With the increasing computational costs associated with deep learning, automated hyperparameter optimization methods, strongly relying on black-box Bayesian optimization (BO), face limitations. Freeze-thaw BO offers a promising grey-box alternative, strategically allocating scarce resources incrementally to different configurations. However, the frequent surrogate model updates inherent to this approach pose challenges for existing methods, requiring retraining or fine-tuning their neural network surrogates online, introducing overhead, instability, and hyper-hyperparameters. In this work, we propose FT-PFN, a novel surrogate for Freeze-thaw style BO. FT-PFN is a prior-data fitted network (PFN) that leverages the transformers' in-context learning ability to efficiently and reliably do Bayesian learning curve extrapolation in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis across three benchmark suites shows that the predictions made by FT-PFN are more accurate and 10-100 times faster than those of the deep Gaussian process and deep ensemble surrogates used in previous work. Furthermore, we show that, when combined with our novel acquisition mechanism (MFPI-random), the resulting in-context freeze-thaw BO method (ifBO), yields new state-of-the-art performance in the same three families of deep learning HPO benchmarks considered in prior work.

The local and global interpretability of various ML models has been studied extensively in recent years. However, despite significant progress in the field, many known results remain informal or lack sufficient mathematical rigor. We propose a framework for bridging this gap, by using computational complexity theory to assess local and global perspectives of interpreting ML models. We begin by proposing proofs for two novel insights that are essential for our analysis: (1) a duality between local and global forms of explanations; and (2) the inherent uniqueness of certain global explanation forms. We then use these insights to evaluate the complexity of computing explanations, across three model types representing the extremes of the interpretability spectrum: (1) linear models; (2) decision trees; and (3) neural networks. Our findings offer insights into both the local and global interpretability of these models. For instance, under standard complexity assumptions such as P != NP, we prove that selecting global sufficient subsets in linear models is computationally harder than selecting local subsets. Interestingly, with neural networks and decision trees, the opposite is true: it is harder to carry out this task locally than globally. We believe that our findings demonstrate how examining explainability through a computational complexity lens can help us develop a more rigorous grasp of the inherent interpretability of ML models.

An example of this is question answering (QA): given a question from the user, the model may provide a brief answer, but it may also follow with supporting facts and explanations, which can vary in form and detail. The user can be satisfied by a wide variety of responses, irrespective of their style or (to some extent) the choice of supporting facts included. Free-form NLG poses significant challenges to uncertainty quantification: some aspects of generation are irrelevant to the task's purpose and best excluded from uncertainty quantification, but it often appears that we are unable to characterize them precisely. If left unaddressed, however, the model's variation in the irrelevant aspects may dominate in standard uncertainty measures such as token-level entropy (Kuhn et al., 2023), making them uninformative about the model's actual performance on the task. Starting from Kuhn et al. (2023), a recent line of work (Kuhn et al., 2023; Lin et al., 2024; Zhang et al., 2023; Aichberger et al., 2024) studied this issue and proposed measuring the "semantic uncertainty" of generation; "semantics" is defined as the equivalence class of textual responses that logically entail one another. Empirical improvements in downstream tasks evidenced their contributions and highlighted the importance of task-specific uncertainty quantification, but important conceptual and practical issues remain. From a practical perspective, semantic equivalence is estimated using machine learning models, resulting in imprecise estimates that do not necessarily define an equivalence relation.

A Bayesian nonparametric model known as the Wishart process has been shown to be effective in this situation, but its inference remains highly challenging. In this work, we introduce a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the Wishart process, and show how it compares to conventional inference approaches, namely MCMC and variational inference. Using simulations we show that SMC sampling results in the most robust estimates and out-of-sample predictions of dynamic covariance. SMC especially outperforms the alternative approaches when using composite covariance functions with correlated parameters. We demonstrate the practical applicability of our proposed approach on a dataset of clinical depression (n = 1), and show how using an accurate representation of the posterior distribution can be used to test for dynamics on covariance.

We investigate how to select the number of communities for weighted networks without a full likelihood modeling. First, we propose a novel weighted degree-corrected stochastic block model (DCSBM), in which the mean adjacency matrix is modeled as the same as in standard DCSBM, while the variance profile matrix is assumed to be related to the mean adjacency matrix through a given variance function. Our method of selection the number of communities is based on a sequential testing framework, in each step the weighed DCSBM is fitted via some spectral clustering method. A key step is to carry out matrix scaling on the estimated variance profile matrix. The resulting scaling factors can be used to normalize the adjacency matrix, from which the testing statistic is obtained. Under mild conditions on the weighted DCSBM, our proposed procedure is shown to be consistent in estimating the true number of communities. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real network data also demonstrate the desirable empirical properties of our method.

A common objective in the analysis of tabular data is estimating the conditional distribution (in contrast to only producing predictions) of a set of "outcome" variables given a set of "covariates", which is sometimes referred to as the "density regression" problem. Beyond estimation on the conditional distribution, the generative ability of drawing synthetic samples from the learned conditional distribution is also desired as it further widens the range of applications. We propose a flow-based generative model tailored for the density regression task on tabular data. Our flow applies a sequence of tree-based piecewise-linear transforms on initial uniform noise to eventually generate samples from complex conditional densities of (univariate or multivariate) outcomes given the covariates and allows efficient analytical evaluation of the fitted conditional density on any point in the sample space. We introduce a training algorithm for fitting the tree-based transforms using a divide-and-conquer strategy that transforms maximum likelihood training of the tree-flow into training a collection of binary classifiers--one at each tree split--under cross-entropy loss. We assess the performance of our method under out-of-sample likelihood evaluation and compare it with a variety of state-of-the-art conditional density learners on a range of simulated and real benchmark tabular datasets. Our method consistently achieves comparable or superior performance at a fraction of the training and sampling budget. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our method's generative ability through an application to generating synthetic longitudinal microbiome compositional data based on training our flow on a publicly available microbiome study.

This research combines MediaPipe and CNNs for the efficient and accurate interpretation of ASL dataset for the real-time detection of sign language. The system presented here captures and processes hands' gestures in real time. the intended purpose was to create a very easy, accurate, and fast way of entering commands without the necessity of touching something.MediaPipe supports one of the powerful frameworks in real-time hand tracking capabilities for the ability to capture and preprocess hand movements, which increases the accuracy of the gesture recognition system. Actually, the integration of CNN with the MediaPipe results in higher efficiency in using the model of real-time processing.The accuracy achieved by the model on ASL datasets is 99.12\%.The model was tested using American Sign Language (ASL) datasets. The results were then compared to those of existing methods to evaluate how well it performed, using established evaluation techniques. The system will have applications in the communication, education, and accessibility domains. Making systems such as described in this paper even better will assist people with hearing impairment and make things accessible to them. We tested the recognition and translation performance on an ASL dataset and achieved better accuracy over previous models.It is meant to the research is to identify the characters that American signs recognize using hand images taken from a web camera by based on mediapipe and CNNs

The limitations of purely neural learning have sparked an interest in probabilistic neurosymbolic models, which combine neural networks with probabilistic logical reasoning. As these neurosymbolic models are trained with gradient descent, we study the complexity of differentiating probabilistic reasoning. We prove that although approximating these gradients is intractable in general, it becomes tractable during training. Furthermore, we introduce WeightME, an unbiased gradient estimator based on model sampling. Under mild assumptions, WeightME approximates the gradient with probabilistic guarantees using a logarithmic number of calls to a SAT solver. Lastly, we evaluate the necessity of these guarantees on the gradient. Our experiments indicate that the existing biased approximations indeed struggle to optimize even when exact solving is still feasible.

Random effects meta-analysis model is an important tool for integrating results from multiple independent studies. However, the standard model is based on the assumption of normal distributions for both random effects and within-study errors, making it susceptible to outlying studies. Although robust modeling using the $t$ distribution is an appealing idea, the existing work, that explores the use of the $t$ distribution only for random effects, involves complicated numerical integration and numerical optimization. In this paper, a novel robust meta-analysis model using the $t$ distribution is proposed ($t$Meta). The novelty is that the marginal distribution of the effect size in $t$Meta follows the $t$ distribution, enabling that $t$Meta can simultaneously accommodate and detect outlying studies in a simple and adaptive manner. A simple and fast EM-type algorithm is developed for maximum likelihood estimation. Due to the mathematical tractability of the $t$ distribution, $t$Meta frees from numerical integration and allows for efficient optimization. Experiments on real data demonstrate that $t$Meta is compared favorably with related competitors in situations involving mild outliers. Moreover, in the presence of gross outliers, while related competitors may fail, $t$Meta continues to perform consistently and robustly.

Neural Network-based active learning (NAL) is a cost-effective data selection technique that utilizes neural networks to select and train on a small subset of samples. While existing work successfully develops various effective or theory-justified NAL algorithms, the understanding of the two commonly used query criteria of NAL: uncertainty-based and diversity-based, remains in its infancy. In this work, we try to move one step forward by offering a unified explanation for the success of both query criteria-based NAL from a feature learning view. Specifically, we consider a feature-noise data model comprising easy-to-learn or hard-to-learn features disrupted by noise, and conduct analysis over 2-layer NN-based NALs in the pool-based scenario. We provably show that both uncertainty-based and diversity-based NAL are inherently amenable to one and the same principle, i.e., striving to prioritize samples that contain yet-to-be-learned features. We further prove that this shared principle is the key to their success-achieve small test error within a small labeled set. Contrastingly, the strategy-free passive learning exhibits a large test error due to the inadequate learning of yet-to-be-learned features, necessitating resort to a significantly larger label complexity for a sufficient test error reduction. Experimental results validate our findings.