Although the sequential tsunami scenario detection framework was validated in our previous work, several tasks remain to be resolved from a practical point of view. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the previous tsunami scenario detection framework using a diverse database consisting of complex fault rupture patterns with heterogeneous slip distributions. Specifically, we compare the effectiveness of scenario superposition to that of the previous most likely scenario detection method. Additionally, how the length of the observation time window influences the accuracy of both methods is analyzed. We utilize an existing database comprising 1771 tsunami scenarios targeting the city Westport (WA, U.S.), which includes synthetic wave height records and inundation distributions as the result of fault rupture in the Cascadia subduction zone. The heterogeneous patterns of slips used in the database increase the diversity of the scenarios and thus make it a proper database for evaluating the performance of scenario superposition. To assess the performance, we consider various observation time windows shorter than 15 minutes and divide the database into five testing and learning sets. The evaluation accuracy of the maximum offshore wave, inundation depth, and its distribution is analyzed to examine the advantages of the scenario superposition method over the previous method. We introduce the dynamic time warping (DTW) method as an additional benchmark and compare its results to that of the Bayesian scenario detection method.

Neural networks surround us, in the form of large language models, speech transcription systems, molecular discovery algorithms, robotics, and much more. Stripped of anything else, neural networks are compositions of differentiable primitives, and studying them means learning how to program and how to interact with these models, a particular example of what is called differentiable programming. This primer is an introduction to this fascinating field imagined for someone, like Alice, who has just ventured into this strange differentiable wonderland. I overview the basics of optimizing a function via automatic differentiation, and a selection of the most common designs for handling sequences, graphs, texts, and audios. The focus is on a intuitive, self-contained introduction to the most important design techniques, including convolutional, attentional, and recurrent blocks, hoping to bridge the gap between theory and code (PyTorch and JAX) and leaving the reader capable of understanding some of the most advanced models out there, such as large language models (LLMs) and multimodal architectures.

Beam search is a standard tree search algorithm when it comes to finding sequences of maximum likelihood, for example, in the decoding processes of large language models. However, it is myopic since it does not take the whole path from the root to a leaf into account. Moreover, it is agnostic to prior knowledge available about the process: For example, it does not consider that the objective being maximized is a likelihood and thereby has specific properties, like being bound in the unit interval. Taking a probabilistic approach, we define a prior belief over the LLMs' transition probabilities and obtain a posterior belief over the most promising paths in each iteration. These beliefs are helpful to define a non-myopic Bayesian-optimization-like acquisition function that allows for a more data-efficient exploration scheme than standard beam search. We discuss how to select the prior and demonstrate in on- and off-model experiments with recent large language models, including Llama-2-7b, that our method achieves higher efficiency than beam search: Our method achieves the same or a higher likelihood while expanding fewer nodes than beam search.

Background: Machine learning (ML) model composition is a popular technique to mitigate shortcomings of a single ML model and to design more effective ML-enabled systems. While ensemble learning, i.e., forwarding the same request to several models and fusing their predictions, has been studied extensively for accuracy, we have insufficient knowledge about how to design energy-efficient ensembles. Objective: We therefore analyzed three types of design decisions for ensemble learning regarding a potential trade-off between accuracy and energy consumption: a) ensemble size, i.e., the number of models in the ensemble, b) fusion methods (majority voting vs. a meta-model), and c) partitioning methods (whole-dataset vs. subset-based training). Methods: By combining four popular ML algorithms for classification in different ensembles, we conducted a full factorial experiment with 11 ensembles x 4 datasets x 2 fusion methods x 2 partitioning methods (176 combinations). For each combination, we measured accuracy (F1-score) and energy consumption in J (for both training and inference). Results: While a larger ensemble size significantly increased energy consumption (size 2 ensembles consumed 37.49% less energy than size 3 ensembles, which in turn consumed 26.96% less energy than the size 4 ensembles), it did not significantly increase accuracy. Furthermore, majority voting outperformed meta-model fusion both in terms of accuracy (Cohen's d of 0.38) and energy consumption (Cohen's d of 0.92). Lastly, subset-based training led to significantly lower energy consumption (Cohen's d of 0.91), while training on the whole dataset did not increase accuracy significantly. Conclusions: From a Green AI perspective, we recommend designing ensembles of small size (2 or maximum 3 models), using subset-based training, majority voting, and energy-efficient ML algorithms like decision trees, Naive Bayes, or KNN.

In recent times, large language models (LLMs) have made significant strides in generating computer code, blurring the lines between code created by humans and code produced by artificial intelligence (AI). As these technologies evolve rapidly, it is crucial to explore how they influence code generation, especially given the risk of misuse in areas like higher education. This paper explores this issue by using advanced classification techniques to differentiate between code written by humans and that generated by ChatGPT, a type of LLM. We employ a new approach that combines powerful embedding features (black-box) with supervised learning algorithms - including Deep Neural Networks, Random Forests, and Extreme Gradient Boosting - to achieve this differentiation with an impressive accuracy of 98%. For the successful combinations, we also examine their model calibration, showing that some of the models are extremely well calibrated. Additionally, we present white-box features and an interpretable Bayes classifier to elucidate critical differences between the code sources, enhancing the explainability and transparency of our approach. Both approaches work well but provide at most 85-88% accuracy. We also show that untrained humans solve the same task not better than random guessing. This study is crucial in understanding and mitigating the potential risks associated with using AI in code generation, particularly in the context of higher education, software development, and competitive programming.

This work starts with the intention of using mathematics to understand the intriguing vulnerability observed by ~\citet{szegedy2013} within artificial neural networks. Along the way, we will develop some novel tools with applications far outside of just the adversarial domain. We will do this while developing a rigorous mathematical framework to examine this problem. Our goal is to build out theory which can support increasingly sophisticated conjecture about adversarial attacks with a particular focus on the so called ``Dimpled Manifold Hypothesis'' by ~\citet{shamir2021dimpled}. Chapter one will cover the history and architecture of neural network architectures. Chapter two is focused on the background of adversarial vulnerability. Starting from the seminal paper by ~\citet{szegedy2013} we will develop the theory of adversarial perturbation and attack. Chapter three will build a theory of persistence that is related to Ricci Curvature, which can be used to measure properties of decision boundaries. We will use this foundation to make a conjecture relating adversarial attacks. Chapters four and five represent a sudden and wonderful digression that examines an intriguing related body of theory for spatial analysis of neural networks as approximations of kernel machines and becomes a novel theory for representing neural networks with bilinear maps. These heavily mathematical chapters will set up a framework and begin exploring applications of what may become a very important theoretical foundation for analyzing neural network learning with spatial and geometric information. We will conclude by setting up our new methods to address the conjecture from chapter 3 in continuing research.

In this dissertation I would like to guide the reader to the research on dialogue but more precisely the research I have conducted during my career since my PhD thesis. Starting from modular architectures with machine learning/deep learning and reinforcement learning to end-to-end deep neural networks. Besides my work as research associate, I also present the work I have supervised in the last years. I review briefly the state of the art and highlight the open research problems on conversational agents. Afterwards, I present my contribution to Task-Oriented Dialogues (TOD), both as research associate and as the industrial supervisor of CIFRE theses. I discuss conversational QA. Particularly, I present the work of two PhD candidates Thibault Cordier and Sebastien Montella; as well as the work of the young researcher Quentin Brabant. Finally, I present the scientific project, where I discuss about Large Language Models (LLMs) for Task-Oriented Dialogue and Multimodal Task-Oriented Dialogue.

The growing use of deep learning in safety-critical applications, such as medical imaging, has raised concerns about limited labeled data, where this demand is amplified as model complexity increases, posing hurdles for domain experts to annotate data. In response to this, active learning (AL) is used to efficiently train models with limited annotation costs. In the context of deep neural networks (DNNs), AL often uses confidence or probability outputs as a score for selecting the most informative samples. However, modern DNNs exhibit unreliable confidence outputs, making calibration essential. We propose an AL framework that self-calibrates the confidence used for sample selection during the training process, referred to as Confident Active Learning with Integrated CalibratiOn (CALICO). CALICO incorporates the joint training of a classifier and an energy-based model, instead of the standard softmax-based classifier. This approach allows for simultaneous estimation of the input data distribution and the class probabilities during training, improving calibration without needing an additional labeled dataset. Experimental results showcase improved classification performance compared to a softmax-based classifier with fewer labeled samples. Furthermore, the calibration stability of the model is observed to depend on the prior class distribution of the data.

Nowadays, neural network (NN) and deep learning (DL) techniques are widely adopted in many applications, including recommender systems. Given the sparse and stochastic nature of collaborative filtering (CF) data, recent works have critically analyzed the effective improvement of neural-based approaches compared to simpler and often transparent algorithms for recommendation. Previous results showed that NN and DL models can be outperformed by traditional algorithms in many tasks. Moreover, given the largely black-box nature of neural-based methods, interpretable results are not naturally obtained. Following on this debate, we first present a transparent probabilistic model that topologically organizes user and product latent classes based on the review information. In contrast to popular neural techniques for representation learning, we readily obtain a statistical, visualization-friendly tool that can be easily inspected to understand user and product characteristics from a textual-based perspective. Then, given the limitations of common embedding techniques, we investigate the possibility of using the estimated interpretable quantities as model input for a rating prediction task. To contribute to the recent debates, we evaluate our results in terms of both capacity for interpretability and predictive performances in comparison with popular text-based neural approaches. The results demonstrate that the proposed latent class representations can yield competitive predictive performances, compared to popular, but difficult-to-interpret approaches.

More precisely, we observe that the epistemic uncertainty In many applications of Machine Learning, optimizing collapses literally in the presence of large models and solely the performance metrics of the predictive model, sometimes also of little training data, while we expect the such as the accuracy, can result in overconfident interpretations exact opposite behaviour. This phenomenon, which we call of erroneous outcomes, and thus, hazardous decisions "epistemic uncertainty hole", is all the more problematic as in case of critical domains. Therefore, being able to map the it undermines the entire applicative potential of BDL, which model outputs to some uncertainty quantification metrics, if is based precisely on the use of epistemic uncertainty. As well calibrated, is essential from a decision making point of an example, we evaluate the practical consequences of this view. When dealing with Deep Learning models, Bayesian uncertainty hole on one of the main applications of BDL, Deep Learning (BDL) [11, 12, 18, 10, 2], i.e. the application namely the detection of out-of-distribution samples. of Bayesian inference to deep neural networks, appears to be one of the keys to estimate such well-calibrated uncertainties.