks for continuous variables in high-dimensional spaces. The paper assumes a Gaussian distribution of any particular random variable when conditioned on its parent nodes. A LASSO objective function is used to construct a sparse set of parent nodes for each random variable, subject to an additional constraint that the resulting structure be an acyclic graph. The network structure constraint is framed as an ordering problem, and an A* search algorithm is proposed which finds a directed acyclic graph which maximizes the LASSO objective function. The LASSO objective function, minus the DAG constraint, is used as an admissible heuristic in the A* search.
A* Lasso for Learning a Sparse Bayesian Network Structure for Continuous Variables
We address the problem of learning a sparse Bayesian network structure for continuous variables in a high-dimensional space. The constraint that the estimated Bayesian network structure must be a directed acyclic graph (DAG) makes the problem challenging because of the huge search space of network structures. Most previous methods were based on a two-stage approach that prunes the search space in the first stage and then searches for a network structure satisfying the DAG constraint in the second stage. Although this approach is effective in a lowdimensional setting, it is difficult to ensure that the correct network structure is not pruned in the first stage in a high-dimensional setting. In this paper, we propose a single-stage method, called A* lasso, that recovers the optimal sparse Bayesian network structure by solving a single optimization problem with A* search algorithm that uses lasso in its scoring system. Our approach substantially improves the computational efficiency of the well-known exact methods based on dynamic programming. We also present a heuristic scheme that further improves the efficiency of A* lasso without significantly compromising the quality of solutions. We demonstrate our approach on data simulated from benchmark Bayesian networks and real data.
Online Learning of Nonparametric Mixture Models via Sequential Variational Approximation
Reliance on computationally expensive algorithms for inference has been limiting the use of Bayesian nonparametric models in large scale applications. To tackle this problem, we propose a Bayesian learning algorithm for DP mixture models. Instead of following the conventional paradigm - random initialization plus iterative update, we take an progressive approach. Starting with a given prior, our method recursively transforms it into an approximate posterior through sequential variational approximation. In this process, new components will be incorporated on the fly when needed. The algorithm can reliably estimate a DP mixture model in one pass, making it particularly suited for applications with massive data. Experiments on both synthetic data and real datasets demonstrate remarkable improvement on efficiency - orders of magnitude speed-up compared to the state-of-the-art.
Multiscale Dictionary Learning for Estimating Conditional Distributions
Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given highdimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner.
Bayesian Mixture Modeling and Inference based Thompson Sampling in Monte-Carlo Tree Search
Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) has been drawing great interest in recent years for planning and learning under uncertainty. One of the key challenges is the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. To address this, we present a novel approach for MCTS using Bayesian mixture modeling and inference based Thompson sampling and apply it to the problem of online planning in MDPs. Our algorithm, named Dirichlet-NormalGamma MCTS (DNG-MCTS), models the uncertainty of the accumulated reward for actions in the search tree as a mixture of Normal distributions. We perform inferences on the mixture in Bayesian settings by choosing conjugate priors in the form of combinations of Dirichlet and NormalGamma distributions and select the best action at each decision node using Thompson sampling. Experimental results confirm that our algorithm advances the state-of-the-art UCT approach with better values on several benchmark problems.
Variational Planning for Graph-based MDPs Qiang Cheng Qiang Liu Feng Chen
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are extremely useful for modeling and solving sequential decision making problems. Graph-based MDPs provide a compact representation for MDPs with large numbers of random variables. However, the complexity of exactly solving a graph-based MDP usually grows exponentially in the number of variables, which limits their application. We present a new variational framework to describe and solve the planning problem of MDPs, and derive both exact and approximate planning algorithms. In particular, by exploiting the graph structure of graph-based MDPs, we propose a factored variational value iteration algorithm in which the value function is first approximated by the multiplication of local-scope value functions, then solved by minimizing a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The KL divergence is optimized using the belief propagation algorithm, with complexity exponential in only the cluster size of the graph. Experimental comparison on different models shows that our algorithm outperforms existing approximation algorithms at finding good policies.
Learning Efficient Random Maximum A-Posteriori Predictors with Non-Decomposable Loss Functions
In this work we develop efficient methods for learning random MAP predictors for structured label problems. In particular, we construct posterior distributions over perturbations that can be adjusted via stochastic gradient methods. We show that any smooth posterior distribution would suffice to define a smooth PAC-Bayesian risk bound suitable for gradient methods. In addition, we relate the posterior distributions to computational properties of the MAP predictors. We suggest multiplicative posteriors to learn super-modular potential functions that accompany specialized MAP predictors such as graph-cuts. We also describe label-augmented posterior models that can use efficient MAP approximations, such as those arising from linear program relaxations.
Learning Stochastic Inverses Andreas Stuhlmüller Jessica Taylor Noah D. Goodman Brain and Cognitive Sciences Department of Computer Science Department of Psychology MIT Stanford University
We describe a class of algorithms for amortized inference in Bayesian networks. In this setting, we invest computation upfront to support rapid online inference for a wide range of queries. Our approach is based on learning an inverse factorization of a model's joint distribution: a factorization that turns observations into root nodes. Our algorithms accumulate information to estimate the local conditional distributions that constitute such a factorization. These stochastic inverses can be used to invert each of the computation steps leading to an observation, sampling backwards in order to quickly find a likely explanation. We show that estimated inverses converge asymptotically in number of (prior or posterior) training samples. To make use of inverses before convergence, we describe the Inverse MCMC algorithm, which uses stochastic inverses to make block proposals for a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We explore the efficiency of this sampler for a variety of parameter regimes and Bayes nets.
Symbolic Opportunistic Policy Iteration for Factored-Action MDPs Alan Fern
This paper addresses the scalability of symbolic planning under uncertainty with factored states and actions. Our first contribution is a symbolic implementation of Modified Policy Iteration (MPI) for factored actions that views policy evaluation as policy-constrained value iteration (VI). Unfortunately, a naïve approach to enforce policy constraints can lead to large memory requirements, sometimes making symbolic MPI worse than VI. We address this through our second and main contribution, symbolic Opportunistic Policy Iteration (OPI), which is a novel convergent algorithm lying between VI and MPI, that applies policy constraints if it does not increase the size of the value function representation, and otherwise performs VI backups. We also give a memory bounded version of this algorithm allowing a space-time tradeoff. Empirical results show significantly improved scalability over state-of-the-art symbolic planners.